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Estonian living standards have doubled since 2000 and income convergence was steady prior to the pandemic, although per capita GDP and productivity remain below the OECD averages. The economy experienced a severe downturn due to disruptions in trade, weaker export demand, high inflation and tight monetary conditions. With improvements in external demand, growth should start to recover this year. Fiscal policy needs to balance stabilisation of the economy with narrowing the budget deficit. Although a part of the deficit reflects cyclical conditions, expenditures have increased in recent years. Alongside the planned spending reviews, Estonia should review the tax system to explore avenues for increasing revenues in the medium term. Further convergence in living standards requires strengthening productivity growth by boosting digitalisation, innovation, and skills across all firms. Due to continued reliance on domestic oil shale and increasing emissions in several sectors, decarbonisation needs to accelerate. Health and life expectancy have improved significantly, but years spent in good health are still among the lowest in the OECD. While the health system is well designed, a special chapter of this report looks at areas for improvement in order to enhance health outcomes.

SPECIAL FEATURE: TOWARDS BETTER AND MORE SUSTAINABLE HEALTHCARE FOR ALL

After a strong recovery from the pandemic, the New Zealand economy has slowed, with higher interest rates weighing on housing construction, and inflation undermining purchasing power and consumption. Monetary policy has tightened significantly since late 2021 and proved efficient at reining in inflation. Better control of government spending is needed to keep fiscal consolidation on track in the short run and restore fiscal space for ageing-related expenditures and the green transition in the long run. New Zealand also faces an investment gap in addressing the needs of a rapidly growing population.

Improving competition policies and streamlining the regulatory environment would help revive productivity growth and lift living standards in the long run. As highlighted by the recent OECD PISA study, achievement in school education has declined markedly. Inequality remains high and attendance has dropped. There is an urgent need to improve the curriculum, reform teacher education and strengthen support to teachers and schools to deliver better education outcomes. Adapting to climate change will require maintaining high insurance coverage for climate-related losses as well as changes to land-use planning and a comprehensive long-run energy strategy. The green transition needs a more rigorous cost-benefit assessment of emission reduction options.

Special features: Competition, School Education, Climate Change

There are signs that the global outlook has begun to brighten. Activity remains more resilient than expected, although with considerable divergence across economies, inflation is falling steadily and unemployment remains low. Global growth is projected to remain unchanged in 2024 and strengthen modestly in 2025, with inflation returning to target in most countries by the end of 2025. Risks around the outlook are becoming better balanced, but substantial uncertainty remains. High geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could disrupt energy and financial markets, causing inflation to spike and growth to falter. Elevated debt service burdens could rise further as low-yielding debt is rolled over, exposing financial vulnerabilities. Inflation might prove more persistent than anticipated but could also fade faster if strong labour force growth continues. The key policy priorities are to ensure a durable reduction in inflation, establish a fiscal path that will address rising pressures, and undertake reforms to raise sustainable and inclusive growth in the medium term.

This issue includes an assessment of the global economic situation, and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD members as well as for selected partner economies.

Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has led to higher energy prices and disruptions in trade and supply chains, weighing on economic growth. Economic convergence had already slowed down before the pandemic, calling for accelerating structural reforms. Rising spending pressures related to defence, internal security, health and old age poverty need to be addressed by raising spending efficiency and tax revenue, while the tax burden should be shifted from labour towards other income, property, and environmental taxes. Continuing to improve the capacity of the public sector, fostering investment and innovation and addressing skilled labour shortages are key for raising potential growth. Low credit supply is a main factor for weak investment and should be tackled by fostering competition and deepening capital markets. High informality, which hinders access to finance and distorts the level playing field, should be addressed by reducing labour taxes for low-wage earners, improving tax enforcement and continuing to fight corruption. Strengthening the power of the Competition Council to enforce competitive neutrality of state-owned enterprises and challenge regulation that restricts competition would help to foster business dynamism and innovation. Addressing skilled labour shortages will require facilitating skilled migration and investing more in human capital.

