1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015

This edition of the Agricultural Outlook – the twenty-first OECD edition and the eleventh prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) – provides projections to 2024 for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish. The 2015 report provides a special focus on prospects and challenges for Brazilian agriculture.

The market projections not only cover OECD member countries (European Union as a region) but also FAO member countries, notably Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, People's Republic of China and South Africa.

English French, Spanish, Chinese

From Chapter: Commodity snapshots
.

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015 - © OECD 2015

‌3.A1.1World cereal projections
3.A1.1World cereal projections
  Marketing year
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2012-14est
‌2015‌
‌2016‌
‌2017‌
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
WHEAT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
700.4
 
723.8
 
723.8
 
731.6
 
740.3
 
745.9
 
756.4
 
763.2
 
771.6
 
779.2
 
786.7
 
Area
Mha
221.6
 
224.6
 
222.8
 
223.5
 
224.2
 
223.9
 
224.7
 
225.0
 
225.4
 
225.8
 
226.1
 
Yield
t/ha
3.16
 
3.22
 
3.25
 
3.27
 
3.30
 
3.33
 
3.37
 
3.39
 
3.42
 
3.45
 
3.48
 
Consumption
Mt
694.4
 
711.1
 
720.9
 
727.1
 
737.4
 
744.1
 
752.7
 
760.2
 
768.4
 
776.9
 
784.3
 
Feed use
Mt
125.7
 
129.3
 
132.5
 
133.6
 
137.1
 
138.0
 
140.4
 
141.9
 
144.0
 
147.0
 
148.9
 
Food use
Mt
480.9
 
489.2
 
495.1
 
500.1
 
505.8
 
510.7
 
515.5
 
519.7
 
525.1
 
530.6
 
535.7
 
Biofuel use
Mt
6.6
 
6.9
 
7.3
 
8.1
 
8.3
 
8.6
 
8.2
 
8.1
 
7.9
 
7.6
 
7.5
 
Other use
Mt
81.2
 
85.7
 
85.9
 
85.3
 
86.2
 
86.8
 
88.6
 
90.5
 
91.5
 
91.8
 
92.2
 
Exports
Mt
147.7
 
150.9
 
150.3
 
153.3
 
156.0
 
157.6
 
159.6
 
160.9
 
162.2
 
163.2
 
164.6
 
Closing stocks
Mt
180.6
 
211.4
 
214.2
 
218.7
 
221.7
 
223.4
 
227.1
 
230.2
 
233.3
 
235.6
 
238.0
 
Price 1
USD/t
302.0
 
246.6
 
249.0
 
248.2
 
249.5
 
256.7
 
258.5
 
262.2
 
266.3
 
270.2
 
271.8
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
362.4
 
368.5
 
367.2
 
370.2
 
375.7
 
376.9
 
382.7
 
385.0
 
388.9
 
392.4
 
395.6
 
Consumption
Mt
265.2
 
267.9
 
270.8
 
269.9
 
273.1
 
274.2
 
276.7
 
278.3
 
280.5
 
282.5
 
283.9
 
Net trade
Mt
99.2
 
97.9
 
96.4
 
97.9
 
100.0
 
101.6
 
103.9
 
105.2
 
106.9
 
108.6
 
110.6
 
Closing stocks
Mt
67.2
 
77.3
 
77.3
 
79.8
 
82.3
 
83.5
 
85.6
 
87.1
 
88.6
 
89.8
 
90.9
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
338.0
 
355.3
 
356.6
 
361.4
 
364.6
 
369.0
 
373.7
 
378.2
 
382.7
 
386.8
 
391.1
 
Consumption
Mt
429.3
 
443.2
 
450.1
 
457.2
 
464.2
 
470.0
 
476.0
 
481.9
 
487.9
 
494.4
 
500.4
 
Net trade
Mt
-97.1
 
-97.9
 
-96.4
 
-97.9
 
-100.0
 
-101.6
 
-103.9
 
-105.2
 
-106.9
 
-108.6
 
-110.6
 
