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This paper develops a new large-scale firm-level simulation model, the Corporate Sector Agent-Based (CAB) Model, which is applied to analyse the COVID-19 shock and policy options in Barnes, Hillman, MacDonald and Wharf (2021). Agent-based models (ABMs) simulate the interaction of autonomous agents to generate emergent aggregate behaviours. The CAB model takes into account: heterogeneity across firms; a realistic customer-supplier network; interactions between firms; rule-of-thumb behaviour by firms and bankruptcy constraints.

For decades, governments have relied on space systems for intelligence gathering and satellite connectivity in remote areas, but today’s situation marks a distinct break with the past. Extended coverage, advances in digital technologies and, importantly, free and/or commercial availability of space products allow many new uses by both government and non-government actors. This brings important benefits for users and citizens, but also leads to new challenges in terms of data management, infrastructure and supply chain resilience, and international co-operation. This paper uses illustrations from the war in Ukraine to highlight recent developments in the sector, placing them in a broader context of digitalisation and government space investments. It discusses the growing importance of space technologies for society and provides policy options and resources from other strains of OECD work.

This paper provides a new measure of human capital using PISA and PIAAC surveys, and mean years of schooling. The new measure is a cohort-weighted average of past PISA scores (representing the quality of education) of the working age population and the corresponding mean years of schooling (representing the quantity of education). In contrast to the existing literature, the relative weights of each component are not imposed or calibrated but directly estimated. The paper finds that the elasticity of the stock of human capital with respect to the quality of education is three to four times larger than for the quantity of education. The new measure has a strong link to productivity with the potential for productivity gains being much greater from improvements in the quality than quantity component of human capital. The magnitude of these potential gains in MFP is comparable to a similarly standardised improvement in product market regulation, but the effects materialise with much longer lags. The paper demonstrates through the example of pre-primary education, how to simulate the impact of a particular reform to education policy on human capital and productivity.

This paper calculates new measures of human capital. Contrary to the existing literature, they are based on realistic rates of return to education, which are allowed to vary substantially across countries and to some extent over time. The new measures perform well in regression analysis explaining productivity across OECD countries and over time. In OECD samples, coefficient estimates are broadly consistent with the private returns underlying the construction of the new measures of human capital. In a wider sample of countries, most estimates imply additional positive social returns.

This paper develops a novel classification of high-polluting occupations for a large sample of European countries. Unlike previous efforts in the literature, the classification exploits country-level data on air polluting emission intensity by industry. The country-level data allows to capture important cross-country differences, due to differences in technology and in production focus. Applying the new classification to European Labour Force Survey data shows that, on average across the countries covered, about 4% of workers are employed in high-polluting jobs, ranging from 9% in Czechia and the Slovak Republic to around 2% in Austria. These shares do not exhibit any clear decreasing trend over the past decade. High-polluting jobs are unequally distributed, being over-represented among men, workers with lower and medium educational attainment and those living in rural areas.

Empirically, the income share is procyclical for the low-income groups and acyclical for the top 5%. To generate this kind of behaviour in a DGE business cycle model, we consider overlapping generations and elastic labour supply in addition to those elements considered by Castañeda et al. (1998). We also analyse a model with rigid wages. However, these features do not help to constitute a major improvement vis-a-vis their model.

JEL classification: C68, D31, E32
Keywords: Income distribution, business cycle, overlapping generations, unemployment, pensions

The performance-based approach to the regulation of nuclear power generation for civilian use is an approach that requires a certain outcome but provides the regulated entity with the flexibility to determine how it can achieve this outcome.1 Such an approach is currently being employed, for example, in Canada, France and the United Kingdom. While some have argued that “significant work remains to be done before performance-based approaches can realize their full potential in the regulation of nuclear power plants”,2 a limited number of analyses have been dedicated to the approach.3 The author was thus inspired to share Canadian expertise in this area, as well as a description of the approach developed in Canada in recent decades.

This report analyses the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in firms across 11 countries. Based on harmonised statistical code (AI diffuse) applied to official firm-level surveys, it finds that the use of AI is prevalent in ICT and Professional Services and more widespread across large – and to some extent across young – firms. AI users tend to be more productive, especially the largest ones. Complementary assets, including ICT skills, high-speed digital infrastructure, and the use of other digital technologies, which are significantly related to the use of AI, appear to play a critical role in the productivity advantages of AI users.

