Browse by: "2021"
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Body-mass index (BMI) tends to follow a typical trajectory over the life-course of an individual, increasing in early life while decreasing after middle age. To be able to reflect these trends in the OECD Strategic Public Health Planning for Non-Communicable Diseases (SPHeP-NCDs) model, this paper analyses longitudinal BMI data from 22 countries to build a mixed, autoregressive model predicting an individual’s BMI based on their sex, age and previous BMI. The resulting model shows how young people are likely to see an increase in BMI year-on-year, even if they already have overweight or obesity. It also shows that that a healthy weight in childhood does not protect against future overweight, as BMI continues to increase well into adulthood even for children who start off with a healthy weight. The results of this analysis will be incorporated in the OECD SPHeP NCDs model, to better simulate the longer-term impact of interventions, in particular interventions targeting childhood obesity.
This report presents a methodology to classify skill requirements in online job postings into a pre-existing expert-driven taxonomy of broader skill categories. The proposed approach uses a semi-supervised Machine Learning algorithm and relies on the actual meaning and definition of the skills. It allows for the classification of more than 17 000 unique skill keywords contained in the Burning Glass dataset into 61 categories. The outcome of the classification exercise is validated using O*NET information on skills by occupations, and by benchmarking the results of some empirical descriptive exercises against the existing literature. Compared to a manual classification, the proposed approach organises large amounts of skills information in an analytically tractable form, and with considerable savings in time and human resources.
This brief presents a factual and retrospective analysis of the relationships between urbanisation and demography in North Africa and West Africa. It shows that the process of demographic transition is now fully underway in this region. North of the Sahara the new demographic equilibrium features a birth rate higher than expected, according to theoretical model predictions, resulting in continuous population growth. Over 70% of the population now lives in cities, a number that is expected to continue to rise in the coming decades. South of the Sahara all countries have seen death rates plummet, followed by a decrease in birth rates. The gap between the change in the two variables has contributed to spectacular natural growth in the space of a few decades. This growth is occurring in parallel with a redistribution of populations to urban areas, which are now home to close to one of every two inhabitants. West African urbanisation is likely to accelerate the social, economic and political changes that favour the demographic transition. One of the main challenges facing the region is the question of how to reduce the regional variations seen in fertility rates between the continent’s urban and rural areas.
The OECD Higher Education Policy Survey (HEPS) is a new instrument developed by the OECD Higher Education Policy Team to gather comparative information on system features and characteristics of policies across OECD jurisdictions, to support policy analysis and peer learning. The first HEPS was fielded in 2020, to support the ongoing thematic project on Resourcing Higher Education. This paper presents a comparative analysis of the results of the survey, examining student support systems, institutional funding mechanisms, human resource policies and higher education resource governance across the 29 OECD jurisdictions responding to the survey.
Cette note propose une analyse factuelle et rétrospective des relations entre urbanisation et démographie en Afrique du Nord et de l’Ouest. Elle montre que les pays de la région sont résolument engagés dans le processus de transition démographique. Au nord du Sahara, le nouvel équilibre démographique est marqué par une natalité plus forte que ce que le modèle théorique prédit, avec pour conséquence une croissance continue de la population. Plus de 70% de la population vit désormais en ville et cette proportion devrait continuer à croître dans les prochaines décennies. Au sud du Sahara, tous les pays ont connu une chute rapide de la mortalité suivie d’un recul de la natalité. Le décalage entre l’évolution des deux variables a contribué à un accroissement naturel spectaculaire en l’espace de quelques décennies. Cette croissance s’accompagne d’une redistribution des populations en faveur des zones urbaines, qui accueillent désormais près d’un habitant sur deux. L’urbanisation que connaît l’Afrique de l’Ouest est susceptible d’accélérer les changements sociaux, économiques et politiques qui favorisent la transition démographique. L’un des défis principaux est de parvenir à réduire les variations régionales observées dans les taux de fertilité entre zones urbaines et rurales du continent.
