1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.29 - Main policy assumptions for dairy markets

English French

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017

‌A.29Main policy assumptions for dairy markets
A.29Main policy assumptions for dairy markets
  Calendar year
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2014-16est
‌2017‌
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
CANADA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Milk target price 1
CADc/litre
79.3
 
84.6
 
84.6
 
85.9
 
87.3
 
88.6
 
90.0
 
91.4
 
92.8
 
94.2
 
95.6
 
Butter support price
CAD/t
7 493.5
 
7 887.9
 
7 912.8
 
8 033.2
 
8 160.6
 
8 286.5
 
8 418.1
 
8 550.9
 
8 679.9
 
8 807.3
 
8 939.0
 
Cheese tariff-quota
kt pw
20.4
 
20.4
 
20.4
 
20.4
 
20.4
 
20.4
 
20.4
 
20.4
 
20.4
 
20.4
 
20.4
 
In-quota tariff
%
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
EUROPEAN UNION 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Voluntary coupled support
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Milk and milk products 3
mln EUR
830
 
843
 
853
 
861
 
846
 
846
 
846
 
846
 
846
 
846
 
846
 
Milk quota
kt pw
50 149
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
Butter reference price 4
EUR/t
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
SMP reference price
EUR/t
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
Butter tariff-quotas
kt pw
88.8
 
89.5
 
89.9
 
90.2
 
90.3
 
90.3
 
90.4
 
90.4
 
90.5
 
90.5
 
90.6
 
Cheese tariff-quotas
kt pw
117.8
 
118.6
 
118.9
 
119.2
 
119.5
 
119.9
 
120.2
 
120.5
 
120.8
 
121.2
 
121.5
 
JAPAN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Direct payments
JPY/kg
12.8
 
10.6
 
10.6
 
10.6
 
10.6
 
10.6
 
10.6
 
10.6
 
10.6
 
10.6
 
10.6
 
Cheese tariff 5
%
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
Tariff-quotas
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter
kt pw
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
In-quota tariff
%
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
732.6
 
732.6
 
732.6
 
732.6
 
732.6
 
732.6
 
732.6
 
732.6
 
732.6
 
732.6
 
732.6
 
SMP
kt pw
115.7
 
115.7
 
115.7
 
115.7
 
115.7
 
115.7
 
115.7
 
115.7
 
115.7
 
115.7
 
115.7
 
In-quota tariff
%
15.8
 
15.8
 
15.8
 
15.8
 
15.8
 
15.8
 
15.8
 
15.8
 
15.8
 
15.8
 
15.8
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
210.4
 
210.4
 
210.4
 
210.4
 
210.4
 
210.4
 
210.4
 
210.4
 
210.4
 
210.4
 
210.4
 
WMP
kt pw
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
KOREA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tariff-quotas
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter
kt pw
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
In-quota tariff
%
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
SMP
kt pw
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
WMP
kt pw
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
In-quota tariff
%
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
MEXICO
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Tariff-quotas
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cheese
kt pw
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
In-quota tariff
%
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
60.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
SMP
kt pw
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
56.7
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
Liconsa social program
mln MXN
1 153.6
 
1 166.4
 
1 166.4
 
1 166.4
 
1 166.4
 
1 166.4
 
1 166.4
 
1 166.4
 
1 166.4
 
1 166.4
 
1 166.4
 
RUSSIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter tariff
%
16.1
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
Cheese tariff
%
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
15.0
 
UNITED STATES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter tariff-quota
kt pw
13.1
 
13.1
 
13.1
 
13.1
 
13.1
 
13.1
 
13.1
 
13.1
 
13.1
 
13.1
 
13.1
 
In-quota tariff
%
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
112.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
Cheese tariff-quota
kt pw
135.0
 
135.0
 
135.0
 
135.0
 
135.0
 
135.0
 
135.0
 
135.0
 
135.0
 
135.0
 
135.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
12.3
 
12.3
 
12.3
 
12.3
 
12.3
 
12.3
 
12.3
 
12.3
 
12.3
 
12.3
 
12.3
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
INDIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter tariff
%
36.2
 
36.2
 
36.2
 
36.2
 
36.2
 
36.2
 
36.2
 
36.2
 
36.2
 
36.2
 
36.2
 
Cheese tariff
%
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
Skim milk powder tariff
%
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
Whole milk powder tariff
%
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
68.3
 
SOUTH AFRICA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter tariff
%
78.0
 
78.0
 
78.0
 
78.0
 
78.0
 
78.0
 
78.0
 
78.0
 
78.0
 
78.0
 
78.0
 
Cheese tariff
%
95.0
 
95.0
 
95.0
 
95.0
 
95.0
 
95.0
 
95.0
 
95.0
 
95.0
 
95.0
 
95.0
 
Skim milk powder tariff
%
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
Whole milk powder tariff
%
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
96.0
 
Note: Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated.
The sources for tariffs and Tariff Rate Quotas are the national questionnaire reply, UNCTAD and WTO.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
For manufacturing milk.
2.
Till 2014, EU farmers can be granted the Single payment scheme (SPS) or the Single area payment scheme (SAPS), which provides flat-rate payments independent from current production decisions and market developments. From 2015, it becomes the Basic payment scheme (BPS) and it shall account for 68% maximum of the national direct payment envelopes. On top of this, from 2015 onwards, new compulsory policy instruments are introduced: the Green Payment (30%) and young farmer scheme (2%).
3.
Implemented in 19 Member States.
4.
Buying-in when market prices go below the reference price for SMP and 90% of the reference price for butter is operable automatically for a maximum quantity of 109 000 tonnes for SMP and 50 000 tonnes for butter (before 2014, this ceiling was set at 30 000 tonnes). Above that ceiling intervention can take place only via tender.
5.
Excludes processed cheese.
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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