OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026

Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017
A.35 | Main policy assumptions for cotton markets | ||||||||||||
A.35 | Main policy assumptions for cotton markets | ||||||||||||
Marketing year | |||||||||||||
| | | Average 2014-16est | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| ARGENTINA | ||||||||||||
| Export tax equivalent of export barriers | % | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Tariff equivalent of import barriers | % | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| BRAZIL | ||||||||||||
| Producer Minimum Price, lint cotton | BRL/t | 3 721.6 | 4 365.8 | 4 799.8 | 4 799.8 | 4 799.8 | 4 799.8 | 4 799.8 | 4 852.8 | 5 080.1 | 5 257.0 | 5 440.1 |
| Tariff equivalent of import barriers | % | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EUROPEAN UNION | ||||||||||||
| Area for coupled payment | kha | 301.7 | 301.7 | 301.7 | 301.7 | 301.7 | 301.7 | 301.7 | 301.7 | 301.7 | 301.7 | 301.7 |
| Coupled payment per ha 1 | EUR/ha | 853.3 | 830.0 | 830.0 | 830.0 | 830.0 | 830.0 | 830.0 | 830.0 | 830.0 | 830.0 | 830.0 |
| Tariff equivalent of import barriers | % | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| INDIA | ||||||||||||
| Minimum support price | INR/t | 39 090.4 | 41 452.8 | 43 061.4 | 44 677.5 | 46 327.2 | 48 169.3 | 51 031.4 | 51 031.4 | 51 031.4 | 51 031.4 | 51 031.4 |
| Tariff equivalent of import barriers | % | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| JAPAN | ||||||||||||
| Tariff equivalent of import barriers | % | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| KOREA | ||||||||||||
| Tariff equivalent of import barriers | % | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| MEXICO | ||||||||||||
| Tariff equivalent of import barriers | % | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| RUSSIA | ||||||||||||
| Tariff equivalent of import barriers | % | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| UNITED STATES | ||||||||||||
| STAX participation rate | % | 28.5 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 |
| CRP area | Mha | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Economic Adjustment Assistance payment level | USD/t | 66.1 | 66.1 | 66.1 | 66.1 | 66.1 | 66.1 | 66.1 | 66.1 | 66.1 | 66.1 | 66.1 |
| TRQ | kt | 73.2 | 73.2 | 73.2 | 73.2 | 73.2 | 73.2 | 73.2 | 73.2 | 73.2 | 73.2 | 73.2 |
| In-quota tariff | USD/t | 44.0 | 44.0 | 44.0 | 44.0 | 44.0 | 44.0 | 44.0 | 44.0 | 44.0 | 44.0 | 44.0 |
| Out-of-quota tariff | USD/t | 314.0 | 314.0 | 314.0 | 314.0 | 314.0 | 314.0 | 314.0 | 314.0 | 314.0 | 314.0 | 314.0 |
| CHINA | ||||||||||||
| TRQ | kt | 894.0 | 894.0 | 894.0 | 894.0 | 894.0 | 894.0 | 894.0 | 894.0 | 894.0 | 894.0 | 894.0 |
| Target price | CNY/t | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. | .. |
| In-quota tariff | % | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Out-of-quota tariff | % | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 |
| TURKEY | ||||||||||||
| Tariff equivalent of import barriers | % | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Not available | |||||||||||||
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions. Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated. | |||||||||||||
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer | |||||||||||||
If the area is higher than the ceiling, the amount is proportionally reduced. | |||||||||||||
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en |