OECD Economics Department Working Papers

New Evidence on the Determinants of Industrial Specialisation
ISSN :
1815-1973 (online)
DOI :
10.1787/18151973
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Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.

The views expressed in these papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD or of the governments of its member countries.

 
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Page: 1 (N° 1112) , 2 (N° 1062) , 3 (N° 1012) … 23 (N° 10) | Next
Mark Number Date TitleClick to Access
  N° 1112   18 Apr 2014 Click to Access:  New Evidence on the Determinants of Industrial Specialisation
Åsa Johansson, Eduardo Olaberria
Industrial specialization has important implications for economic performance; therefore, understanding its determinants is of key policy relevance. This paper quantifies the relationship between factor endowments, policies and institutions and patterns of industrial specialisation in...
  N° 1111   14 Apr 2014 Click to Access:  Economic Growth from the Household Perspective
Orsetta Causa, Sonia Araujo, Agnès Cavaciuti, Nicolas Ruiz, Zuzana Smidova
This paper provides an assessment of how households’ income has fared compared with GDP. While the prime focus is on incomes around the median, attention is paid also to the bottom of the income distribution. Thus, one contribution of the paper is to deliver a fresh assessment of the evolution...
  N° 1110   17 Apr 2014 Click to Access:  Would a Growth Slowdown in Emerging Markets Spill Over to High-income Countries?
Patrice Ollivaud, Elena Rusticelli, Cyrille Schwellnus
Growth in emerging market economies (EMEs) is set to durably slow from the rates observed over 2010-12 as cyclical effects fade, potential growth declines and external financing conditions tighten. Large negative current account balances make some EMEs vulnerable to sudden reversals in capital...
  N° 1109   31 Mar 2014 Click to Access:  Short-term Indicator Models for Quarterly GDP Growth in the BRIICS
Thomas Chalaux, Cyrille Schwellnus
This paper extends the OECD Economics Department’s suite of short-term indicator models for quarterly GDP growth, which currently cover only the G7 countries, to the BRIICS countries. Reflecting the relative scarcity of high-quality macroeconomic time series, the paper adopts a small-scale...
  N° 1108   24 Mar 2014 Click to Access:  The Prudential Regulation of Financial Institutions
William R. White
It is now six years since a devastating financial and economic crisis rocked the global economy. Supported strongly by the G20 process, international regulators led by the Financial Stability Board have been working hard ever since to develop new regulatory standards designed to prevent a...
  N° 1107   17 Mar 2014 Click to Access:  OECD Forecasts During and After the Financial Crisis
Nigel Pain, Christine Lewis, Thai-Thanh Dang, Yosuke Jin, Pete Richardson
This paper assesses the OECD’s projections for GDP growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery, focussing on lessons that can be learned. The projections repeatedly over-estimated growth, failing to anticipate the extent of the slowdown and later the weak pace of the...
  N° 1106   09 Jan 2014 Click to Access:  Fairly Sharing the Social Impact of the Crisis in Greece
Vassiliki Koutsogeorgopoulou, Manos Matsaganis, Chrysa Leventi, Jan-David Schneider
Poverty and income inequality have worsened since the onset of the crisis. While the design of fiscal measures has mitigated the burden sharing of fiscal adjustment, as the recession has deepened unemployment has risen, earnings have declined and social tensions have increased. Getting people...
  N° 1105   09 Jan 2014 Click to Access:  Dividing the Pie in Brazil: Income Distribution, Social Policies and the New Middle Class
Jens Arnold, João Jalles
Brazil has made remarkable progress in reducing poverty and inequality. This reduction is explained by strong growth but also by effective social policies. Besides growth, public services and cash transfers have played the biggest role, the latter notably through the successful "Bolsa Familia"...
