Growth has continued to moderate in 2011, as higher interest rates and tighter credit to the private sector slowed investment in housing and foreign trade weakened. In 2012, export growth will be held to around 7% by weak world demand and a decline in competitiveness, but the impact on activity may be partially offset by increased public spending and a cut in income taxes. Nonetheless, real GDP is set to grow below potential in 2012. Together with a fall in import prices, this should help disinflation, permitting some reduction in policy interest rates. With domestic demand and foreign trade picking up in 2013, GDP growth should recover to close to 10%. The downward trend in the current account surplus should continue, despite an improvement in the terms of trade, with the surplus falling about 2% of GDP by 2013.