1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.

English Chinese, Spanish, French

From Chapter: Commodity snapshots
.

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017

‌3.A1.1World cereal projections
3.A1.1World cereal projections
  Marketing year
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2017‌
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
WHEAT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
742.1
 
744.2
 
755.5
 
763.3
 
771.4
 
780.0
 
788.1
 
796.3
 
804.4
 
812.4
 
820.8
 
Area
Mha
222.7
 
222.8
 
223.5
 
224.0
 
224.4
 
224.9
 
225.3
 
225.6
 
226.0
 
226.4
 
226.7
 
Yield
t/ha
3.33
 
3.34
 
3.38
 
3.41
 
3.44
 
3.47
 
3.50
 
3.53
 
3.56
 
3.59
 
3.62
 
Consumption
Mt
722.4
 
754.2
 
753.2
 
760.6
 
767.9
 
775.9
 
783.2
 
791.1
 
798.9
 
806.9
 
815.3
 
Feed use
Mt
138.5
 
148.5
 
146.4
 
148.0
 
149.8
 
152.0
 
153.9
 
155.9
 
157.8
 
159.9
 
162.3
 
Food use
Mt
491.5
 
507.1
 
512.8
 
517.7
 
522.4
 
527.3
 
532.3
 
537.1
 
542.1
 
547.0
 
551.9
 
Biofuel use
Mt
13.1
 
13.2
 
13.6
 
13.7
 
13.6
 
13.3
 
13.6
 
13.4
 
13.4
 
13.5
 
13.3
 
Other use
Mt
79.2
 
85.5
 
80.4
 
81.3
 
82.2
 
83.2
 
83.5
 
84.7
 
85.6
 
86.5
 
87.8
 
Exports
Mt
165.8
 
168.8
 
173.9
 
176.5
 
178.5
 
180.4
 
182.7
 
184.8
 
186.9
 
189.1
 
191.1
 
Closing stocks
Mt
226.3
 
226.1
 
226.0
 
226.3
 
227.3
 
229.0
 
231.6
 
234.4
 
237.4
 
240.4
 
243.5
 
Price 1
USD/t
207.3
 
200.5
 
202.5
 
208.2
 
215.9
 
225.3
 
232.7
 
238.5
 
243.6
 
246.2
 
248.9
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
397.5
 
396.7
 
403.7
 
407.0
 
410.8
 
414.6
 
418.0
 
421.2
 
424.4
 
427.6
 
430.9
 
Consumption
Mt
275.2
 
279.9
 
277.9
 
279.5
 
281.0
 
282.9
 
284.4
 
286.1
 
287.7
 
289.4
 
291.1
 
Net trade
Mt
115.4
 
121.4
 
126.8
 
129.0
 
130.6
 
132.0
 
133.6
 
135.0
 
136.5
 
138.1
 
139.5
 
Closing stocks
Mt
78.4
 
81.1
 
80.1
 
78.7
 
77.8
 
77.5
 
77.5
 
77.5
 
77.7
 
77.9
 
78.3
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
344.6
 
347.4
 
351.8
 
356.3
 
360.6
 
365.4
 
370.2
 
375.1
 
380.1
 
384.8
 
389.9
 
Consumption
Mt
447.2
 
474.3
 
475.3
 
481.1
 
486.9
 
492.9
 
498.8
 
504.9
 
511.3
 
517.6
 
524.2
 
Net trade
Mt
-112.9
 
-119.0
 
-124.3
 
-126.6
 
-128.2
 
-129.5
 
-131.2
 
-132.6
 
-134.1
 
-135.6
 
-137.0
 
Closing stocks
Mt
147.9
 
145.0
 
145.8
 
147.6
 
149.5
 
151.5
 
154.1
 
156.8
 
159.7
 
162.6
 
165.3
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
298.0
 
294.0
 
298.2
 
300.8
 
303.4
 
306.1
 
308.4
 
310.7
 
312.8
 
315.0
 
317.1
 
Consumption
Mt
224.5
 
230.0
 
227.4
 
228.6
 
229.7
 
231.1
 
232.1
 
233.3
 
