The global crisis has pushed South Africa into recession. Growth will likely be negative in 2009 before recovering in 2010, when policy stimulus, global recovery and the staging of the soccer World Cup will boost activity. The output gap will help keep inflation moving downward, returning to the target range in 2010. Current account deficits will shrink somewhat on account of lower domestic demand, but will remain sizeable, unless capital inflows weaken again, forcing even greater import compression.