The Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India is a regular publication on regional economic growth and development in Emerging Asia – Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam, as well as China and India. It comprises three parts: a regional economic monitor, a thematic chapter addressing a major issue facing the region, and a series of country notes.
The 2024 edition discusses the region’s macroeconomic challenges such as external headwinds, impacts of El Niño and elevated levels of private debt. The thematic chapter focuses on strategies to cope with more frequent disasters. Emerging Asia is among the world’s most disaster-prone regions, and the threat of disasters, such as floods, storms, earthquakes and droughts, is increasing. The report explores how countries can reduce disaster risks and improve resilience by developing a comprehensive approach involving policy measures such as improving governance and institutional capacity, ensuring adequate budgets and broadening financing options, strengthening disaster-related education, improving land planning, investing in disaster-resilient infrastructure and disaster-related technology, improving health responses, and facilitating the role of the private sector.
Countries in Asia and the Pacific face a heightened risk of flooding as disasters increase worldwide due to climate change. Yet these countries often lack the infrastructure necessary to prepare for and respond to floods effectively. When flood protection measures exist, they generally rely only on grey, hard-engineered infrastructure, which has been increasingly challenged in recent years. Nature-based solutions (NbS) offer a new approach for flood management, with several co-benefits beyond the reduction of risks. This approach has gained recognition from policy makers in the region, but they are confronted with a number of challenges, including the lack of a clear, common definition and guidelines, as well as financing issues. The growing imperatives of climate adaptation call for complementary, innovative and forward-looking solutions, such as a combined approach incorporating both NbS and grey infrastructure.
What are the structural barriers to women's empowerment and inclusive development in Southeast Asia? Building on data from the fifth edition of the SIGI, the SIGI 2024 Regional Report for Southeast Asia: Time to Care provides new evidence-based analysis on the progress and setbacks in eliminating the root causes of gender inequality in 11 countries of the region. It underscores how multiple personal status laws perpetuate gender-based legal discrimination. The analysis also shows that social norms governing gender roles and responsibilities worsened between 2014 and 2022, particularly affecting women’s educational and economic rights.
The report explores a critical policy area for the region, the care economy. Stressing the gendered, informal, and unpaid dimensions of care, it draws on social, demographic, educational and economic evidence to forecast a growing demand for care services in Southeast Asian countries. The report advocates for the strategic development of formal care systems as a unique opportunity to accelerate women's economic empowerment, build inclusive societies and strengthen the region's resilience to external shocks – including those induced by climate change. To dismantle the barriers that prevent the emergence and expansion of such a formal care economy, it provides concrete recommendations to policy makers and other stakeholders.
Over 100 million workers in Southeast Asia have jobs that are directly or closely linked to the environment, making them vulnerable to climate change impacts. These same workers likely earn at least 20% lower than the national average and are largely in informal employment. The region’s necessary transition towards greener growth could affect them in several ways: some sectors will create jobs and others will lose jobs or disappear altogether. Understanding the effects of both climate change and green growth policies on jobs and people is thus essential for making the transition in Southeast Asia an inclusive one. The study explores these issues, with emphasis on the potential effects on labour of an energy transition in Indonesia, and of a transition in the region’s agricultural sector, illustrated by a simulated conversion from conventional to organic rice farming.
This report assesses the current state of connectivity in Southeast Asia and provides tailored recommendations for extending broadband access, focusing on five countries: Cambodia, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. The analysis builds upon the OECD Recommendation on Broadband Connectivity, which provides a reference for policy makers and regulatory authorities within and outside of the OECD. Using the principles of the Recommendation as a roadmap, countries may be better able to unleash the full potential of connectivity for the digital transformation and to ensure equal access to connectivity for all users.
Subnational governments in Asia and the Pacific are key providers of the public services and infrastructure required to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Given this role, it is essential that policymakers and development partners understand and support the effective functioning of multi-level governance structures and subnational government finances across the region.
This joint OECD-ADB report provides a comprehensive overview of subnational governments across Asia and the Pacific. It covers over 467,000 subnational governments from 26 countries, which represent 53% of the world’s population and 40% of global GDP. On average in 2020, subnational governments in the region accounted for 29% of total public expenditure (8.8% of GDP), 35% of total public revenue (8.5% of GDP) and 38% of public investment (2% of GDP).
Harnessing unique data from the 3rd edition of the OECD-UCLG World Observatory on Subnational Government Finance and Investment, the analysis highlights how decentralisation and territorial reforms have reconfigured the structures and finances of subnational governments in the region. It covers a range of topics including fiscal rules, financial management capacity, priority-based budgeting, asset management and the use of public-private partnerships.
The Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India is a regular publication on regional economic growth and development in Emerging Asia. It focuses on the economic conditions of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. It also addresses relevant economic issues in China and India to fully reflect developments in the region. This Update presents the region’s economic outlook, depicting rapidly changing trends and macroeconomic challenges amidst external headwinds.
