OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026
Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017
A.29 | Main policy assumptions for dairy markets | ||||||||||||
A.29 | Main policy assumptions for dairy markets | ||||||||||||
Calendar year | |||||||||||||
| | | Average 2014-16est | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| CANADA | ||||||||||||
| Milk target price 1 | CADc/litre | 79.3 | 84.6 | 84.6 | 85.9 | 87.3 | 88.6 | 90.0 | 91.4 | 92.8 | 94.2 | 95.6 |
| Butter support price | CAD/t | 7 493.5 | 7 887.9 | 7 912.8 | 8 033.2 | 8 160.6 | 8 286.5 | 8 418.1 | 8 550.9 | 8 679.9 | 8 807.3 | 8 939.0 |
| Cheese tariff-quota | kt pw | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.4 |
| In-quota tariff | % | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Out-of-quota tariff | % | 245.6 | 245.6 | 245.6 | 245.6 | 245.6 | 245.6 | 245.6 | 245.6 | 245.6 | 245.6 | 245.6 |
| EUROPEAN UNION 2 | ||||||||||||
| Voluntary coupled support | ||||||||||||
| Milk and milk products 3 | mln EUR | 830 | 843 | 853 | 861 | 846 | 846 | 846 | 846 | 846 | 846 | 846 |
| Milk quota | kt pw | 50 149 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Butter reference price 4 | EUR/t | 2 217.5 | 2 217.5 | 2 217.5 | 2 217.5 | 2 217.5 | 2 217.5 | 2 217.5 | 2 217.5 | 2 217.5 | 2 217.5 | 2 217.5 |
| SMP reference price | EUR/t | 1 698.0 | 1 698.0 | 1 698.0 | 1 698.0 | 1 698.0 | 1 698.0 | 1 698.0 | 1 698.0 | 1 698.0 | 1 698.0 | 1 698.0 |
| Butter tariff-quotas | kt pw | 88.8 | 89.5 | 89.9 | 90.2 | 90.3 | 90.3 | 90.4 | 90.4 | 90.5 | 90.5 | 90.6 |
| Cheese tariff-quotas | kt pw | 117.8 | 118.6 | 118.9 | 119.2 | 119.5 | 119.9 | 120.2 | 120.5 | 120.8 | 121.2 | 121.5 |
| JAPAN | ||||||||||||
| Direct payments | JPY/kg | 12.8 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 |
| Cheese tariff 5 | % | 31.2 | 31.2 | 31.2 | 31.2 | 31.2 | 31.2 | 31.2 | 31.2 | 31.2 | 31.2 | 31.2 |
| Tariff-quotas | ||||||||||||
| Butter | kt pw | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| In-quota tariff | % | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 |
| Out-of-quota tariff | % | 732.6 | 732.6 | 732.6 | 732.6 | 732.6 | 732.6 | 732.6 | 732.6 | 732.6 | 732.6 | 732.6 |
| SMP | kt pw | 115.7 | 115.7 | 115.7 | 115.7 | 115.7 | 115.7 | 115.7 | 115.7 | 115.7 | 115.7 | 115.7 |
| In-quota tariff | % | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 |
| Out-of-quota tariff | % | 210.4 | 210.4 | 210.4 | 210.4 | 210.4 | 210.4 | 210.4 | 210.4 | 210.4 | 210.4 | 210.4 |
| WMP | kt pw | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| In-quota tariff | % | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 |
| Out-of-quota tariff | % | 316.2 | 316.2 | 316.2 | 316.2 | 316.2 | 316.2 | 316.2 | 316.2 | 316.2 | 316.2 | 316.2 |
| KOREA | ||||||||||||
| Tariff-quotas | ||||||||||||
| Butter | kt pw | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| In-quota tariff | % | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 |
| Out-of-quota tariff | % | 89.0 | 89.0 | 89.0 | 89.0 | 89.0 | 89.0 | 89.0 | 89.0 | 89.0 | 89.0 | 89.0 |
| SMP | kt pw | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| In-quota tariff | % | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 |
| Out-of-quota tariff | % | 176.0 | 176.0 | 176.0 | 176.0 | 176.0 | 176.0 | 176.0 | 176.0 | 176.0 | 176.0 | 176.0 |
| WMP | kt pw | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| In-quota tariff | % | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 |
| Out-of-quota tariff | % | 176.0 | 176.0 | 176.0 | 176.0 | 176.0 | 176.0 | 176.0 | 176.0 | 176.0 | 176.0 | 176.0 |
| MEXICO | ||||||||||||
