The oil market has changed dramatically over the past eight years, with prices rising from $10 to over $90/barrel. The dynamics of the industry have changed, but there is still considerable debate over whether this represents a paradigmatic shift of supply and demand conditions or is simply a result of longer term cyclical factors. Non-OECD oil demand growth is running three times faster than in the OECD, and is set to surpass the OECD in volumetric terms in the middle of the next decade. Non-OPEC supplies have plateaued over the past five years and look set to remain at such levels for the coming five years. Understanding the drivers behind these shifts gives an insight into the prospects for the coming years. However, even looking five years forward, there are many variables which could affect the outcome. These forecasts therefore provide a guide to the future, but should not be expected to project supply and demand with pinpoint accuracy. Equally important is the need to understand the uncertainties which lie behind any forecast that could change the final outcome.