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2004 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2004 Issue 2

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2004 Issue 2

OECD's December 2004 assessment of economic developments and prospects.  In addition to the regular economic assessments and statistical information, this issue includes articles examining oil price developments and savings behaviour and the effectiveness of fiscal policy.

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Portugal

The Portuguese economy emerged from recession in 2004, driven by exports and private domestic demand. Real GDP growth is expected to pick up further and reach 2¾ per cent in 2006. By any measure, the economy would still not be operating at its potential at the end of the projection period. As a result the inflation differential vis-à-vis the euro area should remain small. Fiscal consolidation remains a challenge for policymakers. Reliance on large one-off measures to keep the deficit below 3 per cent of GDP has become the norm since 2002. These should be replaced by strict controls on spending and the implementation of already-approved reforms should be accelerated. A radical reform of the pension system is also needed to ensure the long-term sustainability of public finances. ...

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