Closing stocks
Mt
113.4
 
134.0
 
136.9
 
139.0
 
139.4
 
140.0
 
141.6
 
143.1
 
144.7
 
145.8
 
147.1
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
285.7
 
288.0
 
284.8
 
285.5
 
288.9
 
289.0
 
293.6
 
294.7
 
297.4
 
299.9
 
302.2
 
Consumption
Mt
219.2
 
220.9
 
222.6
 
220.7
 
222.5
 
222.7
 
224.4
 
225.2
 
226.8
 
228.3
 
229.1
 
Net trade
Mt
65.4
 
65.4
 
62.3
 
62.9
 
64.1
 
65.1
 
67.3
 
68.3
 
69.5
 
70.6
 
72.4
 
Closing stocks
Mt
49.0
 
56.1
 
56.0
 
57.9
 
60.2
 
61.3
 
63.2
 
64.4
 
65.6
 
66.6
 
67.4
 
COARSE GRAINS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
1 255.3
 
1 276.2
 
1 297.2
 
1 323.9
 
1 345.3
 
1 365.6
 
1 381.5
 
1 396.4
 
1 414.7
 
1 431.0
 
1 449.4
 
Area
Mha
336.8
 
341.7
 
344.4
 
346.6
 
348.9
 
350.4
 
351.1
 
351.6
 
352.3
 
353.0
 
353.7
 
Yield
t/ha
3.73
 
3.73
 
3.77
 
3.82
 
3.86
 
3.90
 
3.94
 
3.97
 
4.02
 
4.05
 
4.10
 
Consumption
Mt
1 215.0
 
1 280.0
 
1 296.5
 
1 312.2
 
1 334.6
 
1 353.6
 
1 371.1
 
1 391.0
 
1 408.0
 
1 424.7
 
1 440.1
 
Feed use
Mt
694.7
 
736.3
 
747.9
 
760.5
 
775.3
 
788.1
 
800.3
 
813.9
 
826.0
 
839.1
 
850.7
 
Food use
Mt
200.2
 
205.5
 
209.5
 
212.9
 
216.4
 
220.3
 
224.0
 
227.7
 
231.7
 
235.7
 
239.5
 
Biofuel use
Mt
143.9
 
150.9
 
150.7
 
150.6
 
153.8
 
155.0
 
153.8
 
154.1
 
153.8
 
153.0
 
152.1
 
Other use
Mt
130.9
 
140.6
 
141.1
 
139.3
 
139.5
 
139.7
 
141.5
 
143.0
 
143.6
 
143.4
 
143.8
 
Exports
Mt
159.4
 
155.4
 
158.7
 
161.9
 
164.7
 
167.6
 
171.0
 
174.2
 
178.0
 
181.3
 
185.0
 
Closing stocks
Mt
220.4
 
251.1
 
245.9
 
251.7
 
256.5
 
262.5
 
267.1
 
266.6
 
267.5
 
267.9
 
271.2
 
Price 3
USD/t
227.4
 
169.9
 
171.5
 
182.1
 
186.0
 
188.2
 
188.0
 
190.0
 
191.9
 
193.4
 
193.7
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
645.8
 
664.8
 
675.0
 
687.4
 
697.2
 
703.9
 
708.2
 
711.5
 
717.4
 
723.0
 
729.8
 
Consumption
Mt
580.9
 
605.9
 
608.7
 
612.4
 
620.8
 
626.9
 
629.7
 
635.6
 
639.3
 
642.9
 
646.0
 
Net trade
Mt
54.8
 
67.1
 
69.7
 
70.5
 
71.6
 
72.7
 
74.9
 
76.2
 
78.0
 
79.7
 
82.1
 
Closing stocks
Mt
81.3
 
97.0
 
93.6
 
98.0
 
102.8
 
107.1
 
110.7
 
110.3
 
110.4
 
110.7
 
112.4
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
609.5
 
611.4
 
622.2
 
636.5
 
648.0
 
661.8
 
673.4
 
685.0
 
697.3
 
708.0
 
719.6
 
Consumption
Mt
634.1
 
674.2
 
687.8
 
699.7
 
713.8
 
726.8
 
741.4
 
755.4
 
768.7
 
781.7
 
794.1
 
Net trade
Mt
-39.5
 
-59.4
 
-61.4
 
-61.9
 
-63.1
 
-64.0
 
-65.9
 
-66.8
 
-68.3
 
-69.7
 
-71.7
 
Closing stocks
Mt
139.0
 
154.1
 
152.3
 
153.7
 
153.7
 
155.4
 
156.5
 
156.3
 
157.1
 
157.2
 
158.8
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
585.3
 
600.4
 
608.5
 
618.7
 
626.6
 
632.1
 
635.4
 
637.8
 
642.9
 
647.5
 
653.3
 
Consumption
Mt
571.8
 
595.7
 
598.6
 
601.4
 
609.1
 
615.0
 
618.2
 
624.1
 
627.8
 
631.6
 
635.1
 
Net trade
Mt
3.5
 
12.4
 
