OECD Journal: Economic Studies

Frequency :
1995-2856 (online)
1995-2848 (print)
Hide / Show Abstract

OECD Journal: Economic Studies publishes articles in the area of economic policy analysis, applied economics and statistical analysis, generally with an international or cross-country dimension. While it draws significantly on economic papers produced by the Economics Department and other parts of the OECD Secretariat for the Organisation’s intergovernmental committees, the submission of articles produced by non-OECD authors is encouraged. We also welcome comments on articles previously published in the journal. Now published as part of the OECD Journal package.


Latest Articles Hide / Show all Abstracts

Mark Number Date Article Volume and Issue Click to Access
  24 Oct 2014 Japan's challenging debt dynamics
Yvan Guillemette, Jan Stráský

A small simulation model is used to evaluate the contribution that the three arrows of the government’s strategy – bold monetary policy to achieve higher inflation, flexible fiscal policy and growth-boosting structural reforms – could make to reversing the rise in Japan’s public debt ratio, currently about 230% of GDP. The findings indicate that with fiscal consolidation amounting to around 7½ percentage points of GDP by 2020, modestly higher growth coming from increased female labour force participation and higher productivity growth, as well as inflation gradually rising to 2% thanks to unconventional monetary policy measures, the debt ratio could be put on a downward trajectory by the end of this decade, although it is likely to remain above 200% of GDP in 2035. Among the many uncertainties surrounding this scenario, the risk of a larger-than-projected increase in interest rates stands prominently and could prevent the turnaround in debt dynamics.

JEL classification codes: E63; H68.
Keywords: Japan; debt; deficit; fiscal; budget; projection; simulation; arrow; consolidation; growth; inflation; reform.

Online first Click to Access: 
  • PDF
  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/economics/japan-s-challenging-debt-dynamics_eco_studies-2014-5jxvbssqsvmv
  • READ
  05 Sep 2014 Foreign direct investment and reverse technology spillovers
Edmund Amann, Swati Virmani

The paper analyses the "feedback effect" of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth in emerging economies via technology spillovers across borders. We study the effect of R–D spillovers resulting from outward FDI flows from 18 emerging economies into 34 OECD countries over the 1990-2010 period, comparing the impact with that of spillovers resulting from inward FDI flows. The result confirms that FDI enhances productivity growth; however the impact is much larger when R-D-intensive developed countries invest in the emerging economies than the other way round. Country-specific bilateral elasticities also support this outcome.

JEL classification: F210, F430, F620, O470.
Keywords: Outward FDI, Inward FDI, Reverse technology spillovers, Total factor productivity.

Online first Click to Access: 
  • PDF
  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/economics/foreign-direct-investment-and-reverse-technology-spillovers_eco_studies-2014-5jxx56vcxn0n
  • READ
  28 July 2014 The future of health and long-term care spending
Christine de la Maisonneuve, Joaquim Oliveira Martins

This paper proposes a new set of public health and long-term care expenditure projections until 2060, following up on the previous set of projections published in 2006. It disentangles health from long-term care expenditure as well as the demographic from the non-demographic drivers, and refines the previous methodology, in particular by better identifying the underlying determinants of health and long-term care spending and by extending the country coverage to include BRIICS countries. A cost-containment and a cost-pressure scenario are provided together with sensitivity analysis. On average across OECD countries, total health and long-term care expenditure is projected to increase by 3.3 and 7.7 percentage points of GDP between 2010 and 2060 in the cost-containment and the cost-pressure scenarios, respectively. For the BRIICS over the same period, it is projected to increase by 2.8 and 7.3 percentage points of GDP in the costcontainment and the cost-pressure scenarios, respectively.

Online first Click to Access: 
  • PDF
  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/economics/the-future-of-health-and-long-term-care-spending_eco_studies-2014-5jz0v44s66nw
  • READ
  26 June 2014 Environmental policies and productivity growth
Tomasz Kozluk, Vera Zipperer

The economic effects of environmental policies are of central interest to policymakers. The traditional approach sees environmental policies as a burden on economic activity, at least in the short to medium term, as they raise costs without increasing output and restrict the set of production technologies and outputs. At the same time, the Porter Hypothesis claims that well-designed environmental policies can provide a "free lunch" – encouraging innovation, bringing about gains in profitability and productivity that can outweigh the costs of the policy. This paper reviews the empirical evidence on the link between environmental policy stringency and productivity growth, and the various channels through which such effects can take place. The results are ambiguous, in particular as many of the studies are fragile and context-specific, impeding the generalisation of conclusions. Practical problems related to data, measurement and estimation strategies are discussed, leading to suggestions as to how they can be addressed in future research. These include: improving the measurement of environmental policy stringency; investigating effects of different types of instruments and details of instrument design; exploiting cross-country variation; and the complementary use of different levels of aggregation.