234.4
 
235.6
 
236.7
 
Net trade
Mt
68.5
 
69.2
 
71.8
 
73.7
 
74.6
 
75.4
 
76.5
 
77.4
 
78.4
 
79.4
 
80.1
 
Closing stocks
Mt
58.7
 
58.6
 
57.5
 
56.0
 
55.2
 
54.8
 
54.6
 
54.6
 
54.6
 
54.5
 
54.7
 
MAIZE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
1 024.7
 
1 042.4
 
1 050.8
 
1 066.2
 
1 078.9
 
1 096.0
 
1 109.7
 
1 123.0
 
1 136.0
 
1 149.4
 
1 163.7
 
Area
Mha
177.9
 
178.0
 
178.0
 
178.7
 
179.0
 
179.9
 
180.4
 
180.8
 
181.0
 
181.4
 
181.8
 
Yield
t/ha
5.76
 
5.85
 
5.90
 
5.96
 
6.03
 
6.09
 
6.15
 
6.21
 
6.28
 
6.34
 
6.40
 
Consumption
Mt
1 015.1
 
1 041.3
 
1 058.3
 
1 072.2
 
1 083.2
 
1 096.0
 
1 106.6
 
1 119.6
 
1 132.1
 
1 147.0
 
1 161.2
 
Feed use
Mt
574.1
 
600.9
 
609.3
 
621.7
 
629.9
 
642.1
 
650.8
 
662.2
 
672.8
 
683.8
 
695.4
 
Food use
Mt
131.5
 
135.7
 
137.9
 
140.0
 
142.1
 
144.4
 
146.8
 
149.2
 
151.5
 
153.9
 
156.3
 
Biofuel use
Mt
167.5
 
176.6
 
181.0
 
181.4
 
183.4
 
182.8
 
182.7
 
182.3
 
181.9
 
181.5
 
180.8
 
Other use
Mt
99.0
 
84.0
 
85.4
 
83.6
 
81.5
 
79.8
 
78.7
 
77.8
 
77.3
 
78.6
 
78.9
 
Exports
Mt
135.3
 
137.9
 
138.4
 
139.3
 
140.6
 
143.0
 
145.6
 
148.1
 
150.2
 
152.4
 
154.5
 
Closing stocks
Mt
228.8
 
222.1
 
213.3
 
206.1
 
200.6
 
199.4
 
201.3
 
203.5
 
206.2
 
207.5
 
208.8
 
Price 3
USD/t
164.4
 
156.5
 
161.1
 
164.9
 
173.5
 
179.4
 
183.8
 
185.5
 
190.2
 
193.6
 
196.7
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
504.7
 
513.1
 
515.0
 
521.7
 
526.6
 
533.4
 
538.4
 
543.6
 
548.4
 
553.3
 
558.6
 
Consumption
Mt
447.5
 
465.6
 
472.4
 
478.4
 
482.3
 
486.7
 
488.8
 
493.1
 
496.8
 
500.8
 
505.1
 
Net trade
Mt
46.9
 
47.9
 
46.4
 
46.9
 
47.1
 
47.4
 
48.2
 
49.8
 
51.2
 
52.2
 
53.2
 
Closing stocks
Mt
80.3
 
86.3
 
82.5
 
78.8
 
76.0
 
75.3
 
76.6
 
77.3
 
77.8
 
78.1
 
78.3
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
520.0
 
529.4
 
535.8
 
544.5
 
552.3
 
562.7
 
571.3
 
579.5
 
587.6
 
596.1
 
605.1
 
Consumption
Mt
567.6
 
575.7
 
586.0
 
593.8
 
600.9
 
609.3
 
617.8
 
626.6
 
635.4
 
646.2
 
656.0
 
Net trade
Mt
-45.4
 
-46.7
 
-45.2
 
-45.7
 
-45.9
 
-46.2
 
-47.0
 
-48.6
 
-50.0
 
-51.0
 
-52.0
 
Closing stocks
Mt
148.5
 
135.8
 
130.8
 
127.3
 
124.6
 
124.1
 
124.7
 
126.2
 
128.4
 
129.4
 
130.5
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
474.8
 
478.5
 
479.6
 
485.7
 
489.9
 
496.2
 
500.7
 
505.3
 
509.6
 
513.9
 
518.7
 
Consumption
Mt
466.3
 
485.8
 
492.6
 
498.5
 
502.3
 
506.8
 
509.0
 
513.2
 
516.9
 
521.0
 
525.3
 
Net trade
Mt
-1.9
 
-5.8
 
-7.8
 
-8.5
 
-9.6
 
-9.8
 
-9.6
 
-8.4
 
-7.7
 
-7.2
 
-6.8
 
Closing stocks
Mt