Viet Nam has been quick to recover from the downturns caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, but it faces long-term economic challenges. Boosting labour productivity will be crucial to sustained high economic growth. Attracting further foreign investment and reaping the benefit of advanced technologies will require additional improvements to the business environment through simplifying administrative procedures. Levelling the playing field of competition between state-owned enterprises and private enterprises will also help to maintain Viet Nam’s attraction for international investors. The country is already among the leaders of digitalisation in Southeast Asia, with strong adoption of e-commerce, telemedicine and telework. Further investment in digital skills will be key to maintain this momentum. The authorities have committed to net zero carbon emissions by 2050 and are expanding renewable energy generation capacity. A comprehensive decarbonisation plan would facilitate the transition to greener growth.
Le Viet Nam a réalisé des progrès économiques remarquables ces dernières décennies, en maintenant une croissance économique élevée. L'économie s'est également montrée résistante aux chocs, notamment à la pandémie de COVID-19. Les réformes approfondies et continues menées depuis la fin des années 1980 ont été la clé de cette réussite économique. Néanmoins, face aux défis importants qui l'attendent, le Viet Nam doit redoubler d'efforts pour faire avancer les réformes structurelles qui consolideront encore les forces du marché. La population vieillit rapidement et l'augmentation de la productivité est une priorité urgente. Cela nécessitera de nouvelles réformes pour réduire la participation de l'État, en particulier dans les secteurs de réseau tels que les télécommunications, et pour garantir des conditions de concurrence équitables entre toutes les entreprises. Il est également essentiel d'approfondir l'intégration commerciale pour renforcer les chaînes d'approvisionnement dans un paysage économique mondial en pleine mutation. Malgré l'augmentation récente de l'utilisation du numérique, le Viet Nam doit améliorer les compétences des travailleurs en renforçant la formation professionnelle et l'éducation des adultes. L'engagement de parvenir à des émissions nettes nulles d'ici 2050 nécessite des changements radicaux dans le système économique. Pour réduire la dépendance à l'égard des combustibles fossiles, il convient d'arrêter les nouveaux investissements dans le charbon et d'accélérer la mise en œuvre d'un marché du carbone. Comme ces réformes nécessiteront des ressources fiscales supplémentaires, l'assiette fiscale devrait être élargie afin d'augmenter les recettes publiques.
CHAPITRES THÉMATIQUES : RÉGLEMENTATION DES MARCHÉS DE PRODUITS ; NUMÉRISATION ; CROISSANCE VERTE
Viet Nam has implemented extensive reforms since the late 1980s, becoming one of the most open markets in Southeast Asia. Still, sustaining high economic growth in the coming decade will require additional efforts to boost labour productivity. To advance reforms, the government will need to take bold action to reduce state involvement and secure a level playing field among all market participants, including state-owned enterprises. Viet Nam’s recent rapid digitalisation driven by the private sector proves that competition is crucial to absorb and disseminate the latest technologies. The commitment to net zero emissions by 2050 creates challenges but also opportunities to stimulate innovation and pursue greener growth. Against this background, this chapter discusses how Viet Nam can make further progress in terms of levelling the playing field for businesses, providing an enabling environment for the digital transformation and moving towards a low carbon economy.
This Survey is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD.
Trong hơn ba thập niên, Việt Nam đã đạt được những tiến bộ kinh tế nổi bật. Việc tham gia tích cực vào các chuỗi giá trị toàn cầu đã mang lại sự thịnh vượng về kinh tế, nhưng cũng khiến Việt Nam dễ chịu tác động của các điều kiện bên ngoài, vốn đã trở nên bất ổn hơn so với trước đây. Trong khi đầu tư nước ngoài dẫn dắt sản xuất định hướng xuất khẩu, một số lượng lớn các doanh nghiệp nhỏ đóng vai trò quan trọng trong các hoạt động kinh tế ở trong nước. Khó khăn về kinh tế thường ảnh hưởng nặng nề nhất tới các doanh nghiệp nhỏ và hộ gia đình nghèo hơn. Hơn nữa, hệ thống an sinh xã hội vẫn chưa bao phủ một số lượng lớn người dân, bất chấp việc già hóa dân số đang diễn ra nhanh chóng. Chương này thảo luận những tác động kinh tế vĩ mô và xã hội của các cuộc khủng hoảng gần đây, đặc biệt là đại dịch COVID-19 và xung đột Nga - U-crai-na, cũng như các hàm ý chính sách của chúng đối với việc đạt được tiến bộ mạnh mẽ và bao trùm trong trung hạn, gồm cả tầm quan trọng của việc hội nhập thương mại sâu sắc hơn đối với Việt Nam.