The report presents new cross-country descriptive evidence on innovative start-ups and related venture capital investments drawing upon Crunchbase, a new dataset that is unprecedented in terms of scope and comprehensiveness. The analysis employs a mix of different statistical techniques (descriptive graphics, econometric analysis, and machine learning) to highlight a number of findings. First, there are significant cross-country differences in the professional and educational background of start-ups’ founders, notably the share of founders with previous academic experience and in the share of “serial entrepreneurs”. Conversely, the founders’ average age is rather constant across countries, but shows a fair degree of variability across sectors. Second, IP assets, and in particular the presence of an inventor in the team of founders, are strongly associated with start-ups’ success. Finally, female founders are less likely to receive funding, receive lower amounts when they do receive financing, and have a lower probability of successful exit, when other factors are controlled for.

This paper presents a profile of the agency responsible for education evaluation and assessment in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: the Education and Training Evaluation Commission (ETEC). It draws on research conducted by the OECD as part of a three-year project to develop the technical capacity of ETEC and benchmark its policies and practices with those of similar agencies in OECD countries. The paper describes ETEC’s mission and structure; its remit, activities and instruments; and the resources it has to fulfil its mandate. In doing so, the paper traces the Commission’s trajectory from its establishment to the present day. It aims to be of interest to education policymakers and researchers in OECD and partner countries, providing information on both the Saudi education system and evaluation and assessment agencies internationally – topics that have received relatively little attention in education literature.

Mexico is well integrated into global value chains (GVCs). Its exports as a share of GDP have tripled since 1988. Mexico’s participation in GVCs is mainly driven by backward linkages, i.e. the share of foreign value added in Mexico’s total exports is large, which reflects Mexico’s importance in assembling processes in some manufacturing sectors. Conversely, forward participation, i.e. to what extent trading partners exports incorporate Mexico’s value added, remains low. Ongoing nearshoring trends provide opportunities to strengthen and improve Mexico’s participation in GVCs, and to move up in the value chain and develop stronger forward linkages, which are associated to higher productivity growth. This paper zooms into the most recent developments to assess whether Mexico is already benefiting from these trends. The empirical analysis suggests that Mexico’s wide trade agreements and low tariffs, will help, but improving the business environment and the rule of law, a better educated workforce, or increasing female labour participation would also facilitate deepening forward GVCs linkages.

Irish authorities are reshaping the nation’s higher education landscape, creating a network of technological universities that merge, build on, and extend the mission of the country’s institutes of technology. Its emerging technological universities are tasked with providing research-informed teaching and learning across all levels of higher education, linking their programmes to the needs of their region’s citizens, businesses and professions. This paper was commissioned by Ireland’s Higher Education Authority and Department for Further and Higher Education, Research and Innovation, who asked the OECD to identify a set of benchmark higher education institutions from other OECD countries that can provide insights for the development of future Irish technological universities through examination of their human resource policies, career paths and organisational structures. Drawing upon this evidence, and analysis of current policies in Ireland’s institutes of technology and technological universities, this analysis identifies options for new career and employment contracts and organisation structures.

This article reviews the empirical literature combining economic and environmental performance data at the micro-level, i.e. firm- or facility-level. The literature has generally found a positive and statistically significant correlation between economic performance, as measured by stock market returns, and environmental performance, as measured by emissions of pollutants or adoption of international environmental standards. The main reason for this finding seems to be that firms that reduce their material and energy costs experience both better economic performance and lower emissions. There is also evidence that greener firms are able to attract more productive employees and face smaller costs of capital, and that the introduction of green products enhances firms’ profitability.
Only a small and recent literature analyses the joint causal impact of environmental regulations on environmental and economic performance. Interestingly, this literature shows that environmental regulations tend to improve environmental performance while not weakening economic performance. However, the evidence so far is limited to a handful of environmental regulations that are not extremely stringent, so the result cannot be easily generalized. More research is needed to assess the joint effects of environmental regulations on environmental and economic performance, to explore the heterogeneity of these effects across sectors, countries and types of policies, and to understand which policy designs allow improving environmental quality while not altering the economic performance of regulated businesses.

The development of the visitor economy faces challenges not only from global economic conditions, reduced budgets, fluctuating exchange rates, but also deeper underlying economic and technological shifts which create further market turbulence. In response, new models for linking tourism policy, tourism marketing and product development, including digital strategies are being explored in a number of countries. The report examines some of the current challenges and opportunities for public authorities responsible for the marketing and promotion of tourism, including evolving funding sources, partnership opportunities, promotion strategies, and governance arrangements. The report benefitted from significant contributions from 16 countries: Australia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Iceland, Israel, Italy, Latvia, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia, Sweden, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. Country case studies provide examples of policy and business initiatives to address current and emerging challenges.