78.3
 
84.6
 
79.4
 
75.1
 
72.3
 
71.6
 
72.9
 
73.4
 
73.8
 
74.0
 
74.2
 
OTHER COARSE GRAINS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
301.4
 
302.1
 
305.4
 
308.5
 
311.8
 
315.2
 
318.6
 
321.9
 
325.1
 
328.5
 
331.8
 
Area
Mha
156.2
 
153.9
 
154.0
 
154.2
 
154.3
 
154.4
 
154.6
 
154.8
 
154.9
 
155.1
 
155.3
 
Yield
t/ha
1.93
 
1.96
 
1.98
 
2.00
 
2.02
 
2.04
 
2.06
 
2.08
 
2.10
 
2.12
 
2.14
 
Consumption
Mt
292.5
 
298.1
 
300.3
 
304.1
 
307.2
 
310.4
 
313.2
 
316.5
 
319.7
 
323.1
 
326.5
 
Feed use
Mt
165.1
 
166.5
 
166.7
 
169.1
 
172.2
 
174.3
 
175.7
 
177.6
 
179.2
 
180.7
 
182.0
 
Food use
Mt
75.5
 
77.9
 
79.6
 
81.0
 
82.4
 
83.8
 
85.3
 
86.8
 
88.4
 
89.9
 
91.5
 
Biofuel use
Mt
7.8
 
9.8
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.2
 
10.2
 
10.1
 
9.9
 
9.9
 
9.9
 
9.9
 
Other use
Mt
44.2
 
43.9
 
43.9
 
43.9
 
42.4
 
42.1
 
42.2
 
42.1
 
42.1
 
42.6
 
43.0
 
Exports
Mt
49.2
 
43.4
 
43.9
 
44.9
 
45.9
 
46.7
 
47.7
 
48.7
 
49.5
 
50.3
 
51.2
 
Closing stocks
Mt
58.1
 
61.4
 
61.5
 
60.8
 
60.4
 
60.1
 
60.5
 
60.9
 
61.3
 
61.5
 
61.8
 
Price 4
USD/t
179.4
 
154.6
 
155.6
 
162.3
 
170.2
 
181.1
 
186.8
 
187.8
 
191.9
 
195.3
 
198.3
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
188.9
 
185.4
 
186.8
 
188.1
 
189.3
 
190.4
 
191.5
 
192.5
 
193.5
 
194.5
 
195.5
 
Consumption
Mt
150.1
 
156.1
 
156.1
 
156.9
 
157.2
 
157.5
 
157.5
 
157.7
 
157.9
 
158.4
 
158.6
 
Net trade
Mt
36.2
 
30.4
 
30.7
 
31.6
 
32.4
 
33.1
 
34.0
 
34.8
 
35.5
 
36.1
 
36.9
 
Closing stocks
Mt
37.1
 
41.2
 
41.2
 
40.8
 
40.4
 
40.3
 
40.4
 
40.4
 
40.5
 
40.5
 
40.4
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
112.5
 
116.7
 
118.6
 
120.4
 
122.6
 
124.8
 
127.1
 
129.4
 
131.6
 
134.0
 
136.4
 
Consumption
Mt
142.4
 
142.0
 
144.2
 
147.2
 
150.0
 
152.8
 
155.7
 
158.7
 
161.7
 
164.8
 
167.8
 
Net trade
Mt
-30.1
 
-25.3
 
-25.6
 
-26.5
 
-27.4
 
-28.0
 
-28.9
 
-29.8
 
-30.4
 
-31.1
 
-31.9
 
Closing stocks
Mt
21.0
 
20.2
 
20.2
 
20.0
 
19.9
 
19.9
 
20.1
 
20.5
 
20.8
 
21.1
 
21.5
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
155.0
 
150.2
 
151.4
 
152.4
 
153.3
 
154.3
 
155.3
 
156.2
 
157.1
 
158.0
 
159.0
 
Consumption
Mt
129.3
 
133.2
 
132.7
 
133.3
 
133.4
 
133.6
 
133.5
 
133.9
 
134.3
 
134.9
 
135.4
 
Net trade
Mt
24.9
 
18.8
 
19.0
 
19.6
 
20.3
 
20.7
 
21.4
 
22.1
 
22.6
 
23.0
 
23.6
 
Closing stocks
Mt
30.9
 
31.7
 
31.4
 
30.9
 
30.6
 
30.5
 
30.8
 
31.0
 
31.2
 
31.4
 
31.4
 
RICE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
494.9
 
506.5
 
512.5
 
518.2
 
524.2
 
530.0
 
536.1
 
542.1
 
