1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.4.1 - Wheat projections: Production and trade

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017

‌A.4.1Wheat projections: Production and trade
A.4.1Wheat projections: Production and trade
  Marketing year
‌‌
‌PRODUCTION (kt)‌
Growth (%) 4
IMPORTS (kt)
Growth (%) 4
EXPORTS (kt)
Growth (%) 4
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2026‌
‌2007-16‌
‌2017-26‌
WORLD
742 096
 
820 804
 
1.80
 
1.07
 
163 393
 
188 709
 
4.00
 
1.30
 
165 818
 
191 134
 
3.86
 
1.29
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
397 544
 
430 916
 
1.79
 
0.88
 
28 819
 
28 108
 
1.83
 
0.33
 
144 183
 
167 567
 
4.31
 
1.19
 
NORTH AMERICA
87 623
 
88 950
 
0.78
 
0.75
 
3 628
 
4 300
 
2.07
 
2.84
 
46 135
 
49 994
 
-0.07
 
0.39
 
Canada
29 581
 
31 800
 
3.58
 
0.59
 
99
 
96
 
13.62
 
-0.22
 
22 421
 
22 750
 
3.95
 
0.60
 
United States
58 043
 
57 150
 
-0.47
 
0.84
 
3 529
 
4 204
 
1.90
 
2.92
 
23 714
 
27 244
 
-2.77
 
0.22
 
EUROPE
252 816
 
276 169
 
2.01
 
0.84
 
8 615
 
7 784
 
-0.11
 
-0.76
 
71 163
 
86 658
 
9.05
 
1.72
 
European Union
154 371
 
164 460
 
1.54
 
0.72
 
6 122
 
5 100
 
-1.41
 
-1.11
 
31 310
 
36 636
 
7.07
 
2.34
 
Russia
64 899
 
72 272
 
2.11
 
0.78
 
402
 
877
 
21.27
 
1.09
 
23 873
 
29 344
 
9.11
 
0.72
 
Ukraine
25 558
 
30 225
 
4.33
 
1.38
 
50
 
50
 
33.07
 
-0.01
 
14 716
 
18 517
 
19.25
 
2.02
 
OCEANIA DEVELOPED
28 136
 
30 869
 
5.74
 
0.66
 
500
 
579
 
7.54
 
1.88
 
18 864
 
20 651
 
7.18
 
0.40
 
Australia
27 689
 
30 335
 
5.81
 
0.64
 
19
 
20
 
10.37
 
0.00
 
18 863
 
20 651
 
7.18
 
0.40
 
New Zealand
448
 
534
 
2.15
 
1.42
 
481
 
559
 
7.47
 
1.95
 
0
 
0
 
-16.10
 
0.00
 
OTHER DEVELOPED 1
28 968
 
34 928
 
0.12
 
1.73
 
16 076
 
15 446
 
2.78
 
0.25
 
8 021
 
10 263
 
0.47
 
2.57
 
Japan
916
 
941
 
1.90
 
0.53
 
5 746
 
5 493
 
1.00
 
-0.41
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Kazakhstan
13 882
 
16 461
 
-0.81
 
1.60
 
264
 
95
 
76.92
 
-1.98
 
6 972
 
8 459
 
-0.13
 
2.02
 
South Africa
1 703
 
2 163
 
-1.60
 
1.30
 
1 900
 
2 323
 
4.80
 
3.69
 
187
 
844
 
-4.27
 
16.37
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
344 552
 
389 888
 
1.88
 
1.29
 
134 574
 
160 601
 
4.52
 
1.48
 
21 635
 
23 567
 
1.68
 
2.04
 
AFRICA
23 706
 
28 094
 
3.33
 
1.79
 
46 334
 
57 675
 
3.84
 
2.19
 
1 083
 
856
 
-1.03
 
-1.66
 
NORTH AFRICA
17 951
 
21 246
 
2.71
 
1.73
 
28 533
 
33 369
 
4.00
 
1.46
 
247
 
223
 
-2.18
 
-0.40
 
Algeria
2 300
 
2 978
 
1.99
 
1.49
 
8 172
 
9 267
 
4.81
 
1.59
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.11
 
Egypt
9 093
 
10 576
 
2.41
 
1.51
 
11 733
 
14 316
 
3.60
 
1.74
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.12
 
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
5 755
 
6 848
 
5.44
 
1.95
 
17 802
 
24 307
 
3.62
 
3.28
 
836
 
633
 
-0.42
 
-2.07
 
Ethiopia
4 234
 
5 082
 
7.43
 
2.03
 
1 371
 
2 660
 
-2.34
 
6.67
 
0
 
0
 
-51.98
 
-0.46
 
Ghana
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
2.01
 
563
 
649
 
10.49
 
2.08
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-2.04
 
Mozambique
19
 
20
 
27.52
 
2.19
 
495
 
811
 
5.68
 
3.60
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-0.25
 
Nigeria
71
 
92
 
5.51
 
1.80
 
4 500
 
5 438
 
3.77
 
2.04
 
600
 
497
 
4.39
 
-2.00
 
Tanzania
122
 
129
 
7.92
 
1.96
 
837
 
1 138
 
