OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2020-2029
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2020-2029 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, incorporating expertise from collaborating member countries and international commodity organisations. It provides market projections for national, regional and global supply and demand of major agricultural commodities, biofuel and fish.
During the preparation of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2020-2029, the exact effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on agricultural markets were still largely unknown and they were therefore not incorporated in the baseline projections. Nevertheless, the Outlook aims to outline the channels of transmission of COVID-19 impacts on the various food and agriculture sectors.
Supplementary information can be found at www.agri-outlook.org.
From Chapter:
Statistical annex
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2020-2029 - © OECD 2020
| C.7 | World fish and seafood projections | ||||||||||||
| C.7 | World fish and seafood projections | ||||||||||||
| Calendar year | |||||||||||||
| | | | Average 2017-19est | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
| | FISH 1 | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | kt | 175 798 | 179 002 | 178 372 | 182 285 | 185 418 | 188 113 | 190 563 | 191 516 | 195 448 | 197 962 | 200 400 |
| | of which aquaculture | kt | 81 910 | 85 964 | 87 691 | 89 955 | 92 343 | 94 655 | 96 860 | 99 037 | 101 007 | 103 078 | 105 205 |
| | Consumption | kt | 176 248 | 180 497 | 179 717 | 183 480 | 186 463 | 189 008 | 191 308 | 192 111 | 195 893 | 198 257 | 200 545 |
| | of which for food | kt | 155 109 | 160 016 | 160 492 | 163 355 | 166 389 | 168 930 | 171 289 | 173 106 | 175 756 | 178 119 | 180 416 |
| | of which for reduction | kt | 16 902 | 16 404 | 15 220 | 16 201 | 16 222 | 16 297 | 16 310 | 15 367 | 16 571 | 16 643 | 16 686 |
| | Price | ||||||||||||
| | Aquaculture 2 | USD/t | 3 022.3 | 3 041.0 | 3 194.8 | 3 328.8 | 3 420.7 | 3 567.4 | 3 634.4 | 3 684.9 | 3 629.6 | 3 660.5 | 3 708.5 |
| | Capture 3 | USD/t | 1 831.0 | 1 917.0 | 1 978.3 | 2 036.3 | 2 078.4 | 2 149.9 | 2 188.4 | 2 238.8 | 2 214.9 | 2 231.2 | 2 247.2 |
| | Product traded 4 | USD/t | 3 032.7 | 3 135.0 | 3 260.0 | 3 396.7 | 3 490.6 | 3 603.4 | 3 634.4 | 3 684.9 | 3 629.6 | 3 660.5 | 3 690.1 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | kt | 30 101 | 30 262 | 30 245 | 30 423 | 30 741 | 30 889 | 30 978 | 31 121 | 31 249 | 31 349 | 31 410 |
| | of which aquaculture | kt | 4 694 | 4 870 | 4 954 | 5 049 | 5 164 | 5 280 | 5 324 | 5 421 | 5 505 | 5 569 | 5 597 |
| | Consumption | kt | 37 859 | 37 858 | 37 713 | 38 042 | 38 279 | 38 416 | 38 438 | 38 557 | 38 665 | 38 853 | 39 024 |
| | of which for food | kt | 31 724 | 32 064 | 31 924 | 32 267 | 32 497 | 32 645 | 32 665 | 32 770 | 32 888 | 33 085 | 33 264 |
| | of which for reduction | kt | 4 928 | 4 651 | 4 648 | 4 636 | 4 646 | 4 636 | 4 640 | 4 656 | 4 648 | 4 641 | 4 635 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | kt | 145 697 | 148 740 | 148 128 | 151 861 | 154 677 | 157 224 | 159 585 | 160 395 | 164 199 | 166 612 | 168 990 |
| | of which aquaculture | kt | 77 216 | 81 094 | 82 737 | 84 907 | 87 179 | 89 375 | 91 536 | 93 616 | 95 502 | 97 509 | 99 608 |