548.3
 
554.6
 
560.9
 
Area
Mha
162.3
 
163.8
 
163.8
 
163.9
 
164.0
 
164.0
 
164.0
 
164.1
 
164.1
 
164.2
 
164.2
 
Yield
t/ha
3.05
 
3.09
 
3.13
 
3.16
 
3.20
 
3.23
 
3.27
 
3.30
 
3.34
 
3.38
 
3.42
 
Consumption
Mt
494.7
 
507.6
 
513.5
 
518.1
 
524.3
 
530.1
 
535.8
 
541.8
 
547.8
 
553.9
 
560.1
 
Feed use
Mt
20.6
 
21.9
 
22.6
 
23.0
 
23.3
 
23.7
 
23.9
 
24.2
 
24.5
 
24.8
 
25.2
 
Food use
Mt
399.9
 
409.6
 
414.4
 
418.9
 
423.8
 
428.2
 
432.6
 
437.0
 
441.4
 
445.8
 
450.3
 
Exports
Mt
44.0
 
42.7
 
43.7
 
44.7
 
45.6
 
46.6
 
47.4
 
48.3
 
49.3
 
50.2
 
51.2
 
Closing stocks
Mt
171.7
 
169.4
 
167.9
 
167.5
 
166.9
 
166.4
 
166.2
 
166.1
 
166.2
 
166.5
 
166.8
 
Price 5
USD/t
375.1
 
389.0
 
393.5
 
398.4
 
400.3
 
405.0
 
407.6
 
409.5
 
411.1
 
412.9
 
415.5
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
18.1
 
17.3
 
18.2
 
18.2
 
18.3
 
18.4
 
18.4
 
18.5
 
18.5
 
18.6
 
18.6
 
Consumption
Mt
19.1
 
19.3
 
19.3
 
19.3
 
19.3
 
19.3
 
19.3
 
19.3
 
19.3
 
19.3
 
19.3
 
Net trade
Mt
-1.1
 
-1.4
 
-0.9
 
-1.0
 
-1.0
 
-1.0
 
-1.0
 
-1.0
 
-1.0
 
-0.9
 
-0.9
 
Closing stocks
Mt
5.1
 
4.4
 
4.2
 
4.1
 
4.1
 
4.1
 
4.2
 
4.3
 
4.5
 
4.7
 
4.9
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
476.8
 
489.2
 
494.3
 
499.9
 
505.9
 
511.6
 
517.6
 
523.7
 
529.8
 
536.0
 
542.3
 
Consumption
Mt
475.6
 
488.3
 
494.3
 
498.8
 
505.0
 
510.8
 
516.5
 
522.5
 
528.4
 
534.6
 
540.8
 
Net trade
Mt
1.5
 
1.8
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.5
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.3
 
Closing stocks
Mt
166.5
 
165.0
 
163.7
 
163.4
 
162.9
 
162.3
 
162.0
 
161.7
 
161.7
 
161.8
 
161.9
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
21.8
 
20.8
 
21.7
 
21.6
 
21.7
 
21.7
 
21.7
 
21.7
 
21.7
 
21.7
 
21.7
 
Consumption
Mt
22.9
 
23.3
 
23.2
 
23.1
 
23.0
 
23.0
 
22.9
 
22.9
 
22.8
 
22.8
 
22.7
 
Net trade
Mt
-1.4
 
-1.6
 
-1.2
 
-1.3
 
-1.3
 
-1.3
 
-1.3
 
-1.3
 
-1.3
 
-1.3
 
-1.3
 
Closing stocks
Mt
6.6
 
5.8
 
5.4
 
5.2
 
5.1
 
5.1
 
5.2
 
5.3
 
5.4
 
5.6
 
5.8
 
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions.
Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
No.2 hard red winter wheat, ordinary protein, United States FOB Gulf Ports (June/May).
2.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
3.
No.2 yellow corn, United States FOB Gulf Ports (September/August).
4.
Feed barley, Europe, FOB Rouen.
5.
Milled 100%, grade b, nominal price quote, FOB Bangkok (January/December).
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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