Governments are created and run by humans, who can experience the same behavioural biases and barriers as individuals in society. Therefore, it makes sense to explore how behavioural insights (BI) can be applied to the governance of regulatory policy making, and not just to the design of regulations themselves. Applying BI can help improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the decision-making process, which can, in turn, help improve regulatory decisions. This paper maps the ways in which barriers and biases can affect the institutions, processes and tools of regulatory governance, with a focus on regulatory oversight bodies and regulatory management tools. It concludes with practical ways governments can translate these findings into research and reforms that can help future-proof regulatory policy making and ensure it is agile, responsive and fit for tackling important and complex policy challenges.
Infrastructure investment has been at the forefront of the political debate for more than two decades. Despite decades of theoretical study and experimentation in practice, “how to” actually procure infrastructure still lacks a complete and evidence-based guide, relying heavily on subjective perception and judgement. Procurement strategy mistakes can substantially increase the cost of infrastructure, delay its delivery, or reduce its quality and value to the public.
The OECD has trialled a new evidence- based tool to inform procurement decisions on major projects called Support Tool for Effective Procurement Strategy or STEPS. The tool was applied toon two major road projects in Norway. STEPS can improve the efficiency and effectiveness of public procurement of infrastructure and beyond.
It should improve the Value for Money propositions of both traditional and privately financed infrastructure projects. It is also an effective tool against bid rigging, the effects of abnormally low bids, and corruption in public procurement. Because the procurement choices of the public sector impact the market structure of the infrastructure supplier market, it could be considered an instrument of implicit market regulation, working against market concentration. STEPS thus supports a range of OECD recommendations and G20 positions on infrastructure governance, private investment in infrastructure, and procurement in general.
Following the COVID-19 shock to economies and societies, many countries are renewing infrastructure investment as a stimulus measure. Such investments present an opportunity for governments to address short-term infrastructure challenges through maintenance spending while building resilient and sustainable infrastructure for the future. Infrastructure resilience and maintenance requires a multidimensional approach, considering a range of factors and stakeholders at the local, regional, national and global levels to identify trade-offs among objectives and enable more robust policy choices. Drawing on examples and case studies, this report provides a framework for optimising existing infrastructure assets and building new resilient infrastructure. It also includes strategies for ensuring quality and performance over an asset’s lifecycle.
Sub-national governments have a key role in delivering on national and international biodiversity commitments. Drawing on policy practices from Scotland (UK), France and other signatories to the Edinburgh Declaration, this paper provides an overview and analysis of sub-national strategies, plans and mechanisms to ensure policy coherence and co-ordination. It then examines the policy instruments that subnational governments can leverage to deliver positive biodiversity outcomes. The paper highlights, among other things, the need to: develop clear and measurable biodiversity targets at sub-national level; incorporate biodiversity considerations into sub-national climate action plans and urban, rural and regional development strategies, plans and instruments; and promote nature-based solutions at a sub-national level to harness synergies between climate mitigation, climate adaptation and biodiversity.
This article discusses why the composition of emergency fiscal packages in response to the COVID-19 pandemic make it important for governments to monitor and manage their balance sheets going forward. It analyses current practices with transparency and risk analysis concerning balance sheet-based measures drawn from case studies of nine OECD countries. It then identifies further steps governments should consider to increase transparency and strengthen risk analysis on COVID-19 related balance sheet-based policies that will help to strengthen fiscal frameworks.
This article uses bureaumetric methods and five years of data on the UK civil service to test several key claims about shared service implementation on a larger scale. It begins by examining organisational dualisms and the promises and challenges of shared services. It then describes the United Kingdom’s case, and develops the bureaumetric method for assessing reform progress. Finally, it presents the findings from the study and discusses implications for research and practice.
This review discusses the significant progress made since the last OECD budget review of Bulgaria in 2009. It begins with a discussion of the institutional and legislative framework for budgeting before addressing fiscal policy and medium-term planning. It then turns to the state budget formulation and execution before discussing transparency and openness in budgeting. It concludes with a discussion of parliament’s role in the budget process and external oversight. Recommendations are made for each of these topics.
This review examines the successes and challenges for the United Kingdom’s Office for Budget Responsibility. It discusses its institutional context, its resources, its publications and underlying methodologies, and its impact on the public debate.
