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2013 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2013 Issue 1

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2013 Issue 1

The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD’s twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.

Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment, chapters summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country, a special chapter on growth prospects and fiscal requirements over the long term, and a statistical annex.

 

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China

After showing signs of recovery in late 2012, growth unexpectedly weakened in the first quarter of 2013. The slowdown came mainly from capital formation, in particular from a swing in stock-building. Inflation has been declining but stabilised in early 2013. Given the strong growth in credit and more supportive fiscal policy, some turnaround in output growth can be expected by mid-2013. Nonetheless, growth for 2013 as a whole is projected to be subpar for the second consecutive year. In 2014, faster world trade may also boost the economy, bringing growth to 8.4%. With more limited export market share gains than in the past, the current account surplus may shrink anew.

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