SPECIAL FEATURE: RAISING INVESTMENT TO SUPPORT GROWTH

The Slovak economy has been relatively resilient to the energy crisis, but growth has slowed amid high inflation, weakening foreign demand and tightening financial conditions. The pandemic and the energy crisis have deteriorated public finances; steady fiscal consolidation is now needed to rebuild fiscal buffers and improve long-term fiscal sustainability in the face of rapid population ageing. Sustaining economic convergence and facilitating inclusive structural change requires improving skill provision at all stages of the learning cycle, fostering the domestic innovation capacity and improving the business environment. A more consistent pricing of carbon across the economy and stronger incentives for green investment and innovation would make growth more sustainable. Improving housing affordability requires structural reforms to improve the efficiency of the housing market, property tax reforms, and targeted support to vulnerable households. Incentives for housing renovation must be strengthened to address energy poverty and achieve environmental goals.

SPECIAL FEATURE: ADDRESSING HOUSING MARKET CHALLENGES

Switzerland has proved resilient through the pandemic, geopolitical turmoil and reverberations in energy markets. Unemployment and inflation are low, and living standards are among the highest in the OECD. This is reinforced by a dynamic market-based economy, highly skilled workforce and prudent macroeconomic policies. Yet, slowing growth amid continued price pressures pose challenges. A tight monetary policy is necessary to ensure that inflation remains durably within the central bank’s target range. Although a broadly neutral fiscal stance is warranted in the short term, longer-term fiscal pressures call for structural reform to counter rising cost of ageing and to support the green transition. Stronger incentives and speedier approval processes are needed to effectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The labour market is strong and unemployment low. Yet, skills shortages are rising. Longer working lives, improved incentives for mothers to participate more intensively in the labour market and migration of skilled foreign workers can mitigate the shortages. Improving framework conditions and maintaining access to foreign markets, while refraining from trade restrictions and distortive industrial policies, will strengthen economic resilience. Strong domestic competition and a better business environment will further reinforce Switzerland’s position as a global hub for business, investment and research.

SPECIAL FEATURE: STRENGTHENING ECONOMIC RESILIENCE WITHIN GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS

Romania’s economy withstood significant adverse shocks in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing energy crisis. Tackling high inflation is the immediate task for macroeconomic policy. Fiscal consolidation would complement restrictive monetary policy in keeping demand at sustainable levels. Greater tax revenues are needed to stabilise the public debt burden while funding priority spending – including on critical infrastructure, pensions, health care and the education system. Productivity growth is a powerful engine for lifting living standards but sustaining it will require a sound investment climate backed by strong competition, predictable policymaking, financial inclusion and effective controls against corruption. Romania’s Recovery and Resilience Plan is helping drive reform. More policy focus is needed on addressing disparate socio-economic outcomes within Romania and to lift employment among groups underrepresented in formal work, including women. Faster progress is also required to decarbonise the economy by 2050. Romania needs more renewable power and big energy savings to reduce fossil fuel use. Energy-efficient buildings, better transport systems and consistent price signals for abatement are also needed. Efficient and fair policies can limit costs from the net-zero transition, shield affected communities from hardship, and prepare people for changing climates.

SPECIAL FEATURE : DECARBONISING ROMANIA'S ECONOMY

After a strong demand-based recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic, economic activity declined amid high inflation. Growth has restarted in mid-2023 and inflation is receding, but fiscal and monetary policies need to work hand-in-hand to fight remaining inflationary pressures and recreate fiscal space to finance future spending needs.

Productivity growth has slowed since the mid-2000s and structural reforms that facilitate new firm entry and exit and a wider take-up of digital tools are needed. Recent reforms to the anti-corruption and public integrity framework will sustain investor confidence if they are fully implemented.

Social transfers keep income inequalities and poverty low but should be better targeted to those most in need. Women face large employment and pay gaps compared to men and intergenerational mobility is limited. Further expanding access to childcare facilities for young children and improving the education system would help to address these challenges.

