OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018
| A.17 | Main policy assumptions for cereal markets | ||||||||||||
| A.17 | Main policy assumptions for cereal markets | ||||||||||||
| Marketing year | |||||||||||||
| | | | Average 2015-17est | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| | ARGENTINA | ||||||||||||
| | Crops export tax | % | 21.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| | Rice export tax | % | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| | CANADA | ||||||||||||
| | Tariff-quotas 1 | ||||||||||||
| | Wheat | kt | 350.0 | 350.0 | 350.0 | 350.0 | 350.0 | 350.0 | 350.0 | 350.0 | 350.0 | 350.0 | 350.0 |
| | In-quota tariff | % | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| | Out-of-quota tariff | % | 61.7 | 61.7 | 61.7 | 61.7 | 61.7 | 61.7 | 61.7 | 61.7 | 61.7 | 61.7 | 61.7 |
| | Barley | kt | 399.0 | 399.0 | 399.0 | 399.0 | 399.0 | 399.0 | 399.0 | 399.0 | 399.0 | 399.0 | 399.0 |
| | In-quota tariff | % | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| | Out-of-quota tariff | % | 58.0 | 58.0 | 58.0 | 58.0 | 58.0 | 58.0 | 58.0 | 58.0 | 58.0 | 58.0 | 58.0 |
| | EUROPEAN UNION 2 | ||||||||||||
| | Voluntary coupled support | ||||||||||||
| | Wheat 3 | mln EUR | 88.9 | 90.0 | 89.3 | 89.7 | 89.7 | 89.7 | 89.7 | 89.7 | 89.7 | 89.7 | 89.7 |
| | Rice 4 | mln EUR | 56.4 | 55.9 | 55.7 | 55.6 | 55.6 | 55.6 | 55.6 | 55.6 | 55.6 | 55.6 | 55.6 |
| | Cereal reference price 5 | EUR/t | 101.3 | 101.3 | 101.3 | 101.3 | 101.3 | 101.3 | 101.3 | 101.3 | 101.3 | 101.3 | 101.3 |
| | Direct payments ceilings 6 | bln EUR | 41.5 | 41.6 | 41.6 | 42.2 | 42.3 | 42.3 | 42.3 | 42.3 | 42.3 | 42.3 | 42.3 |
| | Rice reference price 7 | EUR/t | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 |
| | Wheat tariff-quota 1 | kt | 4 452.4 | 4 513.2 | 4 523.2 | 4 523.2 | 4 523.2 | 4 523.2 | 4 523.2 | 4 523.2 | 4 523.2 | 4 523.2 | 4 523.2 |
| | Coarse grain tariff-quota 1 | kt | 72.8 | 78.3 | 69.0 | 66.4 | 61.5 | 53.1 | 49.4 | 44.6 | 39.9 | 35.3 | 29.6 |
| | JAPAN | ||||||||||||
| | Wheat tariff-quota | kt | 5 740.0 | 5 740.0 | 5 740.0 | 5 740.0 | 5 740.0 | 5 740.0 | 5 740.0 | 5 740.0 | 5 740.0 | 5 740.0 | 5 740.0 |
| | In-quota tariff | '000 JPY/t | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| | Out-of-quota tariff | '000 JPY/t | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 |
| | Barley tariff-quota | kt | 1 369.0 | 1 369.0 | 1 369.0 | 1 369.0 | 1 369.0 | 1 369.0 | 1 369.0 | 1 369.0 | 1 369.0 | 1 369.0 | 1 369.0 |
| | In-quota tariff | '000 JPY/t | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| | Out-of-quota tariff | '000 JPY/t | 39.0 | 39.0 | 39.0 | 39.0 | 39.0 | 39.0 | 39.0 | 39.0 | 39.0 | 39.0 | 39.0 |
| | Rice tariff-quota | kt | 682.2 | 682.2 | 682.2 | 682.2 | 682.2 | 682.2 | 682.2 | 682.2 | 682.2 | 682.2 | 682.2 |
| | In-quota tariff | '000 JPY/t | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| | Out-of-quota tariff | '000 JPY/t | 341.0 | 341.0 | 341.0 | 341.0 | 341.0 | 341.0 | 341.0 | 341.0 | 341.0 | 341.0 | 341.0 |
| | KOREA | ||||||||||||
| | Wheat tariff | % | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 |
| | Maize tariff-quota | kt | 6 102.0 | 6 102.0 | 6 102.0 | 6 102.0 | 6 102.0 | 6 102.0 | 6 102.0 | 6 102.0 | 6 102.0 | 6 102.0 | 6 102.0 |
| | In-quota tariff | % | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| | Out-of-quota tariff | % | 304.7 | 304.7 | 304.7 | 304.7 | 304.7 | 304.7 | 304.7 | 304.7 | 304.7 | 304.7 | 304.7 |
| | Barley tariff-quota | kt | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.6 |
| | In-quota tariff | % | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 |
| | Out-of-quota tariff | % | 271.4 | 271.4 | 271.4 | 271.4 | 271.4 | 271.4 | 271.4 | 271.4 | 271.4 | 271.4 | 271.4 |
| | Rice quota 8 | kt | 408.7 | 408.7 | 408.7 | 408.7 | 408.7 | 408.7 | 408.7 | 408.7 | 408.7 | 408.7 | 408.7 |
| | In-quota tariff | % | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| | MERCOSUR | ||||||||||||