Online first Click to Access: 
  • PDF
  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/economics/environmental-policies-and-productivity-growth_eco_studies-2014-5jz2drqml75j
  • READ
  05 Feb 2014 Grade repetition
Miyako Ikeda, Emma García

This article explores country-by-country differences in academic performance and attitudes towards school between students who repeated a grade in primary school, in secondary school or never repeated a grade. The analyses use PISA 2009 for 30 countries in which a relatively high proportion of students repeated a grade before the age of 15. The comparisons across countries and the examination of models of both academic and non-academic performance contribute to shed some light on the consequences of repeating a grade for students. The estimated associations suggest that in most countries examined, at the age of 15, students who repeated a grade in secondary school tend to perform better academically than do students who repeated a grade in primary school, but worse than non-repeaters. In terms of the measure of behavioural performance chosen for this analysis, attitudes towards school, in the majority of countries, non-repeaters tend to report more positive attitudes towards schools than primary and secondary-school repeaters, but the comparison between repeaters in primary and secondary schools shows less consistent patterns across countries. These differences are observed after accounting for background characteristics of the students and exploring some differential relationships between grade repetition and education outcomes according to student characteristics. The achievement and behavioural gaps among groups of repeaters may reflect differences in the development of academic and behavioural skills over the school years, as well as differences in the way these groups of students are treated across different educational systems.

Volume 2013 Issue 1 Click to Access: 
  • PDF
  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/economics/grade-repetition_eco_studies-2013-5k3w65mx3hnx
  • READ
  05 Feb 2014 Using a quasi-natural experiment to identify the effects of birth-related leave policies on subjective well-being in Europe
Anna Cristina D’Addio, Simon Chapple, Andreas Hoherz, Bert Van Landeghem

The purpose of this paper is to examine the welfare effects of birth-related leave (BRL) in terms of life satisfaction. To do so, we exploit variations in BRL policies to assess their impact on life satisfaction. The paper adds to the existing literature in various ways. First, it uses new data collected by Baldi et al. (2011) and Baldi and Chapple (2010) to describe how life satisfaction moves around the date of the reforms over time and in a number of EU countries covered in the Eurobarometer surveys. Second, the paper analyses the relation between life satisfaction and BRL in Germany and the United Kingdom with long individual panel data collected with the GSOEP and the BHPS survey. The potential endogeneity bias of the treatment effect is addressed by building a quasi-natural experiment using policy changes as the assignment rule. The results from a variety of different methods suggest that BRL polices generally have a significant positive effect on life satisfaction. Women on BRL have higher life satisfaction, controlling for observable and unobservable personal characteristics. This result is robust to alternative specifications.

JEL classification: H53, I16, J38
Keywords: Welfare, subjective well-being, difference-in-difference, birth-related leaves

Volume 2013 Issue 1 Click to Access: 
  • PDF
  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/economics/using-a-quasi-natural-experiment-to-identify-the-effects-of-birth-related-leave-policies-on-subjective-well-being-in-europe_eco_studies-2013-5k3tvtg6fvmq
  • READ
  05 Feb 2014 Towards global carbon pricing
Rob Dellink, Stéphanie Jamet, Jean Chateau, Romain Duval

Emissions trading systems (ETS) can play a major role in a cost-effective climate policy framework. Both direct linking of ETSs and indirect linking through a common crediting mechanism can reduce costs of action.We use a global recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model to assess the effects of direct and indirect linking of ETS systems across world regions. Linking of domestic Annex I ETSs leads to moderate aggregate cost savings, as differences in domestic permit prices are limited. Countries benefit directly from linking by either buying permits and avoiding investing in highcost mitigation options, or by exploiting relatively cheap mitigation options and selling permits at a higher price. Although the economy of the main permit sellers, such as Russia, is negatively affected by the real exchange rate appreciation that is induced by the large export of permits, on balance they also still benefit from linking. The costsaving potential for developed countries of well-functioning crediting mechanisms appears to be very large. Even limited use of credits would nearly halve mitigation costs; cost savings would be largest for carbon-intensive economies. However, one open issue iswhether these gains can be fully reaped in reality, given that direct linking and the use of crediting mechanisms both raise complex system design and implementation issues. The analysis in this paper shows, however, that the potential gains to be reaped are so large, that substantial efforts in this domain are warranted.

JEL classification: H23, O41, Q54
Keywords: Climate mitigation policy, emissions trading systems, general equilibrium models, linking carbon markets

Volume 2013 Issue 1 Click to Access: 
  • PDF
  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/economics/towards-global-carbon-pricing_eco_studies-2013-5k421kk9j3vb
  • READ
Add to Marked List