Editorial: Restoring growth
Inflation is easing, but growth is slowing. The tightening of monetary policy needed to tackle inflation is taking effect. Despite stronger-than-expected GDP growth in 2023, tightening financial conditions, weak trade and subdued confidence are taking a toll. Housing markets and bank-dependent economies, particularly in Europe, are feeling the impact.
The pace of growth is uneven. Emerging markets are generally faring better than advanced economies. Europe’s growth lags behind North America and major Asian economies. Inflation, while easing, remains a concern.
We are projecting a soft landing for advanced economies, but this is far from guaranteed. The relationship between inflation, activity and labour markets has changed, making the full impact of monetary policy tightening hard to judge. In the United States, the economy is demonstrating more strength than expected, and there is a risk that inflation proves to be persistent. In the euro area, the full impact of tighter monetary policy is still to appear and activity may be hit more strongly than we expect.
Many emerging markets have shown considerable resilience over the past year, but countries characterised by structural debt vulnerabilities have come under market scrutiny.
Global trade is weak. Not only cyclical, but also structural factors are causing a slowdown in the rate at which value chains are integrating across countries. Opportunities for growth, particularly from greater services trade, are being missed. We must revive global trade. Resilience in global value chains is best delivered by diversification, not by protectionism and inward-looking policies.
In many countries, fiscal pressures are mounting. Demographic changes, decarbonisation, and a combination of rising interest payments and slow growth mean countries face a challenging fiscal outlook. Governments need to take bold action to reduce such pressures and give a greater focus to growth in their policy making. That means reforming labour market and pensions policies, increasing competition, and using fiscal levers to increase human capital and productivity enhancing investment, including the investment needed to deliver the green transition.
In summary, the global economy is grappling with inflation, slowing growth, and mounting fiscal pressures. Policymakers must prioritise macroeconomic stability, structural reforms, smart fiscal policies and international cooperation to foster sustainable and inclusive growth.
