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The global financial crisis and the high associated costs have revived the academic and policy interest in “early warning indicators” of crises. This paper provides empirical evidence on the usefulness of a new set of vulnerability indicators, proposed in a companion paper (Röhn et al., 2015), in predicting severe recessions and crises in OECD countries. To evaluate the usefulness of the indicators the signalling approach is employed, which takes into account policy makers’ preferences between missing crises and false alarms. Our empirical evidence shows that the majority of indicators would have helped to predict severe recessions in the 34 OECD economies and Latvia between 1970 and 2014. Indicators of global risks consistently outperform domestic indicators in terms of their usefulness, highlighting the importance of taking international developments into account when assessing a country’s vulnerabilities. In the domestic areas, indicators that measure asset market imbalances (real house and equity prices, house price-to-income and house price-to-rent ratios), also perform consistently well both in and out-of sample. Domestic credit related variables appear particularly useful in signalling upcoming banking crises and in predicting the global financial crisis out-of-sample. The results are broadly robust to different definitions of costly events, different forecasting horizons and different time and country samples.

The global financial crisis and the high associated costs have revived the academic and policy interest in “early warning indicators” of crises. This paper provides empirical evidence on the usefulness of a new set of vulnerability indicators, proposed in a companion paper (Röhn et al., 2015), in predicting severe recessions and crises in OECD countries. To evaluate the usefulness of the indicators the signalling approach is employed, which takes into account policy makers’ preferences between missing crises and false alarms. Our empirical evidence shows that the majority of indicators would have helped to predict severe recessions in OECD economies between 1970 and 2014. In the domestic areas, indicators that measure asset market imbalances (real house and equity prices, house price-to-income and house price-to-rent ratios), perform consistently well both in and out-ofsample. Domestic credit related variables appear particularly useful in signalling upcoming banking crises and in predicting the global financial crisis out-of-sample. Indicators of global risks consistently outperform domestic indicators in terms of their usefulness, highlighting the importance of taking international developments into account when assessing a country’s vulnerabilities. The good performance of the global indicators is however subject to a caveat: they are particularly suited to pick up recessions that affect a large number of countries simultaneously, such as the global financial crisis in 2008/09. The results are broadly robust to different definitions of costly events, different forecasting horizons and different time and country samples.

JEL classification: E32; E44; E51; F47
Keywords: Resilience, early warning indicators, vulnerabilities, imbalances, severe recessions, crises                                                

The global financial crisis highlighted the importance of strengthening the resilience of our economies to adverse shocks. In this paper, we take stock of studies carried out primarily within, but also outside the OECD, to better understand the role of macroeconomic and structural policies in spurring or mitigating the vulnerabilities that can lead to costly shocks, as well as the role of policies in mitigating the shock impact and speeding the recovery. Then we offer tentative insights on how policies can be geared to address vulnerabilities early on, mitigate the impact of shocks and speed recoveries, as well as highlight possible trade-offs that exist across policy areas.

Conventional studies on the impacts of economic shocks using global input-output tables (sensitivity analyses) assume stable production structures and thus, only reveal the marginal impacts of changes in final demand. However, when economic shocks occur, whether at home or abroad, economic agents are expected to react to reduce the negative impact or amplify the positive effects. The ability of a country to contain economic losses can be defined as the resilience to economic shocks. Using the OECD's annual Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) tables, 1995 to 2011, this paper investigates the relationship between changes in final demand and production structures for 61 economies. Our findings are summarised as follows. Production and final demand structures tend to change to reduce the negative feedbacks from final demand shocks. During economic downturns, structures tend to change so that the dependence on domestic services increases, while the dependence on domestic demand for goods, and the dependence on foreign demand for domestic goods and services, both decrease. Therefore, the domestic service sector seems to play a key role in temporarily containing the negative feedback. Countries that are able to prop up their economy by domestic service sectors instead of domestic goods and foreign sectors are more resilient to negative economic shocks.

