OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017
A.4.1 | Wheat projections: Production and trade | ||||||||||||
A.4.1 | Wheat projections: Production and trade | ||||||||||||
Marketing year | |||||||||||||
| | PRODUCTION (kt) | Growth (%) 4 | IMPORTS (kt) | Growth (%) 4 | EXPORTS (kt) | Growth (%) 4 | ||||||
Average 2014-16est | 2026 | 2007-16 | 2017-26 | Average 2014-16est | 2026 | 2007-16 | 2017-26 | Average 2014-16est | 2026 | 2007-16 | 2017-26 | ||
| WORLD | 742 096 | 820 804 | 1.80 | 1.07 | 163 393 | 188 709 | 4.00 | 1.30 | 165 818 | 191 134 | 3.86 | 1.29 |
| DEVELOPED COUNTRIES | 397 544 | 430 916 | 1.79 | 0.88 | 28 819 | 28 108 | 1.83 | 0.33 | 144 183 | 167 567 | 4.31 | 1.19 |
| NORTH AMERICA | 87 623 | 88 950 | 0.78 | 0.75 | 3 628 | 4 300 | 2.07 | 2.84 | 46 135 | 49 994 | -0.07 | 0.39 |
| Canada | 29 581 | 31 800 | 3.58 | 0.59 | 99 | 96 | 13.62 | -0.22 | 22 421 | 22 750 | 3.95 | 0.60 |
| United States | 58 043 | 57 150 | -0.47 | 0.84 | 3 529 | 4 204 | 1.90 | 2.92 | 23 714 | 27 244 | -2.77 | 0.22 |
| EUROPE | 252 816 | 276 169 | 2.01 | 0.84 | 8 615 | 7 784 | -0.11 | -0.76 | 71 163 | 86 658 | 9.05 | 1.72 |
| European Union | 154 371 | 164 460 | 1.54 | 0.72 | 6 122 | 5 100 | -1.41 | -1.11 | 31 310 | 36 636 | 7.07 | 2.34 |
| Russia | 64 899 | 72 272 | 2.11 | 0.78 | 402 | 877 | 21.27 | 1.09 | 23 873 | 29 344 | 9.11 | 0.72 |
| Ukraine | 25 558 | 30 225 | 4.33 | 1.38 | 50 | 50 | 33.07 | -0.01 | 14 716 | 18 517 | 19.25 | 2.02 |
| OCEANIA DEVELOPED | 28 136 | 30 869 | 5.74 | 0.66 | 500 | 579 | 7.54 | 1.88 | 18 864 | 20 651 | 7.18 | 0.40 |
| Australia | 27 689 | 30 335 | 5.81 | 0.64 | 19 | 20 | 10.37 | 0.00 | 18 863 | 20 651 | 7.18 | 0.40 |
| New Zealand | 448 | 534 | 2.15 | 1.42 | 481 | 559 | 7.47 | 1.95 | 0 | 0 | -16.10 | 0.00 |
| OTHER DEVELOPED 1 | 28 968 | 34 928 | 0.12 | 1.73 | 16 076 | 15 446 | 2.78 | 0.25 | 8 021 | 10 263 | 0.47 | 2.57 |
| Japan | 916 | 941 | 1.90 | 0.53 | 5 746 | 5 493 | 1.00 | -0.41 | 0 | 0 | .. | .. |
| Kazakhstan | 13 882 | 16 461 | -0.81 | 1.60 | 264 | 95 | 76.92 | -1.98 | 6 972 | 8 459 | -0.13 | 2.02 |
| South Africa | 1 703 | 2 163 | -1.60 | 1.30 | 1 900 | 2 323 | 4.80 | 3.69 | 187 | 844 | -4.27 | 16.37 |
| DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | 344 552 | 389 888 | 1.88 | 1.29 | 134 574 | 160 601 | 4.52 | 1.48 | 21 635 | 23 567 | 1.68 | 2.04 |
| AFRICA | 23 706 | 28 094 | 3.33 | 1.79 | 46 334 | 57 675 | 3.84 | 2.19 | 1 083 | 856 | -1.03 | -1.66 |
| NORTH AFRICA | 17 951 | 21 246 | 2.71 | 1.73 | 28 533 | 33 369 | 4.00 | 1.46 | 247 | 223 | -2.18 | -0.40 |
| Algeria | 2 300 | 2 978 | 1.99 | 1.49 | 8 172 | 9 267 | 4.81 | 1.59 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.11 |
| Egypt | 9 093 | 10 576 | 2.41 | 1.51 | 11 733 | 14 316 | 3.60 | 1.74 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.12 |
| SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA | 5 755 | 6 848 | 5.44 | 1.95 | 17 802 | 24 307 | 3.62 | 3.28 | 836 | 633 | -0.42 | -2.07 |
| Ethiopia | 4 234 | 5 082 | 7.43 | 2.03 | 1 371 | 2 660 | -2.34 | 6.67 | 0 | 0 | -51.98 | -0.46 |
| Ghana | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.01 | 563 | 649 | 10.49 | 2.08 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -2.04 |
| Mozambique | 19 | 20 | 27.52 | 2.19 | 495 | 811 | 5.68 | 3.60 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.25 |
| Nigeria | 71 | 92 | 5.51 | 1.80 | 4 500 | 5 438 | 3.77 | 2.04 | 600 | 497 | 4.39 | -2.00 |
| Tanzania | 122 | 129 | 7.92 | 1.96 | 837 | 1 138 | 2.82 | 3.91 | 77 | 28 | -11.85 | -3.76 |
| Zambia | 222 | 305 | 5.96 | 2.91 | 33 | 37 | -7.66 | 6.66 | 16 | 1 | 525.32 | -6.47 |