| Butter tariff | % | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Tariff-quotas | ||||||||||||
| Cheese | kt pw | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 |
| In-quota tariff | % | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Out-of-quota tariff | % | 60.0 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 45.0 |
| SMP | kt pw | 90.0 | 90.0 | 90.0 | 90.0 | 90.0 | 90.0 | 90.0 | 90.0 | 90.0 | 90.0 | 90.0 |
| In-quota tariff | % | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Out-of-quota tariff | % | 56.7 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 45.0 |
| Liconsa social program | mln MXN | 1 153.6 | 1 166.4 | 1 166.4 | 1 166.4 | 1 166.4 | 1 166.4 | 1 166.4 | 1 166.4 | 1 166.4 | 1 166.4 | 1 166.4 |
| RUSSIA | ||||||||||||
| Butter tariff | % | 16.1 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 |
| Cheese tariff | % | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 |
| UNITED STATES | ||||||||||||
| Butter tariff-quota | kt pw | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 |
| In-quota tariff | % | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 |
| Out-of-quota tariff | % | 112.0 | 112.0 | 112.0 | 112.0 | 112.0 | 112.0 | 112.0 | 112.0 | 112.0 | 112.0 | 112.0 |
| Cheese tariff-quota | kt pw | 135.0 | 135.0 | 135.0 | 135.0 | 135.0 | 135.0 | 135.0 | 135.0 | 135.0 | 135.0 | 135.0 |
| In-quota tariff | % | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.3 |
| Out-of-quota tariff | % | 87.0 | 87.0 | 87.0 | 87.0 | 87.0 | 87.0 | 87.0 | 87.0 | 87.0 | 87.0 | 87.0 |
| INDIA | ||||||||||||
| Butter tariff | % | 36.2 | 36.2 | 36.2 | 36.2 | 36.2 | 36.2 | 36.2 | 36.2 | 36.2 | 36.2 | 36.2 |
| Cheese tariff | % | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| Skim milk powder tariff | % | 68.3 | 68.3 | 68.3 | 68.3 | 68.3 | 68.3 | 68.3 | 68.3 | 68.3 | 68.3 | 68.3 |
| Whole milk powder tariff | % | 68.3 | 68.3 | 68.3 | 68.3 | 68.3 | 68.3 | 68.3 | 68.3 | 68.3 | 68.3 | 68.3 |
| SOUTH AFRICA | ||||||||||||
| Butter tariff | % | 78.0 | 78.0 | 78.0 | 78.0 | 78.0 | 78.0 | 78.0 | 78.0 | 78.0 | 78.0 | 78.0 |
| Cheese tariff | % | 95.0 | 95.0 | 95.0 | 95.0 | 95.0 | 95.0 | 95.0 | 95.0 | 95.0 | 95.0 | 95.0 |
| Skim milk powder tariff | % | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 |
| Whole milk powder tariff | % | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 | 96.0 |
Note: Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated. The sources for tariffs and Tariff Rate Quotas are the national questionnaire reply, UNCTAD and WTO. | |||||||||||||
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer | |||||||||||||
For manufacturing milk. | |||||||||||||
Till 2014, EU farmers can be granted the Single payment scheme (SPS) or the Single area payment scheme (SAPS), which provides flat-rate payments independent from current production decisions and market developments. From 2015, it becomes the Basic payment scheme (BPS) and it shall account for 68% maximum of the national direct payment envelopes. On top of this, from 2015 onwards, new compulsory policy instruments are introduced: the Green Payment (30%) and young farmer scheme (2%). | |||||||||||||
Implemented in 19 Member States. | |||||||||||||
Buying-in when market prices go below the reference price for SMP and 90% of the reference price for butter is operable automatically for a maximum quantity of 109 000 tonnes for SMP and 50 000 tonnes for butter (before 2014, this ceiling was set at 30 000 tonnes). Above that ceiling intervention can take place only via tender. | |||||||||||||
Excludes processed cheese. | |||||||||||||
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en |