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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2007

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2007
This thirteenth edition of the annual Agricultural Outlook - and the third prepared jointly with the FAO - provides an assessment of agricultural market prospects based on projections that extend to 2016 for production, consumption, trade, stocks and prices of mainly temperate zone agricultural commodities. These projections are based on specific assumptions regarding global macroeconomic conditions, population growth, national agricultural and trade policies, production technologies, and weather conditions.  It shows how these markets are influenced by economic developments and government policies and highlights some of the risks and uncertainties that may influence market outcomes. In addition to OECD countries, the market projections in the report cover a large number of other countries and regions including the agricultural giants of India, China, Brazil and Russia as well as Argentina, South Africa and several least developed countries.

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Cereals

International markets for wheat and coarse grains were characterised by substantial production shortfalls in 2006/07 following weather related reductions in major production areas. Australia, suffering a severe drought, has harvested 61% less wheat and 51% less coarse grains than in the previous year, causing a sharp drop in both exports and ending stocks. Production of wheat and coarse grains fell substantially in the European Union (EU) and the United States, too. Both weather-related yield reductions and a smaller cereal area harvested contributed to this. In total, Australia, the EU and the US produced some 57 Mt less wheat and coarse grains than in the previous year. While wheat production in India was in line with historical trends, the country stopped selling its large wheat stocks and had to import 6.5 Mt of wheat in 2006, up from very little in 2005. Good harvests in other countries, notably in China and some African countries, only partially offset these shortfalls.

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