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This paper reports on the construction of an Input-Output table for the economy of Morocco. The table is calibrated to the year 1990 and details the interactions between 133 primary, manufacturing, and service sectors, relying on a combination of a more aggregate table estimated by the Moroccan government and detailed data from official sources. This table will form the core of a detailed social accounting matrix (SAM) currently under construction as part of the same work programme. Ultimately, the SAM will be incorporated into a general equilibrium model, to be used cooperatively by the Development Centre, the Moroccan government, and the World Bank for trade and resource policy analysis. This report describes in detail the construction of the Input-Output table, presents the table in its entirety, and provides some preliminary multiplier estimates elucidating the links between Moroccan agriculture and the rest of the economy ...
Based on recent surveys of institutional experience and on a new analysis of the impact of league tables on English higher education, this paper argues that if, as seems likely, rankings are here to stay, the shortcomings of the present approach must be acknowledged and addressed.
By Peter W.A. West, University of Strathclyde, United Kingdom
Face à l’internationalisation du secteur éducatif, désormais hautement concurrentiel, les universités exploitent au maximum leur place dans les classements internationaux en vue d’accroître leur prestige. Mais cette stratégie ne revient-elle pas à conclure un pacte avec le diable, dont les coûts à long terme sont en réalité bien supérieurs aux avantages immédiats ? L’université qui choisit d’asseoir sa réputation sur ces classements accepte en effet, implicitement, de se plier aux règles fixées par ceux qu’elle cherche à émuler, au lieu de concentrer ses efforts sur certaines missions spécifiques, plus en adéquation avec les besoins particuliers de la communauté locale.
À la lumière de sondages récents menés auprès des établissements, et d’une nouvelle analyse de l’impact des classements sur le système d’enseignement supérieur britannique, ce rapport suggère que si la pratique des classements persiste – et c’est fort probable – le secteur n’aura d’autre choix que d’identifier leurs insuffisances et anomalies pour y apporter les améliorations nécessaires.
Par Peter W.A. West, Université de Strathclyde, Royaume-Uni
This paper presents an application to Ecuador of a computable general equilibrium model with a financial component, following the lead of F. Bourguignon, W. Branson and J. de Melo. Their macro-micro model was introduced in Technical Paper No.1 "Macroeconomic Adjustment and Income Distribution. A Macro-micro Simulation Model".
The authors first review the crisis of the Ecuadorian economy, the stabilization programmes that were implemented by governments and the economic effects of these programmes. Then the model and the corresponding data base are presented and used to perform three dynamic simulations. In the first case, there is no adjustment; in the second simulation, all public expenditures are reduced by the same percentage; and in the third simulation, the annual growth in money supply is reduced. For each simulation, the authors display the effects on growth, imbalances and income distribution. Finally a sensitivity analysis has been undertaken in order to assess the impact ...
OECD Member countries have grown increasingly interested in the use of
contract type arrangements in the 1990s as a means of improving public sector
performance. This interest reflects a number of broad challenges to traditional
governance structures. These challenges include the demand for greater efficiency
through highly adaptive and flexible public sectors and the increasing pressure of
accumulated public debt and fiscal deficits. "Governments must strive to do
things better, with fewer resources, and, above all, differently."
This paper aims to identify the Belgian business cycle and forecast GDP growth based on a large data base of short-term conjunctural indicators. The data base consists of 509 indicators containing information on surveys of Belgium and its neighbouring countries, macroeconomic variables and some worldwide watched indicators such as the US ISM and OECD confidence indicators. The statistical framework used is the One-Sided Generalized Dynamic Factor Model developed by Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Reichlin (2003). The model reduces the variables to their core business cycle information, defined as the part of variation of the variables common to the data set. Well-known indicators such as the EC economic sentiment indicator and the NBB overall synthetic curve contain a high amount of business cycle information. Furthermore, the richness of the model allows to determine the cyclical properties of the series and to forecast GDP growth all within the same unified setting. We classify the variables into leading, lagging and coincident with respect to a reference business cycle defined as the common variation contained in quarter-on-quarter GDP growth. 22% of the variables are found to be leading. Amongst the most leading variables we find asset prices and international confidence indicators such as the ISM and some OECD indicators. In general, national business confidence surveys are found to be coincident, while consumer confidence seems to lag. Although the model captures the dynamic common variation contained in the data set, forecasts based on that information are insufficient to deliver a good proxy for GDP growth given a non-negligible idiosyncratic part in GDP's variance. Lastly, we explore the dependence of the model's results on the data set and show through a data reduction process that the idiosyncratic part of GDP growth can be dramatically reduced. However, this does not improve the forecasts.