OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 - © OECD 2021
C.2 | World oilseed projections | ||||||||||||
C.2 | World oilseed projections | ||||||||||||
Marketing year | |||||||||||||
| | | Average 2018-20est | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
| SOYBEAN | ||||||||||||
| World | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 356.1 | 372.9 | 377.3 | 382.6 | 386.7 | 391.0 | 394.8 | 399.1 | 402.9 | 407.5 | 411.1 |
| Area | Mha | 125.8 | 129.2 | 129.7 | 130.4 | 130.8 | 131.3 | 131.6 | 132.0 | 132.2 | 132.6 | 132.8 |
| Yield | t/ha | 2.83 | 2.89 | 2.91 | 2.93 | 2.96 | 2.98 | 3.00 | 3.02 | 3.05 | 3.07 | 3.09 |
| Consumption | Mt | 358.6 | 370.8 | 376.2 | 381.0 | 386.2 | 391.1 | 395.4 | 398.8 | 402.7 | 406.7 | 410.6 |
| Crush | Mt | 324.3 | 334.1 | 339.1 | 343.6 | 348.5 | 353.1 | 357.2 | 360.3 | 363.9 | 367.8 | 371.5 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 42.4 | 38.7 | 39.9 | 41.5 | 42.0 | 41.9 | 41.3 | 41.7 | 42.0 | 42.7 | 43.1 |
| Price 1 | USD/t | 413.1 | 459.1 | 454.6 | 452.0 | 455.0 | 458.8 | 468.7 | 474.7 | 484.2 | 487.1 | 494.2 |
| Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 129.6 | 135.3 | 136.6 | 138.0 | 139.3 | 140.8 | 141.9 | 143.2 | 144.4 | 145.9 | 147.2 |
| Consumption | Mt | 98.3 | 98.0 | 98.0 | 99.4 | 99.9 | 100.7 | 101.1 | 101.6 | 101.9 | 102.5 | 103.0 |
| Crush | Mt | 89.4 | 89.1 | 89.0 | 90.3 | 90.8 | 91.5 | 91.9 | 92.3 | 92.7 | 93.2 | 93.6 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 18.1 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 11.9 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 12.7 |
| Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 226.5 | 237.6 | 240.7 | 244.6 | 247.3 | 250.2 | 252.9 | 255.9 | 258.5 | 261.5 | 263.9 |
| Consumption | Mt | 260.3 | 272.7 | 278.2 | 281.6 | 286.2 | 290.4 | 294.3 | 297.2 | 300.7 | 304.2 | 307.7 |
| Crush | Mt | 234.9 | 245.0 | 250.2 | 253.3 | 257.7 | 261.7 | 265.3 | 268.0 | 271.3 | 274.6 | 277.9 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 24.3 | 30.3 | 30.1 | 30.3 | 30.1 | 29.8 | 29.2 | 29.5 | 29.6 | 30.1 | 30.4 |
| OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 120.2 | 126.5 | 127.6 | 128.9 | 130.0 | 131.3 | 132.3 | 133.5 | 134.5 | 135.8 | 136.9 |
| Consumption | Mt | 99.1 | 99.5 | 99.4 | 100.9 | 101.5 | 102.3 | 102.8 | 103.4 | 103.8 | 104.5 | 105.0 |
| Crush | Mt | 90.7 | 90.8 | 90.7 | 92.1 | 92.6 | 93.5 | 93.9 | 94.5 | 94.9 | 95.5 | 96.0 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 18.1 | 8.6 | 10.0 | 11.6 | 12.2 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.9 | 13.0 |
| OTHER OILSEEDS | ||||||||||||
| World | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 156.0 | 159.4 | 162.7 | 165.6 | 167.0 | 169.2 | 171.1 | 173.3 | 175.2 | 177.4 | 179.5 |
| Area | Mha | 88.9 | 90.6 | 91.3 | 91.9 | 92.0 | 92.4 | 92.6 | 92.9 | 93.1 | 93.4 | 93.7 |