  N° 1104   12 Dec 2013 Click to Access:  New Indicators of Competition Law and Policy in 2013 for OECD and non-OECD Countries
Enrico Alemani, Caroline Klein, Isabell Koske, Cristiana Vitale, Isabelle Wanner
This paper presents the new OECD competition law and policies (CLP) indicators which measure the strength and scope of competition regimes in 49 jurisdictions (OECD and non-OECD). The indicators cover areas for which there is a broad consensus among member countries on what constitutes ‘good’...
  N° 1103   11 Dec 2013 Click to Access:  The Effect of Government Debt, External Debt and their Interaction on OECD Interest Rates
David Turner, Francesca Spinelli
In the wake of the financial crisis there has been renewed focus on the importance of a country’s net external debt position in determining domestic interest rates and, relatedly, its vulnerability to a crisis. This paper extends the panel estimation of OECD countries described in Turner and...
  N° 1102   27 Jan 2014 Click to Access:  The State of the Banking Sector in Europe
Dirk Schoenmaker, Toon Peek
This paper reviews the state of the banking sector in Europe. At the aggregate level, the empirical data suggest that the Baltics, Cyprus, Greece and Ireland, in particular, are hit by a strong decline in lending in the wake of the financial crisis. This deleveraging is mainly caused by a...
  N° 1101   09 Dec 2013 Click to Access:  Getting Irish Youth on the Job Track
Alberto González Pandiella
Irish youth was hit hard by the crisis. Many young workers have remained unemployed for a long time and, unless it is tackled promptly, this issue will become one of the most enduring legacies of the recession. New labourmarket policy initiatives have been introduced recently, but more will be...
  N° 1100   06 Dec 2013 Click to Access:  New Econometric Estimates of Long-term Growth Effects of Different Areas of Public Spending
Omar Barbiero, Boris Cournède
Using panel data for OECD countries, this study investigates the extent to which changes in government spending on education, health and other areas influence long-term growth. The results suggest that, if total government spending is kept unchanged, increasing expenditure on health, education...
  N° 1099   06 Dec 2013 Click to Access:  Cross-Country Spillovers from Fiscal Consolidations
Antoine Goujard
In many OECD countries, government debt reached levels over recent years that call for reduction over the medium to longer term to ensure public finance sustainability. This paper investigates the international transmission of fiscal consolidation shocks via trade flows. Using a measure of...
  N° 1098   04 Dec 2013 Click to Access:  Informal Employment in Russia
Hartmut Lehmann, Anzelika Zaiceva
This paper takes stock of informal employment in Russia analysing its incidence and determinants. Using the regular 2003-11 waves and an informality supplement of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) it develops several measures of informal employment and demonstrates that the...
  N° 1097   26 Nov 2013 Click to Access:  Capacity Needs in the Automobile Industry in the Short- to Medium Run
Caroline Klein, Isabell Koske
This paper aims at identifying which countries and regions in the world might face structural overcapacities or capacity shortfalls in the automobile industry in the near future. It discusses the main forces that are likely to shape car demand over the next several years, including GDP growth,...
  N° 1096   19 Nov 2013 Click to Access:  Environmental Policies and Productivity Growth
Tomasz Koźluk, Vera Zipperer
The economic effects of environmental policies are of central interest to policymakers. The traditional approach sees environmental policies as a burden on economic activity, at least in the short to medium term, as they raise costs without increasing output and restrict the set of production...
  N° 1095   12 Nov 2013 Click to Access:  Green Growth Challenges and the Need for an Energy Reform in Mexico
Carla Valdivia de Richter
As Mexico seeks to boost economic growth, pressures on its natural resources and environmental outcomes may intensify, jeopardizing the sustainability of that growth and the well-being of the population. Costs of environmental degradation were estimated at approximately 5% of GDP in 2011,...
  N° 1094   12 Nov 2013 Click to Access:  From Bricks to Brains
David Haugh
With sound framework conditions, fine universities, good infrastructure and policies friendly towards foreign direct investment, Ireland scores high in international innovation scoreboards. Overall, policies to boost innovation and entrepreneurship are on the right track, but investment in...