| LATIN AMERICA and CARIBBEAN | 28 387 | 32 901 | 1.19 | 2.21 | 21 242 | 23 379 | 1.15 | 0.96 | 12 085 | 14 709 | -0.45 | 3.27 |
| Argentina | 14 530 | 18 107 | 1.89 | 2.83 | 3 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8 208 | 11 626 | -1.40 | 3.61 |
| Brazil | 6 024 | 6 396 | 2.56 | 1.42 | 5 897 | 7 118 | -1.59 | 1.17 | 1 244 | 1 204 | 0.09 | 4.76 |
| Chile | 1 524 | 2 057 | 3.59 | 2.03 | 762 | 481 | -1.47 | -3.01 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Colombia | 14 | 13 | -10.88 | 1.28 | 1 740 | 1 728 | 3.15 | 0.55 | 50 | 52 | 5.17 | -0.54 |
| Mexico | 3 722 | 4 278 | -0.71 | 1.26 | 4 429 | 4 713 | 4.99 | 0.93 | 1 091 | 1 105 | 3.18 | -0.01 |
| Paraguay | 1 059 | 791 | -1.52 | 1.88 | 1 | 0 | 62.02 | -1.14 | 717 | 329 | -1.35 | 2.36 |
| Peru | 216 | 273 | 1.08 | 2.19 | 1 849 | 1 983 | 2.75 | 0.95 | 5 | 5 | -7.31 | -0.39 |
| Uruguay | 1 052 | 754 | -0.99 | 1.45 | 38 | 29 | -0.75 | -2.04 | 717 | 340 | 8.30 | 2.08 |
| ASIA and PACIFIC | 292 459 | 328 893 | 1.83 | 1.16 | 66 997 | 79 546 | 6.42 | 1.16 | 8 468 | 8 002 | 3.99 | 0.50 |
| Bangladesh | 1 344 | 1 642 | 7.60 | 1.72 | 4 365 | 5 524 | 7.75 | 2.04 | 28 | 29 | 123.35 | -0.77 |
| China 2 | 128 325 | 133 858 | 1.93 | 0.60 | 2 862 | 3 680 | 49.80 | 2.99 | 193 | 220 | -16.11 | 0.67 |
| India | 91 557 | 106 831 | 2.35 | 1.30 | 1 185 | 3 115 | 7.34 | -0.61 | 1 712 | 659 | 158.40 | 0.98 |
| Indonesia | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.84 | 8 721 | 10 728 | 7.95 | 1.18 | 108 | 98 | 15.33 | -1.17 |
| Iran | 11 867 | 15 546 | 0.34 | 1.62 | 3 998 | 1 822 | 17.00 | -2.32 | 233 | 498 | 7.17 | 0.76 |
| Korea | 29 | 45 | 12.74 | 2.14 | 4 347 | 5 173 | 2.06 | 1.52 | 50 | 54 | -2.04 | 0.68 |
| Malaysia | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.67 | 1 544 | 1 764 | 5.45 | 1.10 | 116 | 136 | 9.06 | -1.09 |
| Pakistan | 25 516 | 31 549 | 1.53 | 2.08 | 255 | 30 | -35.89 | 7.00 | 767 | 139 | -8.33 | -16.54 |
| Philippines | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.64 | 4 977 | 5 677 | 8.11 | 1.17 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -1.16 |
| Saudi Arabia | 180 | 3 | -40.72 | -3.19 | 3 517 | 4 251 | 35.69 | 2.20 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | -2.15 |
| Thailand | 1 | 1 | 1.27 | 1.73 | 3 932 | 3 671 | 16.77 | 1.02 | 14 | 15 | 9.24 | -1.01 |
| Turkey | 20 733 | 24 434 | 1.92 | 1.78 | 4 946 | 4 494 | 6.62 | -2.54 | 4 078 | 5 006 | 9.76 | 2.61 |
| Viet Nam | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.76 | 3 376 | 5 106 | 13.36 | 1.35 | 96 | 240 | 605.50 | -1.33 |
| LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC) | 13 739 | 16 327 | 4.39 | 1.93 | 20 180 | 28 007 | 4.31 | 3.11 | 164 | 86 | -8.81 | -2.38 |
| OECD 3 | 298 042 | 317 080 | 1.66 | 0.81 | 33 080 | 33 317 | 2.01 | 0.11 | 101 533 | 113 450 | 3.10 | 1.07 |
| BRICS | 292 508 | 321 520 | 2.09 | 0.89 | 12 245 | 17 113 | 4.71 | 1.49 | 27 209 | 32 271 | 8.52 | 1.08 |
Not available | |||||||||||||
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions. Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated. | |||||||||||||
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer | |||||||||||||
Includes Israel and also transition economies: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. | |||||||||||||
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Other Asia Pacific aggregate. | |||||||||||||
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries. | |||||||||||||
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary). | |||||||||||||
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en |