Việt Nam đã nhanh chóng hồi phục sau những đợt suy thoái do đại dịch gây ra, nhờ phản ứng chính sách nhanh nhạy. Đại dịch COVID-19 đã làm gián đoạn ba thập kỷ tăng trưởng kinh tế cao liên tục. Tuy nhiên, các biện pháp kiểm dịch nhanh và được điều chỉnh phù hợp giúp Việt Nam không phảitrải qua các đợt bùng phát quy mô lớn cho tới tận giữa năm 2021. Từ sau đó, chiến dịch tiêm chủng diễn ra nhanh chóng. Tăng trưởng kinh tế cao hơn so với hầu hết các nền kinh tế khác ở Đông Nam Á trong đại dịch, tạo cơ sở vững chắc cho tiến bộ kinh tế hơn nữa. Việt Nam là nền kinh tế thị trường định hướng xã hội chủ nghĩa. Chiến lược Phát triển kinh tế - xã hội 2021-2030 cam kết tiếp tục thúc đẩy cải cách kinh tế sâu rộng để phấn đấu trở thành nước có thu nhập trung bình cao.
For more than three decades, Viet Nam has made remarkable economic progress. Active participation in global value chains has brought economic prosperity, but it also makes Viet Nam susceptible to external conditions, which have recently become more uncertain than before. While foreign investment has taken the lead of export-oriented manufacturing, a large number of small businesses play an important role in domestic economic activities. Economic hardship often hits small businesses and poorer households most severely. Moreover, a vast number of people are not yet covered by social security despite the acceleration of population ageing. This chapter discusses the macroeconomic and social impacts of the recent crises, notably the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and their policy implications for achieving robust and inclusive progress in the medium term, including the importance of further trade integration for Viet Nam.
Viet Nam has been quick to recover from the downturns caused by the pandemic, owing to an agile policy response. The COVID-19 pandemic interrupted three decades of sustained high economic growth. Nevertheless, swift and tailored sanitary measures meant Viet Nam did not experience large-scale outbreaks until mid-2021. Thereafter, the vaccination campaign was fast. Economic growth outperformed most other Southeast Asian economies through the pandemic, providing a solid basis for further economic progress. Viet Nam is a socialist-oriented market economy. The Socio-Economic Development Strategy 2021-2030 pledges to continue bold economic reforms to attain upper middle-income country status.
Việt Nam đã thực hiện những cải cách sâu rộng từ cuối thập niên 1980, trở thành một trong những thị trường mở nhất ở Đông Nam Á. Tuy nhiên, việc duy trì tăng trưởng kinh tế cao trong thập niên tới đây sẽ đòi hỏi nhiều nỗ lực hơn nữa để tăng năng suất lao động. Để thúc đẩy cải cách, chính phủ sẽ cần hành động mạnh mẽ nhằm giảm sự can dự của nhà nước và bảo đảm sân chơi bình đẳng cho tất cả các bên tham gia thị trường, gồm cả các doanh nghiệp nhà nước. Quá trình số hóa nhanh chóng gần đây của Việt Nam do khu vực tư nhân thúc đẩy đã chứng tỏ rằng cạnh tranh là rất quan trọng để tiếp thu và phổ biến các công nghệ mới nhất. Cam kết phát thải ròng bằng không vào năm 2050 tạo ra những thách thức và cả cơ hội để kích thích đổi mới sáng tạo và theo đuổi tăng trưởng xanh hơn. Trong bối cảnh đó, chương này sẽ thảo luận về cách Việt Nam có thể đạt được tiến bộ hơn nữa trong việc tạo ra sân chơi bình đẳng cho các doanh nghiệp, mang đến một môi trường thuận lợi cho công cuộc chuyển đổi số, và hướng tới một nền kinh tế các-bon thấp.
Viet Nam has made remarkable economic progress over the past decades, sustaining high economic growth. The economy has also proven resilient to shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic. Extensive and continued reforms since the late 1980s have been key to this economic success. Nevertheless, with significant challenges ahead, Viet Nam needs to make additional efforts to advance structural reforms that will further strengthen market forces. The population is rapidly ageing and boosting productivity is an urgent priority. This will require further reforms to reduce state involvement, especially in network sectors such as telecommunications, and ensure a level playing field among all firms. Further deepening trade integration is also crucial to strengthen supply chains amid the changing global economic landscape. Despite recent increases in digital uptake, Viet Nam needs to upgrade worker skills by improving vocational training and adult learning. The pledge to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 requires dramatic changes in the economic system. To reduce dependence on fossil fuels, new investment in coal should be halted and the implementation of a carbon market accelerated. As these reforms will require additional fiscal resources, the tax base should be expanded to enhance government revenues.
SPECIAL FEATURES: PRODUCT MARKET REGULATION; DIGITALISATION; GREEN GROWTH