2019 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2019 Issue 2

Preliminary version

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2019 Issue 2

The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.

Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment, a series of focus notes on selected macroeconomic and structural issues, and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.

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The economy is estimated to have expanded by 1% in 2019, but growth is projected to ease somewhat in 2020‑21. The temporary effect of the consumption tax increase on GDP growth will be mitigated by fiscal measures and the 2020 Olympic Games in Tokyo. With wage and investment growth sustained by labour and capacity shortages, GDP growth is set to remain close to potential following the rollback of the temporary fiscal measures in 2021. Headline inflation is projected to edge up to 1½ per cent by 2021, sustained by continued wage and economic growth.

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