1887

Oil Dependence

Is Transport Running Out of Affordable Fuel?

image of Oil Dependence

Oil consumption is increasingly concentrated in transport and relatively limited fluctuations in transport demand can have increasingly significant effects on oil prices. This Round Table assesses the policy instruments available to address oil security and climate change and examines their interaction with measures to manage congestion and mitigate local air pollution. A number of incompatibilities and trade-offs are identified underlining the importance of integrated policy making. The report includes an examination of the factors that drive oil prices in the short and long term and a discussion of the outlook for oil supply.

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Future Prices and Availability of Transport Fuels

International Transport Forum

It is a truism that future prices of energy for transportation will be determined by the forces of supply and demand. For transport fuels, these forces have entered a crucial phase that is likely to persist for several decades. Oil production from conventional resources outside of the OPEC countries will peak within a few years. Unconventional fossil resources that can be exploited at current prices, resources whose early development is already well underway, pose an even greater threat to the global climate than conventional fuels. To bring these resources to the market at a rate to match the growth in demand for mobility fuels in the developed and developing economies will require massive, risky investments. Serious risks are posed by the environmental acceptability of these fuels as well as by the fact that a sudden downturn in world oil prices would turn them into stranded assets.

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