2002 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2002 Issue 2

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2002 Issue 2

Twice a year, the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends that will mark the next two years. The present issue covers the outlook to the end of 2004 and examines the economic policies required to foster high and sustainable growth in member countries. Developments in selected major non-OECD economies are also evaluated in detail.

In addition to the themes featured regularly, this issue contains four analytical chapters addressing the following important questions: the deterioration in budgetary positions in most OECD countries, raising the labour force participation of older workers,  the benefits that OECD countries could achieve from undertaking reforms to promote product market competition, and inflation rates in some of the larger, slow-growing economies have not declined sufficiently to offset higher rates elsewhere in the euro area.

English Also available in: French, German


Output grew slightly in the first half of 2002, as strengthening net exports more than offset a continuing fall in domestic demand. The recession in equipment investment deepened and private consumption continued to contract. The stronger external contribution to growth was due to a rise in exports but, more importantly, a marked fall in imports reflecting the weakness in domestic demand. While destocking might have reached its trough, growth remains very weak and unemployment is increasing. Growth should pick up in 2003, driven by strengthening exports. As activity broadens in 2004, GDP is projected to grow above potential, at some 2½ per cent.

The general government deficit is projected to total 3.7 per cent of GDP in 2002 and remain above 3 per cent in 2003. Further expenditure reforms are required to reduce the cyclically-adjusted deficit in a sustainable way, and measures need to be taken to raise the growth path of the economy, notably with respect to improving the functioning of labour markets and streamlining government transfers.

English Also available in: French

This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error