  N° 1093   12 Nov 2013 Click to Access:  China's March to Prosperity
Vincent Koen, Richard Herd, Sam Hill
China is well-placed to avoid the so-called "middle-income trap" and to continue to converge towards the more advanced economies, even though growth is likely to slow from near double-digit rates in the first decade of this millennium to around 7% at the 2020 horizon. However, in order to...
  N° 1092   30 Oct 2013 Click to Access:  Productivity Measurement with Natural Capital
Nicola Brandt, Paul Schreyer, Vera Zipperer
Traditional measures of multi-factor productivity (MFP) growth generally do not recognise natural capital as inputs into the production process. Since productivity growth is measured as the residual between output and input growth, it will pick up the growth in unmeasured inputs, which can lead...
  N° 1091   28 Nov 2013 Click to Access:  Growth-promoting Policies and Macroeconomic Stability
Douglas Sutherland, Peter Hoeller
Policy reforms aimed at boosting long-run growth often have side effects – positive or negative – on an economy’s vulnerability to shocks and their propagation. Macroeconomic shocks as severe and protracted as those since 2007 warrant a reconsideration of the role growth-promoting policies play...
  N° 1090   10 Oct 2013 Click to Access:  Policies for Inclusive Urbanisation in China
Vincent Koen, Richard Herd, Xiao Wang, Thomas Chalaux
Urbanisation in China has long been held back by various restrictions on land and internal migration but has taken off since the 1990s, as these impediments started to be gradually relaxed. People have moved in large numbers to richer cities, where productivity is higher and has increased...
  N° 1089   02 Oct 2013 Click to Access:  Fiscal Devaluation – Can it Help to Boost Competitiveness?
Isabell Koske
The recent crisis has revealed large differences in external competitiveness between euro area member countries. Since nominal exchange rate devaluation is not an option for members of a currency area, governments in troubled member countries have been considering so-called fiscal devaluation,...
  N° 1088   01 Oct 2013 Click to Access:  How to Achieve Growth- and Equity-friendly Fiscal Consolidation?
Boris Cournède, Antoine Goujard, Álvaro Pina
Despite sustained efforts made in recent years to rein in budget deficits, a majority of OECD countries still face substantial fiscal consolidation needs. The choices made about which spending areas to curtail and which taxes to hike will have implications for near-term activity and long-term...
  N° 1087   12 Sep 2013 Click to Access:  Improving School-to-work Transitions in New Zealand
Alexandra Bibbee
The NZ labour market is among the most flexible in the OECD, and outcomes for its young people have been among the best. However, labour-market opportunities are heavily determined by initial education, where New Zealand’s system is also successful and innovative in many ways. Average PISA...
  N° 1086   12 Sep 2013 Click to Access:  The Agri-food Situation and Policies in Switzerland
Peter Jarrett, Charlotte Moeser
This paper examines the heavily supported Swiss food and agriculture sector. It reviews some of the key features and trends in the sector and reveals its low relative labour productivity in international comparison. It describes the existing policy regime, including its various forms of support...
  N° 1085   14 Aug 2013 Click to Access:  Japan's Challenging Debt Dynamics
Yvan Guillemette, Jan Strasky
This working paper presents the background and the details of the simulations behind Box 1.4 of the May 2013 OECD Economic Outlook. A small simulation model is used to evaluate the contribution that the three pillars of the government’s strategy – fiscal consolidation, growth-boosting...
  N° 1084   16 Aug 2013 Click to Access:  Transitions in and out of Unemployment among Young People in the Irish Recession
Elish Kelly, Seamus McGuinness, Philip O’Connell, David Haugh, Alberto González Pandiella
Young people have been hit hard by unemployment during the Irish recession. While much research has been undertaken to study the effects of the recession on overall labour market dynamics, little is known about the specific effects on youth unemployment and the associated challenges. This paper...
  N° 1083   06 Aug 2013 Click to Access:  Is There Convergence of Russia's Regions?