2.82
 
3.91
 
77
 
28
 
-11.85
 
-3.76
 
Zambia
222
 
305
 
5.96
 
2.91
 
33
 
37
 
-7.66
 
6.66
 
16
 
1
 
525.32
 
-6.47
 
LATIN AMERICA and CARIBBEAN
28 387
 
32 901
 
1.19
 
2.21
 
21 242
 
23 379
 
1.15
 
0.96
 
12 085
 
14 709
 
-0.45
 
3.27
 
Argentina
14 530
 
18 107
 
1.89
 
2.83
 
3
 
3
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
8 208
 
11 626
 
-1.40
 
3.61
 
Brazil
6 024
 
6 396
 
2.56
 
1.42
 
5 897
 
7 118
 
-1.59
 
1.17
 
1 244
 
1 204
 
0.09
 
4.76
 
Chile
1 524
 
2 057
 
3.59
 
2.03
 
762
 
481
 
-1.47
 
-3.01
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
0.22
 
Colombia
14
 
13
 
-10.88
 
1.28
 
1 740
 
1 728
 
3.15
 
0.55
 
50
 
52
 
5.17
 
-0.54
 
Mexico
3 722
 
4 278
 
-0.71
 
1.26
 
4 429
 
4 713
 
4.99
 
0.93
 
1 091
 
1 105
 
3.18
 
-0.01
 
Paraguay
1 059
 
791
 
-1.52
 
1.88
 
1
 
0
 
62.02
 
-1.14
 
717
 
329
 
-1.35
 
2.36
 
Peru
216
 
273
 
1.08
 
2.19
 
1 849
 
1 983
 
2.75
 
0.95
 
5
 
5
 
-7.31
 
-0.39
 
Uruguay
1 052
 
754
 
-0.99
 
1.45
 
38
 
29
 
-0.75
 
-2.04
 
717
 
340
 
8.30
 
2.08
 
ASIA and PACIFIC
292 459
 
328 893
 
1.83
 
1.16
 
66 997
 
79 546
 
6.42
 
1.16
 
8 468
 
8 002
 
3.99
 
0.50
 
Bangladesh
1 344
 
1 642
 
7.60
 
1.72
 
4 365
 
5 524
 
7.75
 
2.04
 
28
 
29
 
123.35
 
-0.77
 
China 2
128 325
 
133 858
 
1.93
 
0.60
 
2 862
 
3 680
 
49.80
 
2.99
 
193
 
220
 
-16.11
 
0.67
 
India
91 557
 
106 831
 
2.35
 
1.30
 
1 185
 
3 115
 
7.34
 
-0.61
 
1 712
 
659
 
158.40
 
0.98
 
Indonesia
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
1.84
 
8 721
 
10 728
 
7.95
 
1.18
 
108
 
98
 
15.33
 
-1.17
 
Iran
11 867
 
15 546
 
0.34
 
1.62
 
3 998
 
1 822
 
17.00
 
-2.32
 
233
 
498
 
7.17
 
0.76
 
Korea
29
 
45
 
12.74
 
2.14
 
4 347
 
5 173
 
2.06
 
1.52
 
50
 
54
 
-2.04
 
0.68
 
Malaysia
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
1.67
 
1 544
 
1 764
 
5.45
 
1.10
 
116
 
136
 
9.06
 
-1.09
 
Pakistan
25 516
 
31 549
 
1.53
 
2.08
 
255
 
30
 
-35.89
 
7.00
 
767
 
139
 
-8.33
 
-16.54
 
Philippines
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
1.64
 
4 977
 
5 677
 
8.11
 
1.17
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-1.16
 
Saudi Arabia
180
 
3
 
-40.72
 
-3.19
 
3 517
 
4 251
 
35.69
 
2.20
 
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
-2.15
 
Thailand
1
 
1
 
1.27
 
1.73
 
3 932
 
3 671
 
16.77
 
1.02
 
14
 
15
 
9.24
 
-1.01
 
Turkey
20 733
 
24 434
 
1.92
 
1.78
 
4 946
 
4 494
 
6.62
 
-2.54
 
4 078
 
5 006
 
9.76
 
2.61
 
Viet Nam
0
 
0
 
0.00
 
1.76
 
3 376
 
5 106
 
13.36
 
1.35
 
96
 
240
 
605.50
 
-1.33
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
13 739
 
16 327
 
4.39
 
1.93
 
20 180
 
28 007
 
4.31
 
3.11
 
164
 
86
 
-8.81
 
-2.38
 
OECD 3
298 042
 
317 080
 
1.66
 
0.81
 
33 080
 
33 317
 
2.01
 
0.11
 
101 533
 
113 450
 
3.10
 
1.07
 
BRICS
292 508
 
321 520
 
2.09
 
0.89
 
12 245
 
17 113
 
4.71
 
1.49
 
27 209
 
32 271
 
8.52
 
1.08
 
..
Not available
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions.
Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Includes Israel and also transition economies: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.
2.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Other Asia Pacific aggregate.
3.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
4.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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