| | Consumption | kt | 138 389 | 142 638 | 142 004 | 145 437 | 148 184 | 150 592 | 152 870 | 153 554 | 157 228 | 159 403 | 161 521 |
| | of which for food | kt | 123 385 | 127 952 | 128 568 | 131 088 | 133 893 | 136 285 | 138 624 | 140 337 | 142 868 | 145 034 | 147 152 |
| | of which for reduction | kt | 11 974 | 11 753 | 10 572 | 11 565 | 11 576 | 11 661 | 11 670 | 10 711 | 11 923 | 12 002 | 12 051 |
| | OECD | ||||||||||||
| | Production | kt | 29 473 | 29 684 | 29 302 | 29 568 | 29 905 | 30 075 | 30 171 | 29 925 | 30 335 | 30 587 | 30 714 |
| | of which aquaculture | kt | 6 756 | 7 051 | 7 163 | 7 280 | 7 422 | 7 563 | 7 627 | 7 755 | 7 882 | 7 988 | 8 073 |
| | Consumption | kt | 39 434 | 39 253 | 38 890 | 39 329 | 39 584 | 39 740 | 39 772 | 39 668 | 39 945 | 40 180 | 40 372 |
| | of which for food | kt | 32 811 | 32 962 | 32 814 | 33 203 | 33 460 | 33 612 | 33 637 | 33 716 | 33 861 | 34 083 | 34 273 |
| | of which for reduction | kt | 5 198 | 4 957 | 4 754 | 4 817 | 4 828 | 4 844 | 4 863 | 4 693 | 4 838 | 4 863 | 4 878 |
| | FISHMEAL 5 | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | kt | 5 343.4 | 5 305.3 | 5 057.7 | 5 364.5 | 5 429.5 | 5 506.0 | 5 566.7 | 5 375.8 | 5 749.6 | 5 824.0 | 5 890.2 |
| | from whole fish | kt | 4 085.0 | 4 012.5 | 3 738.4 | 4 009.3 | 4 034.5 | 4 074.5 | 4 096.6 | 3 871.1 | 4 203.3 | 4 239.8 | 4 269.0 |
| | Consumption | kt | 5 353.1 | 5 312.9 | 5 290.8 | 5 236.6 | 5 336.1 | 5 490.2 | 5 549.7 | 5 619.6 | 5 650.6 | 5 739.2 | 5 874.7 |
| | Variation in stocks | kt | -12.8 | -7.6 | -233.2 | 127.9 | 93.4 | 15.8 | 17.0 | -243.9 | 99.0 | 84.9 | 15.5 |
| | Price 6 | USD/t | 1 447.7 | 1 418.3 | 1 502.5 | 1 467.1 | 1 499.1 | 1 539.3 | 1 575.7 | 1 701.3 | 1 638.8 | 1 656.4 | 1 676.9 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | kt | 1 591.5 | 1 531.6 | 1 544.2 | 1 556.2 | 1 578.0 | 1 592.0 | 1 610.3 | 1 631.3 | 1 646.5 | 1 662.2 | 1 678.1 |
| | from whole fish | kt | 1 175.9 | 1 120.6 | 1 125.5 | 1 127.0 | 1 133.0 | 1 134.3 | 1 138.8 | 1 146.4 | 1 148.0 | 1 150.1 | 1 152.2 |
| | Consumption | kt | 1 640.2 | 1 621.7 | 1 566.5 | 1 544.5 | 1 552.2 | 1 573.5 | 1 564.3 | 1 553.3 | 1 555.9 | 1 558.5 | 1 566.4 |
| | Variation in stocks | kt | -9.1 | -32.6 | -52.2 | 35.9 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 4.0 | -52.9 | 34.5 | 8.4 | 3.0 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | kt | 3 751.9 | 3 773.6 | 3 513.4 | 3 808.3 | 3 851.4 | 3 914.0 | 3 956.3 | 3 744.4 | 4 103.1 | 4 161.8 | 4 212.1 |
| | from whole fish | kt | 2 909.1 | 2 892.0 | 2 612.9 | 2 882.3 | 2 901.5 | 2 940.2 | 2 957.8 | 2 724.7 | 3 055.3 | 3 089.7 | 3 116.8 |
| | Consumption | kt | 3 867.5 | 3 801.2 | 3 824.4 | 3 782.1 | 3 863.9 | 3 986.7 | 4 045.4 | 4 116.3 | 4 134.8 | 4 210.6 | 4 328.3 |
| | Variation in stocks | kt | -3.7 | 25.0 | -181.0 | 92.0 | 87.0 | 14.0 | 13.0 | -191.0 | 64.5 | 76.5 | 12.5 |
| | OECD | ||||||||||||
| | Production | kt | 1 614.5 | 1 557.4 | 1 524.5 | 1 555.6 | 1 579.6 | 1 601.7 | 1 624.8 | 1 603.1 | 1 655.5 | 1 680.0 | 1 702.0 |
| | from whole fish | kt | 1 200.8 | 1 145.4 | 1 104.9 | 1 125.9 | 1 134.2 | 1 143.8 | 1 153.3 | 1 118.4 | 1 157.4 | 1 168.4 | 1 176.8 |
| | Consumption | kt | 1 873.8 | 1 921.6 | 1 864.9 | 1 831.0 | 1 842.0 | 1 871.9 | 1 863.8 | 1 855.5 | 1 863.5 | 1 876.2 | 1 899.0 |
