OECD Economics Department Working Papers

Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.

The views expressed in these papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD or of the governments of its member countries.

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The OECD Medium-Term Reference Scenario

Economic Outlook No.74

This working paper describes a medium-term reference scenario for the OECD based on the shortterm projections described in OECD Economic Outlook No.74. OECD-wide real GDP is projected to expand at 2¾ per cent per annum between 2006 and 2009 and the area-wide rate of unemployment to fall below 6 per cent at the end of the period, while inflation rises only slightly. Despite a fairly robust recovery, fiscal balances remain in significant deficit for the area as a whole; there is little overall improvement in current external imbalances between regions ...


Keywords: forecasts, international, OECD
JEL: C5: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / Econometric Modeling
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