| Yield | t/ha | 1.75 | 1.76 | 1.78 | 1.80 | 1.81 | 1.83 | 1.85 | 1.87 | 1.88 | 1.90 | 1.92 |
| Consumption | Mt | 157.5 | 159.6 | 162.2 | 165.2 | 166.8 | 169.0 | 171.1 | 173.3 | 175.2 | 177.4 | 179.5 |
| Crush | Mt | 136.3 | 138.4 | 140.8 | 143.6 | 145.1 | 147.2 | 149.1 | 151.1 | 152.9 | 154.9 | 156.8 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 10.0 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.2 |
| Price 3 | USD/t | 445.2 | 476.0 | 470.8 | 460.2 | 471.3 | 477.1 | 483.8 | 488.0 | 497.3 | 501.9 | 507.0 |
| Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 94.7 | 96.1 | 98.7 | 100.9 | 101.7 | 103.3 | 104.6 | 106.2 | 107.5 | 109.0 | 110.5 |
| Consumption | Mt | 88.8 | 88.9 | 90.5 | 92.4 | 93.2 | 94.5 | 95.7 | 97.0 | 98.1 | 99.3 | 100.5 |
| Crush | Mt | 81.5 | 81.7 | 83.3 | 85.1 | 85.8 | 87.1 | 88.3 | 89.4 | 90.5 | 91.7 | 92.8 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 7.7 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 |
| Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 61.3 | 63.3 | 64.0 | 64.8 | 65.3 | 65.9 | 66.5 | 67.1 | 67.7 | 68.4 | 69.0 |
| Consumption | Mt | 68.7 | 70.7 | 71.7 | 72.8 | 73.6 | 74.5 | 75.4 | 76.3 | 77.1 | 78.1 | 79.0 |
| Crush | Mt | 54.7 | 56.7 | 57.5 | 58.5 | 59.3 | 60.1 | 60.9 | 61.7 | 62.4 | 63.2 | 64.0 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 57.7 | 59.9 | 61.5 | 62.4 | 62.6 | 63.3 | 63.9 | 64.6 | 65.0 | 65.7 | 66.3 |
| Consumption | Mt | 58.2 | 58.8 | 59.5 | 60.5 | 60.8 | 61.4 | 62.0 | 62.6 | 63.0 | 63.6 | 64.1 |
| Crush | Mt | 52.7 | 53.2 | 53.9 | 54.9 | 55.1 | 55.7 | 56.3 | 56.9 | 57.3 | 57.8 | 58.3 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 6.4 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| PROTEIN MEALS | ||||||||||||
| World | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 353.7 | 363.4 | 368.8 | 374.3 | 379.4 | 384.6 | 389.3 | 393.2 | 397.4 | 401.9 | 406.3 |
| Consumption | Mt | 353.8 | 363.1 | 368.6 | 374.0 | 379.3 | 384.5 | 389.2 | 393.1 | 397.3 | 401.8 | 406.2 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 14.1 | 13.7 | 14.0 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 14.5 | 14.6 | 14.7 | 14.9 |
| Price 4 | USD/t | 354.4 | 391.0 | 390.2 | 385.4 | 384.1 | 389.9 | 397.4 | 404.3 | 411.7 | 416.4 | 422.2 |
| Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 114.8 | 115.0 | 115.8 | 117.8 | 118.6 | 119.8 | 120.7 | 121.7 | 122.5 | 123.6 | 124.5 |
| Consumption | Mt | 126.7 | 126.7 | 127.6 | 128.2 | 128.2 | 128.6 | 129.1 | 129.4 | 129.5 | 129.9 | 130.1 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 238.9 | 248.3 | 253.1 | 256.5 | 260.8 | 264.8 | 268.5 | 271.5 | 274.9 | 278.4 | 281.8 |
| Consumption | Mt | 227.0 | 236.3 | 240.9 | 245.8 | 251.1 | 255.9 | 260.1 | 263.7 | 267.8 | 271.9 | 276.1 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 11.8 | 11.4 | 11.7 | 12.0 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 12.5 | 12.6 |
| OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 104.7 | 105.2 | 105.7 | 107.4 | 108.1 | 109.2 | 110.0 | 110.8 | 111.5 | 112.3 | 113.1 |
| Consumption | Mt | 132.4 | 133.2 | 134.0 | 134.6 | 134.9 | 135.5 | 136.1 | 136.6 | 136.9 | 137.4 | 137.8 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| VEGETABLE OILS | ||||||||||||
| World | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 212.9 | 219.7 | 222.9 | 226.6 | 229.3 | 232.4 | 235.4 | 238.2 | 241.1 | 244.0 | 246.9 |
| of which palm oil | Mt | 76.3 | 80.1 | 81.2 | 82.4 | 83.4 | 84.5 | 85.6 | 86.7 | 87.7 | 88.9 | 90.0 |
| Consumption | Mt | 213.6 | 218.7 | 222.0 | 225.8 | 229.3 | 232.4 | 235.3 | 237.9 | 240.8 | 243.7 | 246.6 |
| Food | Mt | 142.0 | 145.6 | 147.2 | 150.3 | 153.2 | 155.7 | 158.2 | 160.8 | 163.4 | 166.0 | 168.8 |
| Biofuel | Mt | 31.9 | 32.5 | 33.3 | 33.5 | 33.8 | 34.0 | 33.9 | 33.6 | 33.5 | 33.6 | 33.4 |
| Exports | Mt | 87.2 | 88.1 | 89.1 | 90.5 | 91.5 | 92.4 | 93.2 | 94.0 | 95.0 | 95.9 | 96.9 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 19.0 | 19.4 | 20.3 | 21.1 | 21.1 | 21.1 | 21.3 | 21.6 | 21.9 | 22.3 | 22.6 |
| Price 5 | USD/t | 783.6 | 899.2 | 878.5 | 871.0 | 883.6 | 912.1 | 935.0 | 948.8 | 971.7 | 987.9 | 1 005.7 |
| Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 53.4 | 53.3 | 53.9 | 55.0 | 55.4 | 56.1 | 56.7 | 57.4 | 57.9 | 58.5 | 59.1 |
| Consumption | Mt | 57.6 | 58.1 | 58.3 | 58.5 | 58.7 | 58.8 | 58.6 | 58.2 | 58.2 | 58.2 | 58.2 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 159.5 | 166.4 | 169.0 | 171.5 | 173.9 | 176.3 | 178.7 | 180.9 | 183.2 | 185.5 | 187.8 |
| Consumption | Mt | 156.0 | 160.6 | 163.7 | 167.3 | 170.6 | 173.6 | 176.6 | 179.7 | 182.5 | 185.5 | 188.4 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 15.2 | 15.6 | 16.5 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.4 | 17.8 | 18.1 | 18.4 | 18.7 |
| OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 43.5 | 43.6 | 44.0 | 44.8 | 45.1 | 45.6 | 46.0 | 46.3 | 46.7 | 47.1 | 47.4 |
| Consumption | Mt | 58.6 | 59.4 | 59.6 | 59.8 | 60.1 | 60.3 | 60.1 | 59.7 | 59.7 | 59.7 | 59.7 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
Note: Average 2018-20est: Data for 2020 are estimated. Prices are in nominal terms. | |||||||||||||
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer | |||||||||||||
Soybean, U.S., CIF Rotterdam (October/September). | |||||||||||||
Excludes Iceland and Costa Rica but includes all EU member countries. | |||||||||||||
Rapeseed, Europe, CIF Hamburg (October/September). | |||||||||||||
Weighted average protein meal, European port (October/September). | |||||||||||||
Weighted average price of oilseed oils and palm oil, European port (October/September). | |||||||||||||
Source: OECD/FAO (2021), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database).dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en |