Hartmut Lehmann, Maria Giulia Silvagni
This paper analyses convergence in per capita gross regional product of Russia’s regions during the period 1995-2010, when regional data are available. Using a panel regression framework we find no evidence for beta-convergence. Instead we find divergence, which is, however, attenuated over...
  N° 1082   12 Aug 2013 Click to Access:  The Benefits and Costs of Highly Expansionary Monetary Policy
Łukasz Rawdanowicz, Romain Bouis, Shingo Watanabe
How far to go – and to remain – in the direction of highly expansionary monetary policy hinges on the balance of marginal benefits and costs of additional monetary easing and its expected evolution over time. This paper sketches a framework for assessing this balance and applies it to four OECD...
  N° 1081   12 Aug 2013 Click to Access:  The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy since the Onset of the Financial Crisis
Romain Bouis, Łukasz Rawdanowicz, Jean-Paul Renne, Shingo Watanabe, Ane Kathrine Christensen
In the wake of the Great Recession, a massive monetary policy stimulus was provided in the main OECD economies. It helped to stabilise financial markets and avoid deflation. Nonetheless, GDP growth has been sluggish and in some countries lower than expected given the measures taken, and...
  N° 1080   05 Aug 2013 Click to Access:  Responding to Key Well-being Challenges in Austria
Rauf Gönenç, Oliver Röhn, Christian Beer, Andreas Wörgötter
Important challenges for the future of Austrian well-being arise from demographic and environmental trends. The ageing of the population calls for a fair balance between life-time pension contributions and entitlements, drawing on the recent pension reform. Such progress will allow Austrians to...
  N° 1079   05 Aug 2013 Click to Access:  Austria's Well-being Goes Beyond GDP
Oliver Röhn, Rauf Gönenç, Christian Beer, Romina Boarini
Austria enjoys strong material well-being and high quality of life. Steady convergence with top GDP per capita levels translated into decisive improvements in household disposable incomes while significant redistribution has ensured low income inequality and poverty. This has been combined with...
  N° 1078   23 Aug 2013 Click to Access:  Improving Fiscal Federal Relations for a Stronger Mexico
Aida Caldera Sánchez
Mexico has achieved a high degree of decentralisation in public services, but the Mexican fiscal federal system has important shortcomings. States and municipalities have become heavily dependent on federal transfers to finance a growing share of public spending. This leaves the burden of...
  N° 1077   05 Aug 2013 Click to Access:  Deleveraging: Challenges, Progress and Policies
Romain Bouis, Ane Kathrine Christensen, Boris Cournède
In the run-up to the financial crisis, indebtedness of households and non-financial businesses rose to historically high levels in many OECD countries; gross debt of financial companies rose dramatically relative to GDP. Much of the debt accumulation appears to have been based on excessive...
  N° 1076   08 July 2013 Click to Access:  Policies to support sustainable long-term growth in New Zealand
Calista Cheung
As its workforce ages and major economies shift towards producing higher value-added goods and services, New Zealand will face increasing challenges to remain globally competitive and maintain high living standards. Future growth will need to come increasingly from productivity gains, and...
  N° 1075   03 July 2013 Click to Access:  Do Structural Policies Affect Macroeconomic Stability?
Volker Ziemann
Using a panel of OECD countries, this study assesses the linkages between structural policies and macroeconomic stability. Business cycle and time-series characteristics of GDP and its components are employed to define various measures for economic instability and for the persistence of adverse...
  N° 1074   01 July 2013 Click to Access:  A Simple Fiscal Stress Testing Model
Ondra Kamenik, Zdenek Tuma, David Vavra, Zuzana Smidova
This paper develops a simple model-based framework for stress testing fiscal consolidation strategies under different scenarios of future shocks. A baseline scenario assuming a gradual debt consolidation is presented and by assuming different future developments (e.g. lower potential growth)...
  N° 1073   01 July 2013 Click to Access:  Road Connectivity and the Border Effect
Henrik Braconier, Mauro Pisu
Several studies have reported a large negative effect of national borders on the volume of trade. We provide new estimates of the border effect for continental Europe using road rather than great circle – or "as-crows-fly" – distance. Road distances for 48 180 European city pairs have been...
