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The increase in labour disputes in China coincided with the end of the era of surplus labour. While labour was abundant in rural hinterlands, manufacturing firms could rely on cheap labour as migrant workers would still be better off than if they stayed at home. As it became increasingly difficult for manufacturing firms in urban centres and the coastal provinces to recruit labour, wages were bid up throughout the economy. This process however, was all but smooth, as the increase in labour disputes shows. What is needed is a set of labour market institutions that help the transition in labour markets to be not only efficient, but also peaceful and equitable.
This paper by Cai Fan and Wang Meiyan, from the Institute of Population and Labour Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, documents the increase in labour disputes in China and seeks to understand their determinants. The main finding is that the increase in disputes is linked to a change in regime in the labour market with the end of surplus labour. The paper therefore calls for further advances in establishing labour market institutions to adapt to the new labour market situation. The paper finds that disputes result from a better awareness of rights on the part of workers and that they are more common in thriving and export-oriented areas. The authors go on to discuss the Chinese government’s responses to the growing problem, from pro-active labour market policy to increasing the importance of collective contracts. In doing so, this paper provides an important building block in the understanding of the role of labour market institutions for social cohesion.
The paper presents the results of the first application of cyclical analysis to economic activity in Serbia. The analysis refers to the period 2001-07, which marked the start of democratic and economic reforms, since short term fluctuations in economic activity prior to 2001 were the result of various exogenous shocks like hyperinflation, wars and international economic sanctions. In the post-reform period, the Serbian economy exhibits characteristics of a small, open, marketoriented economy. Economic activity shows an upward trend, and with special regard to growth dynamics and their cyclical properties, cyclical analysis is relevant. In analysing cyclical fluctuations in economic activity, a deviation-from-trend approach is applied. For dating turning points in economic activity, the monthly gross domestic product (GDP) is used since the coincident properties of the index of industrial production could not be statistically verified for Serbia as there were a small number of quarterly observations available for GDP.
JEL Classification: C22, C29, C49, F43, O49
Keywords: Time-Frequency Analysis, Coherence, Growth Rates, Business Cycles
This paper examines rationales, aspirations, assumptions and methods shaping an international assessment of learning outcomes: the OECD’s Assessment of Higher Education Learning Outcomes (AHELO) feasibility study. The first part of the paper is analytical, exploring formative rationales, and shaping contexts and normative perspectives that frame the evaluation. The discussion then turns to review scientific and practical challenges involved in an assessment of the study, which will be tested on an international scale, and to sketch ideas and innovations being created in response. In conclusion, the paper offers reflective suggestions for positioning AHELO in global higher education, should the initiative prove feasible.
JEL Classification: E32; C22
Keywords: Hodrick-Prescott band-pass filter; Composite leading indicators.© beawolf - Fotolia.com
JEL classification: C53, E37, C83.
Keywords: Survey professional forecast, uncertainty, disagreement, probability distribution.
JEL Classifications: E31, E32, F41
Keywords: Oil prices, new Keynesian open economy model