2023 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2023 Issue 1

A long unwinding road

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2023 Issue 1

Global economic developments have begun to improve, helped by lower energy prices, improving business and consumer sentiment, and the reopening of China. However, the OECD Economic Outlook highlights that the upturn is fragile and the recovery is set to remain weak by past standards, with the effects of tighter monetary policy increasingly being felt. The Outlook underlines a range of risks, including the possibility that inflation could prove more persistent than projected and that the impact of higher interest rates on financial markets and economic activity could be stronger than expected. Well-calibrated policy measures are required to unwind the impact of the recent sequence of negative shocks to the global economy, restore economic stability, and strengthen prospects for strong, inclusive and sustainable improvements in living standards.

This issue includes an assessment of the global economic situation, a chapter on promoting gender equality to strengthen economic growth and resilience and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD members as well as for selected partner economies.

English Also available in: French


Real GDP growth is projected to slow to 0.9% in 2023, before picking up to 1.4% in 2024. Inflation, tighter financing conditions, and high uncertainty will drag on domestic growth, while weak global trade prospects will weigh on net exports. By contrast, public investment, solid labour demand and automatic wage indexation will sustain activity. Headline inflation is projected to fall to 4% in 2023, due to falling energy prices, and 3.7% in 2024. The main risks to the outlook include more persistent inflation due to wage indexation and a consequent loss of export competitiveness.

English Also available in: French



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