  N° 1072   28 June 2013 Click to Access:  Fiscal Consolidation Across Government Levels - Part 3. Intergovernmental Grants, Pro- or Counter-cyclical?
Hansjörg Blöchliger, Balázs Égert
This paper provides empirical analysis that measures the cyclical properties of intergovernmental transfers (or grants). Modelling a fiscal policy reaction function this paper tests whether the transfers systems in OECD countries are pro- or counter-cyclical, i.e. whether they offset cyclical...
  N° 1071   28 June 2013 Click to Access:  Fiscal Consolidation Across Government Levels - Part 2. Fiscal Rules for Sub-central Governments, Update of the Institutional Indicator
Kaja Fredriksen
Fiscal rules that constrain sub-central government (SCG) budgeting are very common across the OECD, but there are substantial cross-country differences in their implementation and impact. This paper presents the 2011 update of the fiscal rules database established in 2005. As in 2005, budget...
  N° 1070   28 June 2013 Click to Access:  Fiscal Consolidation Across Government Levels - Part 1. How Much, What Policies?
Hansjörg Blöchliger
This paper provides an overview of fiscal consolidation efforts at the central and sub-central government level, both during the current and past consolidation episodes. After experiencing a deficit and debt hike during the crisis, sub-central debt is mostly stabilising. So far, sub-central...
  N° 1069   28 June 2013 Click to Access:  Restructuring the Electricity Sector and Promoting Green Growth in Japan
Randall S. Jones, Myungkyoo Kim
The 2011 disaster and nuclear problems opened the door to a new energy policy, as they raised fundamental questions about the electricity system’s ability to prevent and respond to accidents. In particular, the system has had difficulty coping with the shortages caused by the accident and the...
  N° 1068   27 June 2013 Click to Access:  Labour Market Policies to Promote Growth and Social Cohesion in Korea
Randall S. Jones, Satoshi Urasawa
Labour market reform to improve growth prospects and reduce inequality is a top priority in the face of rapid population ageing and a dualistic labour market. Sustaining output growth requires policies to mitigate the impact of rapid population ageing by increasing labour inputs from...
  N° 1067   27 June 2013 Click to Access:  Education Reform in Korea
Randall S. Jones
The rapid expansion of education in Korea is exceptional and has played a key role in its economic development. Sustaining Korea’s growth potential in the face of demographic headwinds requires further improving the education system to boost productivity growth. One priority is to upgrade early...
  N° 1066   25 June 2013 Click to Access:  Belgium: Enhancing the Cost Efficiency and Flexibility of the Health Sector to Adjust to Population Ageing
Stéphane Sorbe
Belgium has a good record in delivering accessible care, but adaptation to population ageing will be complicated by the fragmentation of responsibilities in the healthcare system and a strong reliance on government regulations. The organisation of the system could be rationalised by giving...
  N° 1065   25 June 2013 Click to Access:  Italy and the Euro Area Crisis
Oliver Denk
Italy’s policy of fiscal consolidation and growth-friendly structural reforms has substantially improved its economic prospects, but the adverse sentiment that the country has faced in the sovereign bond market over the past years has deep roots. It reflects lingering anxieties over the euro...
  N° 1064   25 June 2013 Click to Access:  Policy Implementation in Italy
Paul O'Brien
OECD indicators of structural policy show that policy changes in Italy since 1998 should have improved the environment for entrepreneurship significantly, but in the same period its economic performance has deteriorated noticeably. This may be partly because there is a difference between policy...
  N° 1063   25 June 2013 Click to Access:  Greening Growth in Luxembourg
Nicola Brandt
With strong economic growth overall and an increasingly important role as a regional economic centre, Luxembourg is experiencing mounting environmental pressures. This is mainly a result of a growing population and a rapid increase in transport, which is dominated by the car, as the number...
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