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This paper uses household level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) over the period 1991 to 2008 to analyse the driving factors of movements in the German household savings rate. Specifically, it analyses the impact of the precautionary savings motive and the impact of the 2002 private pension reform (the so-called Riester reform) on households’ savings rate as these factors are among the most discussed in the German context. There is evidence for both factors at work: First, households with a more volatile income stream tend to save more and the extent to which they do depends on their (subjectively assessed) risk aversion. Second, the introduction of the Riester pension scheme in 2002 was associated with a general increase in the household savings rate, both for households that signed up for private pension contracts and for those that did not. This effect is not found for low-income households, thus confirming the findings of other studies.
This study complements OECD analyses on commodity price volatility by providing quantitative assessments of the impact of two structural changes that a number of market observers have identified as contributing to world wheat market price volatility. The factors examined relate to changes in demand in the large emerging countries of the BRICs (comprising Brazil, the Russian Federation, India and China), as a result of continuing economic growth and development and the effect of a lower levels of global wheat stocks in recent years. A further scenario extends the analysis of the role of stocks in price volatility by examining some effects of a hypothetical international buffer stockholding scheme to stabilise international wheat prices. Each scenario was undertaken with the Aglink-Cosimo model and the stochastic baseline as reported in the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, 2011-2020. The results suggest that both factors have contributed to the recorded volatility in world wheat markets in recent years. However the increase in market volatility arising from economic development and income growth is likely to occur gradually, while the moderating effect of larger stocks may only be fleeting. The stylised wheat buffer stock scheme with a price band may lead to slightly lower market volatility under highly specific conditions and constraining assumptions. These, however, have proven difficult to achieve and sustain in practice, as observed from past attempts to implement such schemes.
This document brings together views from business, civil society and the Internet technical community on the emergence of a new generation of national cybersecurity strategies. This input was used in developing the report on “Cybersecurity Policy Making at a Turning Point: Analysing a New Generation of National Cybersecurity Strategies for the Internet Economy” (OECD Digital Economy Paper 211).
This paper provides an overview of the history of the OECD Guidelines for the Security of Information Systems and Networks: Towards a Culture of Security (“Security Guidelines”) since the adoption of their first version in 1992. It explains that the 2002 revision of the Guidelines introduced a fundamental paradigm shift in the way IT security was previously addressed, in order to take into account the emergence of the open Internet and the generalisation of interconnectivity.
These Terms of Reference set the context, objectives, scope and modalities for the second review of the 2002 Guidelines for the Security of Information Systems and Networks: Towards a Culture of Security.
This paper presents comparative data on innovation in selected climate change mitigation and adaptation technologies in the context of Africa. Such analysis informs policy aimed at encouraging international technology transfer and development of domestic innovation capacities. We present detailed analysis of the role of Africa in development of these technologies (invention), and then move on to examine Africa as a technology market (as reflected in patenting). In addition, we briefly touch upon the question of cross-border technology development (co-invention) in Africa. Despite Africa’s generally low volume of inventive activity in these fields in comparison with other countries, inventive activity is disproportionately directed towards mitigation and adaptation technologies. In addition, the rate of international co-invention for most mitigation and adaptation technologies is much higher in Africa than in the rest of the world. And finally, rates of protection of climate technologies at African intellectual property offices are high relative to other technologies. Nonetheless, it must be emphasized that a relatively small number of inventions are protected in Africa, providing evidence that IP is not a barrier to technology transfer and diffusion.
This report analyses the latest generation of “national cybersecurity strategies” in ten OECD countries and identifies commonalities and differences. The analysis reveals that cybersecurity policy making has become a national policy priority and relies on holistic strategies supported by stronger leadership which aims to drive economic and social prosperity and protect cyberspace-reliant societies against cyber-threats.
Unconditional and conditional quantile regressions are used to explore the determinants of labour earnings at different parts of the distribution and, hence, the determinants of overall labour earnings inequality. The analysis combines several household surveys to provide comparable estimates for 32 countries. The empirical work suggests that, in general, a rise in the share of workers with an uppersecondary or post-secondary non-tertiary degree and a rise in the share of workers on permanent contracts are associated with a narrowing of the earnings distribution. By contrast, a shift in the sector composition of the economy is not found to have a large impact on overall earnings inequality. As for tertiary education, the impact remains ambiguous as there are several offsetting forces.