13.3
 
13.0
 
12.6
 
12.8
 
13.9
 
14.2
 
14.9
 
15.7
 
16.6
 
Closing stocks
Mt
76.6
 
90.7
 
87.3
 
91.7
 
96.5
 
100.8
 
104.2
 
103.8
 
103.9
 
104.0
 
105.7
 
RICE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
494.0
 
506.3
 
509.2
 
516.3
 
523.3
 
530.3
 
538.2
 
545.8
 
552.2
 
558.0
 
564.1
 
Area
Mha
162.3
 
161.4
 
160.3
 
160.3
 
160.0
 
160.1
 
160.3
 
160.3
 
160.3
 
160.5
 
160.9
 
Yield
t/ha
3.04
 
3.14
 
3.18
 
3.22
 
3.27
 
3.31
 
3.36
 
3.41
 
3.45
 
3.48
 
3.51
 
Consumption
Mt
488.8
 
505.6
 
511.3
 
518.7
 
524.3
 
529.6
 
536.2
 
543.4
 
549.6
 
555.5
 
561.9
 
Feed use
Mt
17.6
 
18.7
 
19.4
 
19.8
 
20.4
 
20.7
 
21.1
 
21.6
 
22.0
 
22.6
 
23.1
 
Food use
Mt
409.5
 
420.3
 
424.7
 
431.4
 
436.3
 
441.1
 
446.7
 
452.7
 
457.9
 
462.6
 
467.5
 
Exports
Mt
40.1
 
42.8
 
42.5
 
43.5
 
44.4
 
45.5
 
46.7
 
48.4
 
49.7
 
51.0
 
52.2
 
Closing stocks
Mt
178.2
 
177.7
 
175.6
 
173.2
 
172.1
 
172.8
 
174.8
 
177.2
 
179.8
 
182.3
 
184.5
 
Price 4
USD/t
518.9
 
369.8
 
374.9
 
384.8
 
399.4
 
411.9
 
416.0
 
430.3
 
438.8
 
443.5
 
449.4
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
17.9
 
18.7
 
18.5
 
18.7
 
18.9
 
19.0
 
19.1
 
19.2
 
19.4
 
19.5
 
19.6
 
Consumption
Mt
18.7
 
19.1
 
19.0
 
19.2
 
19.3
 
19.4
 
19.5
 
19.5
 
19.6
 
19.7
 
19.8
 
Net trade
Mt
-0.8
 
-0.5
 
-0.5
 
-0.5
 
-0.5
 
-0.4
 
-0.4
 
-0.3
 
-0.3
 
-0.2
 
-0.2
 
Closing stocks
Mt
4.7
 
4.5
 
4.4
 
4.4
 
4.5
 
4.5
 
4.5
 
4.5
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
476.2
 
487.6
 
490.7
 
497.6
 
504.4
 
511.4
 
519.1
 
526.6
 
532.8
 
538.5
 
544.5
 
Consumption
Mt
470.1
 
486.5
 
492.3
 
499.5
 
505.0
 
510.3
 
516.7
 
523.8
 
530.0
 
535.8
 
542.1
 
Net trade
Mt
1.1
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
Closing stocks
Mt
173.6
 
173.3
 
171.1
 
168.7
 
167.7
 
168.4
 
170.3
 
172.7
 
175.2
 
177.7
 
180.0
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
21.4
 
22.2
 
22.0
 
22.3
 
22.3
 
22.4
 
22.5
 
22.6
 
22.8
 
22.9
 
23.0
 
Consumption
Mt
22.4
 
23.0
 
23.0
 
23.2
 
23.3
 
23.4
 
23.6
 
23.7
 
23.8
 
23.9
 
24.0
 
Net trade
Mt
-1.1
 
-0.9
 
-0.9
 
-0.9
 
-0.9
 
-1.0
 
-1.0
 
-1.0
 
-1.0
 
-1.0
 
-1.0
 
Closing stocks
Mt
6.5
 
6.4
 
6.3
 
6.3
 
6.3
 
6.2
 
6.3
 
6.2
 
6.2
 
6.2
 
6.2
 
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions.
Average 2012-14est: Data for 2014 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
No.2 hard red winter wheat, ordinary protein, United States f.o.b. Gulf Ports (June/May), less EEP payments where applicable.
2.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
3.
No.2 yellow corn, United States f.o.b. Gulf Ports (September/August).
4.
Milled 100%, grade b, nominal price quote, f.o.b. Bangkok (January/December).
Source: OECD/FAO (2015), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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