Hungary’s green transition can build on past progress but needs to accelerate. This will require more electricity supply from low-carbon sources, with price signals acting as a catalyst. Restructuring energy support by moving from price caps to more targeted cash transfers to vulnerable households would strengthen incentives for energy efficiency improvements and reduce fiscal costs.

SPECIAL FEATURE: GREEN TRANSITION

After a slow recovery from the pandemic, the Mexican economy has navigated well the global environment of tightening financial conditions and heightened uncertainty. Fiscal policy has a robust track record in attaining fiscal targets and keeping public debt low. Higher tax revenues would allow to maintain fiscal prudence and to address important spending needs in productivity enhancing areas, such as education, infrastructure, the digital and green transitions, and the fight against corruption and crime. Mexico has large potential to attract investment from companies looking to relocate their operations to North America. This is also a significant opportunity to spread the benefits of trade throughout the country and to create more and better value chain linkages. Fully harnessing these opportunities will require addressing long-standing challenges related to transport and digital connectivity, regulations or the rule of law, and shifting to renewables. Improving education outcomes and reducing gender gaps and informality would help to continue the recent fall in income inequality, while also strengthening the country’s growth potential. Improving access to adequate housing and more coordination across, urban, housing and transport infrastructure policies would enhance Mexicans’ living conditions, reduce urban sprawl and improve urban mobility.

SPECIAL FEATURE: IMPROVING HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT POLICIES

Growth has held up better in Egypt than in neighbouring countries until recently but inflation has reached very high levels and financing conditions have tightened along with foreign currency shortages. In this context, Egypt is stepping up economic reform efforts. The exchange rate needs to become more flexible with monetary policy geared to bring inflation down to target. High public debt makes Egypt more vulnerable to external shocks. Committing to a credible consolidation strategy is key to restore public finance health, which would improve investor confidence and thereby reduce debt servicing costs. While expanding cash transfers to the most vulnerable, broad-based energy subsidies should be phased out, which would also reduce emissions. As public investment has expanded substantially, further efforts to rationalise large-scale construction projects should be pursued, while allocating resources to green investment. To revive private sector growth, the regulatory burden and the state footprint ought to be reduced, and ongoing reforms including the divestment plan should be implemented fully and effectively. As the working-age population will expand with a rising education level, younger generations need to be better integrated into the labour market. This requires reducing labour taxation, enhancing public employment support and better aligning skills to labour market needs.

SPECIAL FEATURES: IMPROVING THE BUSINESS CLIMATE TO REVIVE PRIVATE SECTOR GROWTH; PROMOTING BETTER-QUALITY JOB CREATION FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH

The global economy proved resilient in 2023, but there are signs that growth is easing as restrictive monetary policy takes effect. Global growth is projected to remain moderate in 2024 and 2025, with inflation declining towards target in most countries by 2025. Key near term risks include high geopolitical tensions, particularly if the conflict in the Middle East were to disrupt energy markets, and uncertainty about the strength of the ongoing impact from higher interest rates.

The Interim Report says that monetary policy should remain prudent to ensure that inflation returns durably to target, though policy interest rates can be lowered as inflation declines. Governments need to focus on ensuring fiscal sustainability, including through measures to reduce future spending pressures. Structural policy reforms are needed to strengthen the foundations for sustainable growth, with key priorities being to accelerate decarbonisation, revive global trade and improve educational outcomes.

The Interim Report is an update on the assessment in the OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2023 Issue 2 (Number 114).

Italy has weathered recent crises well. A strong fiscal policy response, enhanced competitiveness and improved banking sector health have supported growth in recent years. But public debt is high and spending pressures are rising from population ageing, higher interest rates, and the green and digital transitions. A steady fiscal consolidation is needed over several years to put debt on a more prudent path. Growth in spending needs to be contained, but public investment in the National Recovery and Resilience Plan should be protected to minimise adverse effects on growth. The ongoing civil justice and public administration reforms will support growth by raising business investment and facilitating the implementation of public investment plans. Regulatory barriers to competition in services should be reduced. Raising employment, including by expanding access to early childhood education to reduce barriers to female labour market participation, would make growth more inclusive. Additional policy efforts are needed to accelerate the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change. Renewable power generation has advanced, but complex permitting procedures that hold back the installation of renewable energy capacity need to be simplified.

