OECD Development Centre Working Papers
The OECD Development Centre links OECD members with developing and emerging economies and fosters debate and discussion to seek creative policy solutions to emerging global issues and development challenges. This series of working papers is intended to disseminate the OECD Development Centre’s research findings rapidly among specialists in the field concerned. These papers are generally available in the original English or French, with a summary in the other language.
- ISSN: 18151949 (online)
- https://doi.org/10.1787/18151949
Herding in Aid Allocation
Aid ineffectiveness, fragmentation, and volatility have already been highlighted by
scholars and OECD studies. Far fewer studies have been devoted to another problem of capital
flows: herding behaviour. Building upon a methodology applied to financial markets, where
herding is a common feature, this article attempts to measure herding behaviour in the allocation
of foreign aid, proposing different indexes that try to capture the specific features of aid
allocation. Of course, herding can also be beneficial. When a country faces an earthquake, a
tsunami, or any humanitarian disaster, the rush of donors is a positive factor. Excluding such
cases of beneficial herding, we attempt to focus on pure herding behaviour, creating pendulum
swing effects comparable to those in financial markets. . Our different indexes all detect donor
herding, its exact size depending on the measure adopted. Our preferred index, relying on threeyear
disbursements, indicates a significant level of herding, similar to that which is found on
financial markets. We also uncover major differences across different types of donors, with no, or
very limited, herding among multilateral donors, in contrast to bilateral donors, always subject
to herding behaviour. We then follow by investigating the empirical causes of herding. We find
that while political transitions away from democracy are accompanied by herding out,
transitions towards democracy do not affect herding levels. Finally, we show that observable
determinants actually explain little of the herding levels, leaving a large part of herding
unexplained.
Keywords: fragmentation, aid, volatility, herding
JEL:
F35: International Economics / International Finance / Foreign Aid;
F34: International Economics / International Finance / International Lending and Debt Problems
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