1887

OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers

The OECD Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) leads OECD research on the contribution of science, technology and industry to well-being and economic growth. STI Working Papers cover a broad range of topics including definition and measurement of science and technology indicators, global value chains, and research on policies to promote innovation. These technical or analytical working papers are prepared by staff or outside consultants to share early insights and elicit feedback.

English

Economic shocks and changes in global production structures

Methods for measuring economic resilience

Conventional studies on the impacts of economic shocks using global input-output tables (sensitivity analyses) assume stable production structures and thus, only reveal the marginal impacts of changes in final demand. However, when economic shocks occur, whether at home or abroad, economic agents are expected to react to reduce the negative impact or amplify the positive effects. The ability of a country to contain economic losses can be defined as the resilience to economic shocks. Using the OECD's annual Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) tables, 1995 to 2011, this paper investigates the relationship between changes in final demand and production structures for 61 economies. Our findings are summarised as follows. Production and final demand structures tend to change to reduce the negative feedbacks from final demand shocks. During economic downturns, structures tend to change so that the dependence on domestic services increases, while the dependence on domestic demand for goods, and the dependence on foreign demand for domestic goods and services, both decrease. Therefore, the domestic service sector seems to play a key role in temporarily containing the negative feedback. Countries that are able to prop up their economy by domestic service sectors instead of domestic goods and foreign sectors are more resilient to negative economic shocks.

English

Keywords: economic resilience, structural changes, input-output, global value chains
JEL: F47: International Economics / Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance / Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; D57: Microeconomics / General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium / General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium: Input-Output Tables and Analysis; E12: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / General Aggregative Models / General Aggregative Models: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; C14: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General / Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
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