OECD Economic Policy Papers

ISSN :
2226-583X (online)
DOI :
10.1787/2226583x
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The OECD Economic Policy Papers series is designed to make available selected studies on structural and macro-economic policy issues of current interest. The Papers are produced in the context of the work carried out on the two regular OECD titles, OECD Economic Outlook and Going for Growth.
 

Looking to 2060: Long-Term Global Growth Prospects

A Going for Growth Report You or your institution have access to this content

Authors:
Åsa Johansson, Yvan Guillemette1, Fabrice Murtin1, David Turner, Giuseppe Nicoletti, Christine de la Maisonneuve, Guillaume Bousquet1, Francesca Spinelli1
Author Affiliations
  • 1: OECD, France

Publication Date
09 Nov 2012
Bibliographic information
No.:
3
Pages
31
DOI
10.1787/5k8zxpjsggf0-en

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This report presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is compared with variant scenarios assuming deeper policy reforms. One main finding is that growth of the non-OECD G20 countries will continue to outpace OECD countries, but the difference will narrow substantially over coming decades. In parallel, the next 50 years will see major changes in the composition of the world economy. In the absence of ambitious policy changes, global imbalances will emerge which could undermine growth. However, ambitious fiscal consolidation efforts and deep structural reforms can both raise long-run living standards and reduce the risks of major disruptions to growth by mitigating global imbalances.
Also available in: French
Keywords:
productivity, saving, human capital, global imbalances, current accounts, fiscal and structural policy, long-term projections, growth, conditional convergence
JEL Classification:
  • E27: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment / Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
  • F43: International Economics / Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance / Economic Growth of Open Economies
  • H68: Public Economics / National Budget, Deficit, and Debt / Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
  • I25: Health, Education, and Welfare / Education and Research Institutions / Education and Economic Development
  • J11: Labor and Demographic Economics / Demographic Economics / Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
  • O11: Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth / Economic Development / Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
  • O43: Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth / Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity / Institutions and Growth
  • O47: Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth / Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity / Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence