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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2007

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2007
This thirteenth edition of the annual Agricultural Outlook - and the third prepared jointly with the FAO - provides an assessment of agricultural market prospects based on projections that extend to 2016 for production, consumption, trade, stocks and prices of mainly temperate zone agricultural commodities. These projections are based on specific assumptions regarding global macroeconomic conditions, population growth, national agricultural and trade policies, production technologies, and weather conditions.  It shows how these markets are influenced by economic developments and government policies and highlights some of the risks and uncertainties that may influence market outcomes. In addition to OECD countries, the market projections in the report cover a large number of other countries and regions including the agricultural giants of India, China, Brazil and Russia as well as Argentina, South Africa and several least developed countries.

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Dairy

The underlying market drivers affecting the projections for the dairy sector largely remain as reported in previous versions of this report. However, the recent surge in dairy prices, which have been already on the upswing from a trough in 2002-03, has displayed the driving forces for dairy markets with more clarity. Fundamentally, underlying economic growth in many countries, particularly in south and south-east Asia, but also in parts of South America, is increasing the demand for dairy products which are income sensitive. Demand continues to be also encouraged by the growing influence of retail chains and multinational companies which is facilitating consumer access to dairy products and in many countries also by government programs (i.e. school milk). On the other hand, reforms of dairy support policies, particularly in Europe, but also elsewhere in developed countries, have severely limited or reduced exportable surpluses from these countries. These developments are expected to underpin higher dairy product prices.

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