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2018 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2018 Issue 1

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2018 Issue 1

The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.

Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment, a special chapter on policy challenges from closer international trade and financial integration, and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country and a statistical annex.

 

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General assessment of the macroeconomic situation

The expansion is set to persist over the next two years, with global GDP projected to rise by close to 4% in 2018 and 2019. Growth in the OECD area is set to remain around 2½ per cent per annum, helped by fiscal easing in many economies, and will strengthen to close to 5% elsewhere (). Although job growth is likely to ease in advanced economies, the OECD‑wide unemployment rate is projected to fall to its lowest level since 1980, with labour shortages intensifying in some countries. Wage and price inflation are accordingly projected to rise, but only moderately, given the apparent muted impact of resource pressures on inflation in recent years and the scope left in some economies to strengthen labour force participation and hours worked. Global investment and trade rebounded last year, and are projected to continue to expand steadily in the next two years, provided trade tensions do not escalate further. Even so, the prospects for strong and sustained improvements in living standards in the medium term remain weaker than prior to the crisis in both advanced and emerging market economies, reflecting less favourable demographic trends and the consequences for potential output growth of the past decade of sub‑par investment and productivity outcomes.

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