OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2020 Issue 1
The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.
Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, a series of notes on the macroeconomic and structural policy issues related to the COVID-19 outbreak and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.
Portugal
The economy is projected to shrink by 11.3% in 2020, should a second pandemic outbreak hit at the end of 2020 (the double-hit scenario). Assuming a single wave of the pandemic (the single-hit scenario), GDP is expected to decline by 9.4% in 2020, with a rebound of 6.3% in 2021. In the double-hit scenario, the recovery will be slower due to prolonged export weaknesses, heightened uncertainty, additional bankruptcies, and prolonged unemployment spells. By the end of 2021, public debt (Maastricht definition) is expected to increase to 131% of GDP if the virus outbreak subsides by this summer and 138% of GDP if there is a second wave later this year.
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