OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2007

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2007
This thirteenth edition of the annual Agricultural Outlook - and the third prepared jointly with the FAO - provides an assessment of agricultural market prospects based on projections that extend to 2016 for production, consumption, trade, stocks and prices of mainly temperate zone agricultural commodities. These projections are based on specific assumptions regarding global macroeconomic conditions, population growth, national agricultural and trade policies, production technologies, and weather conditions.  It shows how these markets are influenced by economic developments and government policies and highlights some of the risks and uncertainties that may influence market outcomes. In addition to OECD countries, the market projections in the report cover a large number of other countries and regions including the agricultural giants of India, China, Brazil and Russia as well as Argentina, South Africa and several least developed countries.

English Also available in: Spanish, French

Oilseeds and Oilseed Products

In the calendar year 2006, oilseeds markets have been characterized by considerable diversity but somewhat less dramatic price developments than other crop markets. Rapeseed prices and rapeseed oil prices have increased by almost 20% over the course of 2006. Other oilseeds and product prices have been less bullish. However, an impressive upward tendency for prices of all oilseeds and products was observed in the last quarter of the year. These price developments have been driven by the competition between oilseeds and cereals for acreage, particularly in the US. World prices of wheat and coarse grains have been driven up by reduced harvests in some countries and by booming ethanol production, in a context of declining stock levels. The oilseeds acreage – especially that for soyabeans – has been put under pressure, in turn, pushing prices up. That competition and the increasing demand for rapeseed oil for bio-diesel production have boosted demand and prices for the other vegetable oils as well. The strong increase in meal prices at the end of 2006 is also a consequence of strong cereal prices, as oilseed meal is increasingly demanded as a feed substitute for the relatively more expensive cereals. Stocks for soyabeans in the US have reached record level in 2006, underpinning the level of oilseeds stocks worldwide. Despite strong oilseeds demand and prices, high stocks level in 2006 can be explained by good harvests and the expectation of even higher oilseeds prices in 2007. Prices are expected to strengthen further in 2007 as oilseeds demand is expected to remain strong and high maize prices continue to pressure US soybean acreage.

English Also available in: French

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