Like other industrialised countries, France is facing the deepest economic recession of the post-war period. After the severe contraction recorded in the last quarter of 2008, activity seems to have slowed further in early 2009. Yet with financial-market turbulence a persistent threat and the risk of an even larger shrinkage in world trade, there is great uncertainty as to the timing and strength of the recovery. In any case, the decline in economic activity is likely to be very significant, even if less pronounced than elsewhere, with some likelihood of a gradual easing of the recession over the course of the year, supported by budgetary stimulus and interest-rate reductions in France and abroad. The resulting job losses are set to drive the unemployment rate steadily higher throughout the year; at the same time, the inflation rate will probably approach zero.