1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031 provides a consensus assessment of the ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity and fish markets at national, regional, and global levels, and serves as a reference for forward-looking policy analysis and planning. Projections suggest that, following a business-as-usual path, SDG 2 on Zero Hunger would not be achieved by 2030 and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture would continue to increase. To achieve the Zero Hunger target while reducing direct GHG by 6%, overall agricultural productivity would need to increase by 28% over the next decade. Comprehensive action to boost agricultural investment and innovation, and to enable technology transfer are urgently required in order to put the agricultural sector on the necessary sustainable growth trajectory. Additional efforts to reduce food loss and waste, and to limit excess calorie and protein intakes would also be necessary. This report is a collaborative effort between the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, prepared with inputs from Member countries and international commodity organisations. It highlights fundamental economic and social trends driving the global agri-food sector, assuming no major changes to weather conditions or policies.

More information can be found at www.agri-outlook.org.

English Also available in: French, Chinese, Spanish

From Chapter: Statistical Annex

Table C.17 - Main policy assumptions for cereal markets

English Also available in: French

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031 - © OECD 2022

‌C.17Main policy assumptions for cereal markets
C.17Main policy assumptions for cereal markets
  Marketing year
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2019-21est
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
‌2027‌
2028
‌2029‌
‌2030‌
‌2031‌
ARGENTINA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Crops export tax
%
12.0
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
Rice export tax
%
12.0
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
CANADA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tariff-quotas 1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat
kt
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
Barley
kt
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
EUROPEAN UNION 2,3
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Voluntary coupled support
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat 4
mln EUR
89.6
 
89.7
 
89.7
 
89.7
 
89.7
 
89.7
 
89.7
 
89.7
 
89.7
 
89.7
 
89.7
 
Rice 5
mln EUR
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
Cereal reference price 6
EUR/t
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
Direct payments ceilings 7
bln EUR
42.0
 
42.3
 
42.3
 
42.3
 
42.3
 
42.3
 
42.3
 
42.3
 
42.3
 
42.3
 
42.3
 
Rice reference price 8
EUR/t
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
Wheat tariff-quota 1
kt
4 164.5
 
3 447.2
 
3 447.2
 
3 447.2
 
3 447.2
 
3 447.2
 
3 447.2
 
3 447.2
 
3 447.2
 
3 447.2
 
3 447.2
 
Coarse grain tariff-quota 1
kt
4 451.4
 
4 434.1
 
4 435.1
 
4 436.1
 
4 437.1
 
4 438.1
 
4 439.1
 
4 440.1
 
4 441.1
 
4 442.1
 
4 442.1
 
JAPAN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat tariff-quota
kt
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
In-quota tariff
'000 JPY/t
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
'000 JPY/t
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
Barley tariff-quota
kt
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
In-quota tariff
'000 JPY/t
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
'000 JPY/t
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
Rice tariff-quota
kt
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
In-quota tariff
'000 JPY/t
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
'000 JPY/t
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
KOREA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat tariff
%
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
Maize tariff-quota
kt
9 893.3
 
11 280.0
 
11 280.0
 
11 280.0
 
11 280.0
 
11 280.0
 
11 280.0
 
11 280.0
 
11 280.0
 
11 280.0
 
11 280.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
328.0
 
328.0
 
328.0
 
328.0
 
328.0
 
328.0
 
328.0
 
328.0
 
328.0
 
328.0
 
328.0
 
Barley tariff-quota
kt
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
In-quota tariff
%
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
Rice quota 9
kt
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
In-quota tariff
%
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
513.0
 
513.0
 
513.0
 
513.0
 
513.0
 
513.0
 
513.0
 
513.0
 
513.0
 
513.0
 
513.0
 
MERCOSUR
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat tariff
%
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
Coarse grain tariff 10
%
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
Rice tariff
%
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
UNITED STATES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ARC participation rate
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat
%
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
Coarse grains
%
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
Wheat loan rate
USD/t
124.2
 
124.2
 
124.2
 
124.2
 
124.2
 
124.2
 
124.2
 
124.2
 
124.2
 
124.2
 
124.2
 
Maize loan rate
USD/t
86.6
 
86.6
 
86.6
 
86.6
 
86.6
 
86.6
 
86.6
 
86.6
 
86.6
 
86.6
 
86.6
 
CHINA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat tariff-quota
kt
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
In-quota tariff
%
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
Coarse grains tariff
%
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Maize tariff-quota
kt
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
In-quota tariff
%
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
Rice tariff-quota
kt
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
In-quota tariff
%
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
INDIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Minimum support price
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Rice
INR/t
21 042
 
19 206
 
20 006
 
20 736
 
21 426
 
22 102
 
22 799
 
23 481
 
24 148
 
24 800
 
25 437
 
Wheat
INR/t
18 299
 
22 624
 
22 057
 
22 282
 
22 703
 
23 294
 
23 940
 
24 624
 
25 293
 
25 948
 
26 605
 
Wheat tariff
%
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
Rice tariff
%
70.4
 
70.4
 
70.4
 
70.4
 
70.4
 
70.4
 
70.4
 
70.4
 
70.4
 
70.4
 
70.4
 
RUSSIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat export tax
%
11.0
 
29.5
 
20.7
 
16.2
 
15.5
 
15.3
 
16.2
 
16.7
 
17.2
 
17.8
 
18.3
 
Maize export tax
%
7.5
 
21.7
 
10.6
 
5.2
 
4.0
 
3.9
 
5.2
 
5.8
 
6.2
 
6.7
 
7.1
 
Other coarse grains export tax
%
9.6
 
29.4
 
20.0
 
15.3
 
14.0
 
13.5
 
14.7
 
15.4
 
16.1
 
16.7
 
17.2
 
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions. Average 2019-21est: Data for 2021 are estimated.The sources for tariffs and Tariff Rate Quotas are the national questionnaire reply, UNCTAD and WTO.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Year beginning 1 July.
2.
Since 2015 the Basic payment scheme (BPS) holds, which shall account for 68% maximum of the national direct payment envelopes. On top of this, compulsory policy instruments have been introduced: the Green Payment (30%) and young farmer scheme (2%).
3.
Refers to all current European Union member States (excludes the United Kingdom)
4.
Mainly for durum wheat. Implemented in 6 Member States.
5.
Implemented in 6 Member States.
6.
Buying-in at the fixed reference price is operable automatically only for common wheat up to a maximum quantity of 3 million tons per marketing year. Above that ceiling and for durum wheat, maize and barley intervention can take place only via tender.
7.
Estimated net amounts for all direct payments based on Annex II of EU Regulation No 1307/2013, accounting for the transfers between direct aids and rural development envelopes.
8.
Intervention is set at zero tonnes per marketing year. However, the Commission may initiate intervention if market requires.
9.
Milled rice basis.
10.
Applied by Brazil only.
Source: OECD/FAO (2022), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database).dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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