| | Variation in stocks | kt | 5.2 | -47.6 | -62.2 | 30.9 | 11.4 | 3.8 | 7.0 | -57.9 | 34.5 | 10.4 | 6.0 |
| | FISH OIL 5 | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | kt | 1 187.4 | 1 270.8 | 1 224.6 | 1 286.5 | 1 300.2 | 1 316.4 | 1 328.8 | 1 294.4 | 1 363.6 | 1 377.9 | 1 391.2 |
| | from whole fish | kt | 702.2 | 729.1 | 674.6 | 724.8 | 727.8 | 734.0 | 736.4 | 692.1 | 752.6 | 758.2 | 762.5 |
| | Consumption | kt | 1 210.2 | 1 254.9 | 1 254.4 | 1 261.6 | 1 299.2 | 1 312.9 | 1 327.4 | 1 336.3 | 1 339.2 | 1 382.2 | 1 392.5 |
| | Variation in stocks | kt | -22.8 | 13.0 | -31.8 | 23.9 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 3.4 | -38.9 | 28.5 | -0.2 | 0.7 |
| | Price 7 | USD/t | 1 600.3 | 1 871.0 | 1 956.0 | 1 898.3 | 1 920.0 | 1 959.4 | 2 003.8 | 2 131.7 | 2 075.9 | 2 106.4 | 2 142.9 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | kt | 457.1 | 460.8 | 465.1 | 469.4 | 474.8 | 479.4 | 484.3 | 489.6 | 493.9 | 498.0 | 502.0 |
| | from whole fish | kt | 214.9 | 201.4 | 200.7 | 199.7 | 199.8 | 199.2 | 199.0 | 199.3 | 198.7 | 198.3 | 197.9 |
| | Consumption | kt | 593.9 | 611.8 | 616.6 | 618.4 | 639.7 | 650.5 | 658.6 | 671.1 | 667.1 | 691.5 | 695.0 |
| | Variation in stocks | kt | -4.1 | -9.1 | -13.8 | 11.9 | 3.0 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -14.9 | 11.5 | 2.8 | -0.3 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | kt | 732.3 | 810.0 | 759.6 | 817.1 | 825.5 | 837.0 | 844.5 | 804.8 | 869.7 | 879.9 | 889.2 |
| | from whole fish | kt | 489.3 | 527.7 | 473.9 | 525.1 | 528.1 | 534.8 | 537.5 | 492.8 | 553.8 | 559.9 | 564.6 |
| | Consumption | kt | 578.1 | 623.0 | 619.9 | 627.2 | 645.5 | 650.4 | 658.8 | 657.2 | 666.1 | 686.7 | 695.5 |
| | Variation in stocks | kt | -18.8 | 22.0 | -18.0 | 12.0 | -2.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | -24.0 | 17.0 | -3.0 | 1.0 |
| | OECD | ||||||||||||
| | Production | kt | 558.4 | 559.1 | 554.3 | 563.2 | 569.5 | 575.9 | 582.4 | 579.3 | 591.9 | 598.2 | 603.7 |
| | from whole fish | kt | 252.5 | 244.1 | 233.9 | 237.0 | 237.5 | 238.2 | 239.1 | 230.5 | 237.8 | 239.0 | 239.7 |
| | Consumption | kt | 771.2 | 803.6 | 802.7 | 813.4 | 841.1 | 851.9 | 860.5 | 862.4 | 869.4 | 902.6 | 910.4 |
| | Variation in stocks | kt | 4.7 | -11.1 | -19.8 | 14.9 | -1.0 | 6.5 | 0.4 | -21.9 | 14.5 | -2.2 | -0.3 |
| Note: The term “fish” indicates fish, crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic animals, but excludes aquatic mammals, crocodiles, caimans, alligators and aquatic plants. Average 2017-19est: Data for 2019 are estimated. Prices are in nominal terms. | |||||||||||||
| Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer | |||||||||||||
Data are in live weight equivalent. | |||||||||||||
World unit value of aquaculture fisheries production (live weight basis). | |||||||||||||
FAO estimated value of world ex vessel value of capture fisheries production excluding for reduction. | |||||||||||||
World unit value of trade (sum of exports and imports). | |||||||||||||
Data are in product weight. | |||||||||||||
Fishmeal, 64-65% protein, Hamburg, Germany. | |||||||||||||
Fish oil, any origin, N.W. Europe. | |||||||||||||
| Source: OECD/FAO (2020), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database).dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en | |||||||||||||