The global economic and financial crisis exacerbated the need for fiscal consolidation in many OECD countries. Drawing lessons from past episodes of fiscal consolidation, this study investigates the economic environments, political settings and policy measures conducive to fiscal consolidation and debt stabilisation using probit, duration, truncated regression and bivariate Heckman selection methods. The empirical analysis builds on the earlier literature and extends it to include new aspects that may be of importance for consolidating governments. The empirical analysis confirms previous findings that the presence of fiscal rules – expenditure or budget balance rules – is associated with a greater probability of stabilising debt. Crucial in determining the causal link behind the association, the results also reveal an independent role for such rules over and above the impact of preferences for fiscal prudence. Also, while the analysis confirms that spending-driven adjustments visà- vis revenue-driven ones are more likely to stabilise debt, it also reveals that large consolidations need multiple instruments for consolidation to succeed. Sub-national governments, in particular state-level governments can contribute to the success of central government consolidation, if they co-operate. To ensure that state-level governments do co-operate, having the right regulatory framework with the extension of fiscal rules to sub-central government levels is important.
Le présent rapport est consacré au financement des projets d’investissement dans les infrastructures (de transport). Ses auteurs examinent de près les défaillances du marché en raison desquelles le secteur privé ne parvient pas à combler à lui seul l’intégralité des besoins en investissement. Ils évaluent ensuite les défaillances de l’État en lien avec ses interventions, et étudient de quelle manière les partenariats public-privé (PPP) peuvent remédier à ces défaillances. Ils étudient par la suite les limites des PPP et présentent le modèle de la base d’actifs régulés (BAR) en tant que solution de financement envisageable, ainsi que ses avantages et ses inconvénients.
The Australian state government of Queensland developed a set of Skills Formation Strategies as a new way to respond to skill shortages and mismatches. First piloted in 2002, the model was critical of traditional supply-side approaches to meeting industry needs for skilled labour, and stakeholders agreed that increasing skills supply without paying attention to good workforce management practices, skill utilisation and employee engagement would not resolve skill mismatches or shortages. Over 60 strategies have since been established as sector or area-based approaches, and have looked at issues as diverse as job re-design, linking into supply chains, and evaluation methods. This new form of industry engagement has been characterised by strong industry-led involvement, multi-stakeholder coordination, and flexible provision. The strategies’ successful outcomes have dispelled the myth that increasing training supply alone can resolve skills shortages, and as a result Queensland’s training organisations and local government have become better positioned to respond to industry needs.
Les pouvoirs publics semblent de plus en plus enclins à recourir à des mesures restreignant les exportations de matières premières et appliquées tant aux frontières que sur le territoire national. L’OCDE a donc entrepris d’élaborer un Inventaire des mesures de restriction imposées depuis 2009 aux matières premières industrielles. L’étude réalisée à cette fin porte sur une centaine de pays, une quinzaine de types de mesures et la plupart des minerais et métaux ainsi que le bois. Le présent document analyse les données collectées à ce jour pour la période 2009-2010 pour le secteur des minerais et métaux. Il commence par des observations sur la transparence de l’action publique, fondées sur les recherches réalisées dans le cadre de l’Inventaire. Quelles informations sur l’application de mesures à l’exportation les pouvoirs publics publient-ils sur leurs sites web ? Le document propose ensuite une analyse statistique descriptive des données de l’Inventaire. Quelles sont les mesures les plus utilisées ? Quels minerais et métaux ciblent-elle le plus ? Quelles sont les raisons qui poussent les pouvoirs publics à appliquer droits à l’exportation et autres mesures ? L’analyse tient compte des différents stades de production et s’appuie sur des données relative aux échanges pour illustrer les phénomènes de concentration de la production et les conséquences des restrictions à l’exportation sur les échanges.
Achieving low-carbon, climate-resilient (LCR) development is a policy goal of many governments today, and investment in built-infrastructure – in the energy, transport, water and building sectors – is a central part of the challenge. In the face of growing infrastructure needs and fiscal constraints, such transformational change will require large-scale private sector engagement. However, there is little policy experience on how to integrate climate and other environmental policy goals into investment policy frameworks and infrastructure planning. While many studies focus on the role of environmental and climate change policies to support a transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient (LCR) economy, this paper suggests that other factors play a critical role to achieve this transition. It starts from the premise that climate change policies and their effectiveness cannot be studied in isolation, but need to be considered in a broader national policy context, one that has the enabling environment for investment and development at its centre. This report aims to advise governments on how to create and improve domestic enabling conditions to shift and scale-up private sector investments in green infrastructure, to finance a transition to a LCR economy and greener growth. This report advances a “green investment policy framework” taking infrastructure investment as a starting point and looking only at climate change mitigation and adaptation. It highlights the significant opportunities and many challenges that exist today in both developed and developing countries to transition to LCR development through investment in both renovated and in new infrastructure. The report suggests it is possible to generate multiple local development benefits from LCR infrastructure investment. It presents a five-point policy framework to guide domestic reforms that can steer use of limited public funds while also enabling and incentivising private investment to support a transition across relevant infrastructure sectors to simultaneously deliver climate change and local development goals.
