The economy is in recession. Falling oil prices, international sanctions and capital flight have reduced investment, domestic consumption and imports. The large depreciation of the ruble has pushed inflation to double digits and reduced real incomes, especially of the poorest. Recovery will be only gradual against the backdrop of an uncertain external environment and lack of structural reforms. Unemployment will rise from the current low levels. Growth is projected to turn positive in 2017 as exports strengthen and domestic demand recovers.