French

The paper discusses the implications of the low-carbon transition for workers and the relevant lessons-learnt in previous industrial restructuring experiences. The evidence suggests that, while climate policies are likely to have a modest impact on aggregate employment, workers in certain regions and industries can be more severely affected. The transition may also have gender-differentiated impacts: men represent the largest share of the workforce of most negatively affected industries (e.g. coal-mining) while the growth of the renewable power generation sector, which exhibits a relatively more gender-balanced workforce, suggests that female employment may increase in the traditionally male-dominated energy sector. Lessons from the case-studies underline that a suite of polices is necessary to manage the structural adjustment process, including structural reforms and skills policies. Importantly, the low-carbon transition differentiates itself from previous restructuring experiences because of its policy-driven nature and the possibility to finance structural adjustment measures through carbon-pricing revenues.

The paper describes revisions to the trend labour efficiency component of the production function underpinning long-term economic scenarios. The main goal of the revision is to add more policy and institutional determinants in the equation to enrich the scenarios that can be constructed. In the proposed equation, equilibrium trend labour efficiency depends on a broad measure of the quality of institutions and governance (the World’s Bank rule of law indicator), human capital (based on average years of schooling attainment), product market regulation (PMR), openness to trade adjusted for country size, the stability of the macroeconomic framework (based on inflation and its variance), income inequality (based on GINI coefficients) as well as domestic and global research and development (via accumulated stocks of R&D). Apart from the innovation effects, the sizes of the other effects are jointly estimated in a conditional convergence framework with a sample of about 120 countries, without the use of country fixed effects. Rule of law and openness are also estimated to influence the speed of convergence toward the long-term equilibrium.

The paper describes revisions to the trend employment component of the production function underpinning long-term economic scenarios. Starting with historical age and sex-specific employment rates, a novel approach is developed to correct for cyclical effects using the country-level employment gap while allowing the different sex and age groups to exhibit different sensitivities to the economic cycle. From the resulting cyclically adjusted age/sex-specific employment rates, trend entry and exit rates into/out of employment are computed using the traditional cohort approach. The different employment propensities of existing cohorts are then used to project future employment rates, with entry and exit rates of new cohorts assumed to mimic the most recent ones. To construct scenarios, the model allows a number of policy settings to influence employment rate projections, notably the legal retirement age, tax wedges, family benefits, etc. The sizes of these effects are sourced from recent OECD work on the quantification of structural reforms, and are also specific to sex and age groups. The trend total employment projection is obtained by aggregating age/sex-specific employment rate projections using external demographic projections.

This paper describes the methodology and data sources used to build a set of matrices mapping the location of profit and economic activity of multinational enterprises (MNEs) across jurisdictions. These matrices were originally designed for the purpose of assessing the effect of proposals for the reform of international corporate tax arrangements under consideration by the OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS). They could also serve other analytical purposes in the future. The set consists of a profit matrix and three matrices focusing on indicators of economic activity (turnover, tangible assets and payroll). Each matrix contains data spanning more than 200 jurisdictions (matrix rows) and broken down across more than 200 jurisdictions of MNE ultimate parent (matrix columns), focusing primarily on year 2016. The matrices combine data from a range of sources in a consistent framework, including newly available aggregated Country-by-Country Report (CbCR) data, the ORBIS database, and the OECD Analytical AMNE database. Gaps in data are filled using extrapolations based on macroeconomic data, including via a sophisticated procedure to extrapolate profit based on foreign direct investment (FDI) data. Extensive benchmarking has been undertaken to ensure consistency across the data sources and extrapolations used in the matrices.

This paper presents a simulation framework developed to assess the impact of ageing on the financial sustainability of the Czech pension system. It accompanies the publication OECD Reviews of Pension Systems: Czech Republic. The framework has two components: a macroeconomic model to project long-term GDP and a cohort model to simulate the evolution of pensions. The macroeconomic model takes into account the evolution of the labour force and productivity. The cohort model simulates the career of a representative sample of the working-age population and their path in retirement. It replicates and projects the main features of the labour market, in particular, participation, wage and unemployment. It captures non-linear features of the pension system and distributional effects. The model estimates and simulates the main demographic variables of the pension system, in particular, the number of old-age pensioners and disability pensioners. It allows to simulate different policy options to close the financing gap of the pension system.

Pension spending is projected to increase to 11.9% of GDP in 2060 from 8.2% in 2018, leading to increasing deficits of the pension system. Among the different options to close the financing gap, further increasing the retirement age after 2030 in line with life expectancy gains appears to be the most efficient policy measure to boost growth and reduce the financing needs. However, additional measures would be needed to close the financing gap of the pension system.

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