2014 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2014 Issue 1

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2014 Issue 1

The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances. Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment, chapters summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country, a special chapter on growth prospects and fiscal requirements over the long term and a statistical annex which includes data on housing, debt, and many other variables.

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The moderate recovery is projected to continue, based on robust export growth and a gradual acceleration of private investment. The latter will nonetheless continue to be hampered by an uncertain business environment related to controversial domestic policies and tight credit conditions, which have been alleviated only partly by the central bank’s Funding for Growth Scheme and by its low policy rate. Cyclical slack and wage moderation will keep core inflation broadly in line with the 3% target, with headline inflation temporarily lower. Unemployment should broadly stabilise over the projection horizon, and the current account surplus is set to widen further.

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