The history of the Netherlands reveals major shifts from centralisation of government tasks towards decentralisation and vice versa. In the 17th century, the Republic of United Provinces was the first federal state in modern history. Many transformations later, the Kingdom of the Netherlands became a big centralised welfare state. Since the 1980s, a reverse development has started: the welfare state is being downsized and decentralised. This article describes and discusses this evolution in view of a broad spectrum of economic theories. Four conclusions are drawn. First, the major changes in Dutch fiscal decentralisation arrangements were introduced as policies to overcome a severe economic and political crisis. Second, many other factors – like the increase in communication, mobility, population density, urbanisation and the role of government – also necessitated changes. Third, in order to ensure efficient and financially solid government, the accountability and transparency of central and local government and their interrelationships have been improved substantially. Fourth, current arrangements are not optimal and should be changed. For example, Dutch municipalities should increase further in scale, and the role of Dutch provinces should be reconsidered.

This paper gives an overview of economic assessments of the benefits of the control of 1-Methyl-2-pyrrolidone (NMP), an organic solvent, used in a number of sectors. Health risks associated with the manufacture of NMP include the risk of stillbirth and developmental retardation to pregnant workers, as well as a variety of chronic and acute effects, including respiratory effects.

This paper gives an overview of economic assessments of the benefits of the control of formaldehyde and reflects on developments in its risk management and regulation. Formaldehyde is used in the manufacture of resins, as a disinfectant and fixative and as a preservative in consumer products. Formaldehyde exposure can be harmful to human health.

Concerns over the pace, scope and causes of environmental degradation have led to a renewed interest in the way environmental and economic policies interact. This paper first reviews the main causes for excessive use of environmental resources in a market economy, and how governments may conduct policies to counter environmental degradation. The focus of the paper then shifts towards the implications of economic growth on overall wealth and the possibilities for preserving or expanding the basis of this wealth, particularly in relation to the notion of sustainable development. Finally, it examines policy options for limiting global environmental problems such as climate change, in particular as regards the trade-offs involved in curbing the use of fossil fuels ...

Governments intervene in non-renewable natural resources sectors more than in many others, including through the use of export taxes and quotas. Industrial raw materials sectors are characterized by a number of specificities: production is often geographically concentrated, firms are often large with substantial market power, production processes are highly capital intensive, products are relatively homogeneous and potentially substantial differences in costs of production are prevalent. This paper aims to increase understanding of the economic effects of export restrictions, in particular as they apply to the mining sector. It ascertains the prevalence of export restrictions on metals and minerals, proposes a Cournot-Nash model of export restrictions, suggests some of the economic effects due to the presence of export restrictions, and draws some implications for trade policy among producing and consuming countries of non-renewable natural resources.
Malicious software, or malware for short, has become a critical security threat to all who rely on the Internet for their daily business, whether they are large organisations or home users. While originating in criminal behaviour, the magnitude and impact of the malware threat are also influenced by the decisions and behaviour of legitimate market players such as Internet Service Providers (ISPs), software vendors, e-commerce companies, hardware manufacturers, registrars and, last but not least, end users. This working paper reports on qualitative empirical research into the incentives of market players when dealing with malware. The results indicate a number of market-based incentive mechanisms that contribute to enhanced security but also other instances in which decentralised actions may lead to sub-optimal outcomes - i.e. where significant externalities emerge.
For many years, Brazil lagged behind other middle-income countries in terms of school enrolment rates. But since 1998 policies have aimed at bridging this gap, in particular, with the implementation of FUNDEF, a fund for financing sub-national spending on primary and lower-secondary education. Using state- and municipality-level data during 1991-2002, this paper shows that FUNDEF played a key role in the increase in enrolment rates over the period, particularly in small municipalities, which rely more heavily on transfers from higher levels of government as a source of revenue. These findings underscore the importance of FUNDEF in eliminating supply constraints to the improvement of education attainment. Enrolment rates are now nearly universal for primary and lower-secondary education. Emphasis should therefore be placed on policies to improve the quality of services and to remove supply constraints to the expansion of enrolment in upper-secondary and tertiary education.
Educational buildings and grounds can provide a supportive and stimulating environment for the learning process as well as contribute to greater community needs. These issues were addressed at an international conference entitled “Making Space: Architecture and Design for Young Children”. Described here are the importance of outdoor space to learning in New Zealand, presented at the event, and a campus for pupils in Scotland (United Kingdom) visited by conference participants.

Access to outdoor space is seen as essential to New Zealand children’s development. An early childhood education consultant explains how the early childhood curriculum is linked to both indoor and outdoor spaces in line with socio-cultural learning theory.

A new campus in Scotland built to regroup several educational institutions for young children has been successful in uniting different faiths and integrating pupils with special needs. Further information about the conference is available in PEB Exchange no. 57, February 2006.

