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In this article we develop a simple and stylised analytical framework, which is both tractable and feasible to estimate, capturing several key dimensions of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. We use it to examine if and how a combination of fiscal consolidation, structural reform and financial backstops can help countries, notably the southern euro-area countries, to escape from the debt trap. Our analysis confirms that the loss of fiscal policy space in countries trapped in bad dynamics inevitably requires that fiscal action be directed towards consolidation despite some output loss in the short run. In particular, reducing debt levels breeds stronger growth and results in lower sovereign risk premia. We identify also a very important role for structural reform to help countries escape from bad dynamics. Last but not least, we find that financial backstops are helpful, but only to “buy time”. This additional time must be used productively, for fiscal consolidation and structural reforms to bear fruit as well as to make progress with institutional reforms of the European monetary union.
This study uses an econometric approach to estimate the contribution of three types of ICT investments (computer, software and communication) in 26 industries (the whole business sector) in 18 OECD countries over 1995-2007, based on the EU KLEMS Database. The estimated contribution of ICT investments to value added growth in the business sector varies from 1.0% a year in Australia to 0.4% a year in Japan. In one-third of the countries considered, the contribution of ICT investment was bigger or equal to the contribution of non-ICT investments. In most countries, computing equipment provided the largest contribution and accounted for over 50% of the overall ICT contribution. The only exceptions are Finland, where investments in communication equipment exceeded those in computing equipment, and Japan, where software was the most dynamic component of ICT investments. ICT producing industries account for no less than two-thirds of total factor productivity (TFP) growth in Germany, Slovenia and the United Kingdom, about 60% in the United States and just below 50% in France and the Netherlands. In Denmark, the Czech Republic and Italy, TFP increased in the ICT producing industries whereas it decreased for the total business sector.
JEL classification: O47, E23, E22.
Keywords: Growth accounting, ICT, GMM, EU KLEMS.
Does this levelling-off of traffic suggest that the saturation point is near (with a decoupling of traffic and income trends in the most densely populated areas or above a certain standard of living) or, rather, a cancelling out of opposite trends (continued growth in rural and suburban areas and decline amongst residents of the most densely populated areas)? Is this a structural phenomenon (population ageing, etc.) or a cyclical one linked to rising and volatile fuel prices and the recession? We shall explore these issues in the light of data collected in France, supplemented by selected data from other developed countries, and then move on to a comparison with a number of Mexican cities in order to consider the extent to which, and in what timeframe, these trends could spread southward to the emerging economies.
Ce plafonnement de la circulation traduit-il l'approche de la saturation (découplage entre évolutions des trafics et des revenus dans les régions les plus denses ou au-delà d'un certain niveau de vie?) ou plutôt la superposition d'évolutions contraires (poursuite de la croissance chez les ruraux et péri-urbains vs. recul chez les habitants des zones les plus denses) ? S'agit-il d'un phénomène structurel (vieillissement de la population...) ou conjoncturel lié à l'augmentation et à la volatilité du prix des carburants, à la récession ? Nous examinerons ces questions à la lumière de données collectées en France, complétées par quelques données de pays développés pour ensuite les comparer à quelques villes mexicaines, afin d'envisager dans quelle mesure et à quel horizon ces tendances pourraient s'étendre dans les pays du Sud.