This report presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is compared with variant scenarios assuming deeper policy reforms. One main finding is that growth of the non-OECD G20 countries will continue to outpace OECD countries, but the difference will narrow substantially over coming decades. In parallel, the next 50 years will see major changes in the composition of the world economy. In the absence of ambitious policy changes, global imbalances will emerge which could undermine growth. However, ambitious fiscal consolidation efforts and deep structural reforms can both raise long-run living standards and reduce the risks of major disruptions to growth by mitigating global imbalances.
Cette étude présente les résultats d’un nouveau modèle de prévision de la croissance économique des pays de l’OCDE et des principaux pays hors OCDE sur un horizon de 50 ans, ainsi que des déséquilibres globaux. Un scénario de référence tablant sur des réformes structurelles progressives et un assainissement budgétaire suffisant pour stabiliser les ratios dette publique/PIB est comparé à d'autres scénarios comprenant des réformes plus profondes des politiques publiques. Une des conclusions principales de cet exercice est que la croissance des pays du G20 non membres de l’OCDE continuera de dépasser celle des pays membres, mais que la différence s’amenuisera au cours des prochaines décennies. Parallèlement, les 50 prochaines années verront des changements majeurs dans la composition de l’économie mondiale. Faute de réforme ambitieuse des politiques publiques, des déséquilibres globaux dangereux pour la croissance apparaîtront. Cependant, un assainissement plus poussé des finances publiques et des réformes structurelles énergiques pourraient à la fois relever les niveaux de vie et réduire les risques de déraillement majeur de la croissance en réduisant les déséquilibres globaux.
This review aims to improve our understanding of the implications of the insights from behavioural economics for environmental policy design. The review focuses on the question of incentive design in two broad areas — risk, conflict and cooperation; and mechanism design. A number of lessons for policy design emerge from the literature and are highlighted in the paper.
This report examines the professionalisation of the civil service in seven Western Balkan states: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia1, Kosovo, Montenegro and Serbia. In the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the civil service is analysed separately for the state level (henceforth BiH), the Federation level (FBiH) and the Republika Srpska (henceforth RS).
The report builds on SIGMA Paper No. 44 (2009), which assessed the sustainability of civil service reforms in the new EU member states of Central and Eastern Europe after their accession to the European Union (henceforth EU) in 2004. SIGMA Paper No. 44 found that Central and Eastern European states had made significant progress towards the establishment of professional and impartial civil service systems before joining the EU. Yet after accession only a minority of countries, namely the Baltic States, continued to invest in the professionalisation of the civil service.
Accordingly, the paper examines, first, the degree to which civil service systems ‘fit’ the European principles of administration and, second, the drivers of civil service professionalisation, in order to gain insights with regard to the sustainability of reforms in the Western Balkans.
- Les élèves issus de l’immigration doivent souvent surmonter de nombreux obstacles à la fois pour réussir à l’école.
- Dans la plupart des pays de l’OCDE, la moindre performance des élèves issus de l’immigration par rapport aux autres élèves est fortement liée au profil socio-économique défavorisé de leur établissement d’enseignement, caractérisé par la concentration d’élèves dont la mère est peu instruite.
- La concentration, dans un établissement d’enseignement, d’élèves issus de l’immigration ou d’élèves qui ne parlent pas la langue d’instruction à la maison ne présente pas une corrélation aussi forte avec une moindre performance scolaire.
Carbon market mechanisms such as emissions trading systems and crediting mechanisms can have multiple objectives. A key goal is to lower the cost of achieving greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions. Market mechanisms can also catalyse investment in low carbon technologies and practices, provide local environmental and health benefits, contribute to fostering innovation, provide a source of government revenue and facilitate more ambitious mitigation action in future. They can therefore play an important role in the diverse policy toolkit needed to address the global issue of climate change. This paper identifies the key design elements of market mechanisms and examines the governance structures and decision-making processes used to create tradable GHG units in existing systems both inside and outside of the UNFCCC. The analysis explores the potential involvement of international, national and sub-national regulatory bodies in the governance and decision-making processes and the possible role that internationally-agreed standards could play in providing confidence in the quality of GHG units.