SPECIAL FEATURE: Achieving the energy and climate transition

Japan has navigated the dual shock of the pandemic and the energy crisis well. However, significant headwinds from weak global growth, geopolitical tensions and high inflation highlight the importance of enhancing the Japanese economy’s resilience to shocks. In a context of inflation, which has risen above target, and pressures from divergent monetary policy from peers, adjustments to monetary policy settings have commenced. Given high public debt, fiscal consolidation to rebuild fiscal buffers, underpinned by a credible medium-term fiscal framework to put the debt-to-GDP ratio on a clear downward path, is key. Longer-term sustainability also requires reducing greenhouse gas emissions in line with government targets, calling for green investment, innovation and carbon pricing. Reforms to improve the innovation framework and incentives for start-ups are key to boost productivity and address ageing pressures. Removing obstacles to the employment of women and older persons and making greater use of foreign workers are also essential to counter demographic headwinds. Strengthening the financial position of young people and policies to support families and children, such as improved parental leave, would help to reverse the downward trend in the fertility rate.

SPECIAL FEATURE: ADDRESSING DEMOGRAPHIC HEADWINDS

Following a robust recovery, growth has slowed and the economy has been running at two speeds. Headline inflation has fallen, but underlying price pressures remain high. While the public finances are robust with a budget surplus and low public debt, population ageing poses long-term risks to the social model, calling for efficiency gains at the local level. Ambitious greenhouse gas emission reduction targets and policies are in place, but further reforms are needed to advance the green transition. A reduction in barriers to working longer hours, extending working lives for young and older people, and international recruitment can help to address persistent labour shortages. The demographic, digital and green transitions will transform jobs and skills requirements, calling for an agile education and training system throughout working life.

SPECIAL FEATURE: ADDRESSING LABOUR AND SKILLS SHORTAGES

Thailand has achieved remarkable economic progress over the past decades. A strong and timely policy response helped to cushion the economic and social impact of the pandemic, and of high energy and food prices. While bold fiscal support prevented the economy from falling into a recession, public debt has risen and fiscal consolidation should now continue at a gradual pace. Rising social demands, population ageing and the green transition will likely add to public spending pressures and call for raising additional tax revenues. Boosting productivity and mastering the transition towards more sustainable and inclusive growth will require stepping up delayed structural reforms. Competition remains limited across several sectors, likely related to market entry barriers and high regulatory burdens. More than half of workers lack formal employment and social security does not cover most of them. Social pensions provide a minimum income floor for elderly people, and raising them could allow significant inroads in the fight against poverty and inequality. Meeting climate pledges will require bold and well-organised reforms. Renewable power generation has advanced, but the overall share of renewable energy sources remains lower than in peer countries.

SPECIAL FEATURES: BOOSTING PRODUCTIVITY; INCLUSIVE RECOVERY; GREEN GROWTH

The global economy continues to confront the challenges of persistent inflation and subdued growth prospects. GDP growth has been stronger than expected so far in 2023, but is now moderating as the impact of tighter financial conditions, weak trade growth and lower business and consumer confidence is increasingly felt. The slowdown is projected to be mild, with continued disinflation, but a growing divergence across economies is expected to persist in the near term. The Outlook underlines a range of risks, including the potential for disruptions to commodity markets and trade from heightened geopolitical tensions, uncertainty about the persistence of inflation, and the extent to which excess household savings will be run down. Key policy priorities are to ensure that inflation returns durably to target, address mounting fiscal pressures, revive global trade and improve the prospects for sustainable and inclusive growth in the medium term.

This issue includes an assessment of the global economic situation, and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD members as well as for selected partner economies.