| | Wheat tariff | % | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| | Coarse grain tariff 9 | % | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| | Rice tariff | % | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| | MEXICO | ||||||||||||
| | Barley import tariff | % | 20.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| | UNITED STATES | ||||||||||||
| | ARC participation rate | ||||||||||||
| | Wheat | % | 55.6 | 55.6 | 55.6 | 55.6 | 55.6 | 55.6 | 55.6 | 55.6 | 55.6 | 55.6 | 55.6 |
| | Coarse grains | % | 93.1 | 93.1 | 93.1 | 93.1 | 93.1 | 93.1 | 93.1 | 93.1 | 93.1 | 93.1 | 93.1 |
| | Wheat loan rate | USD/t | 108.0 | 108.0 | 108.0 | 108.0 | 108.0 | 108.0 | 108.0 | 108.0 | 108.0 | 108.0 | 108.0 |
| | Maize loan rate | USD/t | 76.8 | 76.8 | 76.8 | 76.8 | 76.8 | 76.8 | 76.8 | 76.8 | 76.8 | 76.8 | 76.8 |
| | CHINA | ||||||||||||
| | Wheat tariff-quota | kt | 9 636 | 9 636 | 9 636 | 9 636 | 9 636 | 9 636 | 9 636 | 9 636 | 9 636 | 9 636 | 9 636 |
| | In-quota tariff | % | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| | Out-of-quota tariff | % | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 |
| | Coarse grains tariff | % | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| | Maize tariff-quota | kt | 7 200 | 7 200 | 7 200 | 7 200 | 7 200 | 7 200 | 7 200 | 7 200 | 7 200 | 7 200 | 7 200 |
| | In-quota tariff | % | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| | Out-of-quota tariff | % | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 |
| | Rice tariff-quota | kt | 5 320 | 5 320 | 5 320 | 5 320 | 5 320 | 5 320 | 5 320 | 5 320 | 5 320 | 5 320 | 5 320 |
| | In-quota tariff | % | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| | Out-of-quota tariff | % | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 |
| | INDIA | ||||||||||||
| | Minimum support price | ||||||||||||
| | Rice | INR/t | 14 988 | 16 361 | 16 990 | 17 651 | 18 341 | 19 059 | 19 806 | 20 585 | 21 388 | 22 225 | 23 095 |
| | Wheat | INR/t | 15 714 | 17 375 | 18 059 | 18 582 | 19 103 | 19 650 | 20 209 | 20 828 | 21 411 | 22 031 | 22 673 |
| | Wheat tariff | % | 50.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 |
| | Rice tariff | % | 70.1 | 70.1 | 70.1 | 70.1 | 70.1 | 70.1 | 70.1 | 70.1 | 70.1 | 70.1 | 70.1 |
| | RUSSIA | ||||||||||||
| | Wheat ad valorem import tax | % | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| | Rice tariff equivalent of import barriers | % | 11.7 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| | Coarse grains tariff equivalent of import barriers | % | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| | Coarse grain specific tariff | RUB/t | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| | Coarse grain ad valorem import tax | % | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions. Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated. The sources for tariffs and Tariff Rate Quotas are the national questionnaire reply, UNCTAD and WTO. | |||||||||||||
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Year beginning 1 July. | |||||||||||||
Since 2015 the Basic payment scheme (BPS) holds, which shall account for 68% maximum of the national direct payment envelopes. On top of this, compulsory policy instruments have been introduced: the Green Payment (30%) and young farmer scheme (2%). | |||||||||||||
Mainly for durum wheat. Implemented in 6 Member States. | |||||||||||||
Implemented in 6 Member States. | |||||||||||||
Buying-in at the fixed reference price is operable automatically only for common wheat up to a maximum quantity of 3 million tons per marketing year. Above that ceiling and for durum wheat, maize and barley intervention can take place only via tender. | |||||||||||||
Estimated net amounts for all direct payments based on Annex II of EU Regulation No 1307/2013, accounting for the transfers between direct aids and rural development envelopes. | |||||||||||||
Intervention is set at zero tonnes per marketing year. However, the Commission may initiate intervention if market requires. | |||||||||||||
Milled rice basis. | |||||||||||||
Applied by Brazil only. | |||||||||||||
| Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en | |||||||||||||