This article presents a brief overview of the fiscal rules framework in Brazil. It introduces the concept and stages of implementing a medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF) and suggests ways to refine Brazil’s incipient medium-term fiscal framework. It then proposes to bring the Brazilian budget process more in line with the best international fiscal planning practices, with the adoption of an MTEF, in order to incorporate the medium-term perspective into the allocation of public resources. By way of conclusion, it describes the benefits of having an MTEF directing public sector accounts.
SMEs and entrepreneurs are of critical importance for reaching climate objectives. They have a significant environmental footprint on aggregate, but also make important contributions to reaching net zero through their innovations and greening efforts. This paper discusses the importance of taking entrepreneurs and SMEs into account in climate and environmental policies. It analyses the drivers and barriers of green entrepreneurship and the greening of SMEs, and discusses policy options to support these objectives.
The OECD Career Readiness project makes use of quantitative evidence to investigate how teenage career-related activities and attitudes are associated with better adult employment outcomes. Review of multiple national longitudinal datasets confirms 11 indicators of better outcomes linked to the ways in which teenagers explore, experience and think about their potential futures in work while in secondary education. This Policy Brief summarises findings from three OECD working papers. It describes the project methodology and results.
The OECD Career Readiness project makes use of quantitative evidence to investigate how teenage career-related activities and attitudes are associated with better adult employment outcomes. Review of multiple national longitudinal datasets confirms 11 indicators of better outcomes linked to the ways in which teenagers explore, experience and think about their potential futures in work while in secondary education. This Policy Brief summarises findings and draws out implications for secondary schools, including 14 questions for consideration by guidance counsellors and school leaders linked to the indicators.
One of the key objectives of Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) is to instigate design for the environment. In collective EPR schemes, the fee schedule set by Producer Responsibility Organisations (PROs) is typically quite simple and provides weak incentives for design change by producers. Fee modulation, changing fees paid by producers in a collective EPR scheme based on product design, can provide producers with stronger design incentives, but adds complexity to the system. The paper defines a classification for fee modulation (by criteria and methodology) and discusses potential challenges and opportunities. It concludes with key policy insights that can further stimulate this emerging policy approach.
The OECD Career Readiness project makes use of quantitative evidence to identify how teenage career-related activities and attitudes are linked with better adult employment outcomes. Review of multiple national longitudinal datasets confirms that teenage experiences of the workplace through part-time working and volunteering are routinely associated with better prospects in work during adulthood. While the evidence base is much weaker, it is also likely that students who undertake workplace placements through their schools can have much to gain. This policy brief draws on evidence from longitudinal studies and beyond to explore the following questions:
Why is it important for secondary school students to have first-hand experience of work?
What difference does workplace experience make?
And how can schools and education systems best optimise its benefits?
The paper analyses the role of loan guarantee programmes following the COVID-19 outbreak in alleviating firm distress as well as their broader impacts on productivity via reallocation, relying on a simulation model and econometric estimations. The simulation exercise relies on a simple cash-flow accounting model, a large dataset reporting balance sheets of firms located in 14 countries and granular data on the magnitude of the COVID-19 shock. Our findings suggest that i) the COVID-19 shock had the potential to seriously distort market selection; and ii) policy actions corrected up to 30% of the inefficiency of market selection in the short-term, shielding many high productive firms from distress and supporting zombie firms only to a limited extent. The econometric exercise, based on historical data and standard models of dynamic allocative efficiency, examines how loan guarantees may shape the efficiency through which resources are allocated across firms of different productivity levels over the medium-term. Results suggest that, over the 2007-2018 period, increases in large-scale loan guarantee schemes were associated with weaker reallocation of credit and labour from low to high productivity firms. However, these effects are found to be more benign in intangible-intensive sectors and even positive for smaller scale programmes. Overall, engineering an effective exit strategy from these schemes, preserving their benefits while reducing their drawbacks through a gradual and state contingent phasing out, is critical to foster the recovery of the corporate sector. Further, monitoring debt overhang risks and facilitating firms’ entry and digital diffusion are relevant complementary challenges to address once COVID-19 related support is withdrawn.