French
Income is very unequally distributed in Latin America - but so too are opportunities for upward mobility. Early childhood development is a powerful mechanism to level the social playing field. More and better secondary education is key. Better administration of schools, combining greater flexibility with more accountability, a modern system of evaluation and incentives for school administrators and teachers are important ingredients for reforms.
French

This country policy profile on education in Brazil is part of the Education Policy Outlook series. Building on the first policy profile for Brazil (2015), it offers a concise analysis of where the education system stands today and how this compares to other systems. This profile offers relevant international policy examples that may serve as possible inspiration as policy makers work to address Brazil's key challenges and priorities, including in the post-COVID recovery. It brings together over a decade's worth of policy analysis by the Education Policy Outlook, as well as recent OECD data, relevant thematic and country-specific work and other international and national evidence. The report also benefits from the Education Policy Outlook's ongoing comparative analysis of resilience and responsiveness in education policy. This profile is complemented by its companion report Education Policy Outlook: Brazil - with a focus on national and subnational policies (both also available in Portuguese).

This country policy profile on education in Brazil is part of the Education Policy Outlook series. Building on the first policy profile for Brazil (2015), it offers a concise analysis of where the education system stands today in terms of strengths and challenges, and how this compares to other systems. This profile also analyses the evolution of ongoing and emerging related policy efforts in Brazil, including education responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. It brings together over a decade's worth of policy analysis by the Education Policy Outlook, as well as recent OECD data, relevant thematic and country-specific work and other international and national evidence. The report also benefits from the Education Policy Outlook's ongoing comparative analysis of resilience and responsiveness in education policy. This profile is complemented by its companion report Education Policy Outlook: Brazil - with a focus on international policies (both also available in Portuguese).

This country policy profile on education in Denmark is part of the Education Policy Outlook series. Building on the first country policy profile for Denmark (2014), it offers a concise analysis of where the education system stands today in terms of strengths, challenges and ongoing policy efforts, and how this compares to other systems. The profile brings together over a decade's worth of policy analysis by the Education Policy Outlook, as well as the latest OECD data, relevant thematic and country-specific work and other international and national evidence. It also offers analysis of Denmark’s system's initial responses to the COVID-19 crisis and provides insight into approaches to building greater responsiveness and resilience for the future.

This country policy profile on education in Estonia is part of the Education Policy Outlook series. Building on the first policy profile for Estonia (2016), it offers a concise analysis of where the education system stands today in terms of strengths, challenges and ongoing policy efforts, and how this compares to other systems. The profile brings together over a decade’s worth of policy analysis by the Education Policy Outlook, as well as the latest OECD data, relevant thematic and country-specific work and other international and national evidence. It also offers analysis of the Estonian education system’s initial responses to the COVID-19 crisis and provides insight into approaches to building greater responsiveness and resilience for the future.

This country policy profile on education in Finland is part of the Education Policy Outlook series. Building on the first policy profile for Finland (2013), it offers a concise analysis of where the education system stands today in terms of strengths, challenges and ongoing policy efforts, and how this compares to other systems. The profile brings together over a decade’s worth of policy analysis by the Education Policy Outlook, as well as the latest OECD data, relevant thematic and country-specific work and other international and national evidence. It also offers analysis of the Finnish education system’s initial responses to the COVID-19 crisis and provides insight into approaches to building greater responsiveness and resilience for the future

This country policy profile on education in France is part of the Education Policy Outlook series. Building on the first policy profile for France (2014), it offers a concise analysis of where the education system stands today in terms of strengths, challenges and ongoing policy efforts, and how this compares to other systems. The profile brings together over a decade’s worth of policy analysis by the Education Policy Outlook, as well as the latest OECD data, relevant thematic and country-specific work and other international and national evidence. It also offers analysis of the French education system’s initial responses to the COVID-19 crisis and provides insight into approaches to building greater responsiveness and resilience for the future.

French

This country policy profile on education in Germany is part of the Education Policy Outlook series. Building on the first policy profile for Germany (2014), it offers a concise analysis of where the education system stands today in terms of strengths, challenges and ongoing policy efforts, and how this compares to other systems. The profile brings together over a decade’s worth of policy analysis by the Education Policy Outlook, as well as the latest OECD data, relevant thematic and country-specific work and other international and national evidence. It also provides insight into approaches to building greater responsiveness and resilience for the future

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