Browse by: "2011"

Part I of this paper first presents information on trends and composition of social expenditure as in the OECD Social Expenditure database for the years 1980 – 2007. Over this period, public social expenditure as a percentage of GDP, on average across OECD, increased from 15.6% to 19.2%. Public pension spending (6.4% of GDP) and public health expenditure (5.8% of GDP) are the largest social spending items.

Part I also presents social expenditure indicators that account for the effects of the tax system as well as indicators on private social expenditure. Including both of these features alters country rankings by level of social spending and leads to a convergence of spending-to-GDP ratios across countries. Based on this broader measure net total social expenditure as a percent of GDP at factor costs in 2007 was highest in France and Belgium, at 30% of GDP, and between 22 and 28% of GDP in Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Portugal, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Part II of this paper presents the OECD SOCX Manual. It starts with a discussion of methodological, classification and data issues regarding the gross spending items as in SOCX. It also looks at the methodological aspects of measuring net social expenditure, and presents information on how relevant estimates were derived. Accounting for the effect of the tax system and private social expenditure leads to greater similarity in social expenditure-to-GDP ratios across countries and to a reassessment of the magnitude of welfare states. After accounting for the impact of taxation and private benefits, social expenditure amounts to over 30% of GDP at factor cost in Belgium and France; social expenditure also ranges within a few percentage points of each other in Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Portugal, the United Kingdom and the United States.

The use of tradable greenhouse gas (GHG) units to meet emissions reduction goals is likely to continue after 2012 as many countries have expressed support for using market mechanisms to promote and enhance the cost-effectiveness of mitigation. Most such mechanisms would use tradable GHG units but it is not yet clear how such units will be accounted for and recognised as contributions toward national pledges or targets.

This paper examines the systems and processes that may be required to achieve effective use of tradable GHG units by first considering what international framework would be required to provide a reliable, functional platform for use of tradable GHG units. One effective system would be for national emissions to be reported using common inventory accounting rules, with subsequent additions and deductions according to net flows of tradable units. The paper then analyses more detailed options for two core aspects of GHG unit accounting: governance of international crediting mechanisms and systems for tracking international unit transactions.

For crediting mechanisms, three options are presented for deciding which units may be eligible to count towards national emissions targets: i) only units issued from a centralised mechanism regulated by the UNFCCC would be eligible, ii) units issued from country-led systems would be eligible provided that they are verified to meet internationally-agreed eligibility criteria and iii) a transparency approach whereby all units would be accepted provided that countries meet minimum disclosure requirements. For unit tracking systems, three further options are presented: i) a continuation of the existing International Transaction Log (ITL) that performs both technical and policy-related checks, ii) a ITL or similar tool that performs only technical compatibility checks, and iii) a decentralised system with no central hub. Accounting issues related to domestic emissions trading system units are also explored, notably in cases where such units are traded internationally. The paper concludes that only certain combinations of the various options presented would lead to a viable system that is both practical and provides sufficient assurance of the environmental integrity of units.

Most parents know, instinctively, that spending more time with their children and being actively involved in their education will give their children a good head-start in life. But as many parents have to juggle competing demands at work and at home, there never seems to be enough time. Often, too, parents are reluctant to offer to help their children with school work because they feel they lack some of the skills that would make a difference to their children’s success in school...

La plupart des parents savent d’instinct que le fait de passer plus de temps avec leur enfant et de s’engager activement dans son éducation lui permettra de prendre un bon départ dans la vie. Toutefois, comme la majorité d’entre eux doivent jongler entre impératifs professionnels et familiaux, le temps semble toujours manquer. Par ailleurs, les parents n’osent souvent pas aider leur enfant à faire ses devoirs car ils pensent ne pas avoir les compétences requises pour l’accompagner dans sa réussite scolaire...

Spain and Denmark are two European countries differing considerably in their development and productive structures as well as in their internationalisation process. This affects many dimensions of each economy, most notably their trade volumes, market sizes and product specialization. Spain and Denmark also differ significantly in labour market outcomes as well as in the design of labour market policies and institutions and the role they played in facilitating labour reallocation. For these reasons, it is instructive to compare them, in particular as they have demonstrated substantial labour market adjustments due to changing international economic conditions. While the results of direct comparisons cannot always be translated into policy action due to country-specific institutional settings and varying economic circumstances, comparative analysis has the potential to yield useful insights into best practices and transferrable policy lessons. With this in mind, the purpose of this paper is to consider the evolution of trade and labour market outcomes in Denmark and Spain since the early 1990s, in order to provide policy-relevant insights on the relationship between production, trade and labour markets in these countries. Special focus is given to the increased weight of some emerging economies in world trade patterns and how they have affected the trade patterns of these two European countries and their employment behaviours.

The property losses from the Feb 27th 2010 Maule earthquake are assessed as $18.1Bn paid for 38% by insurers, 47% by the Government of Chile and 15% by individuals and businesses. Including $4Bn damage to infrastructure and the costs of lost economic activity the total loss in 2010 values is estimated to have been close to $28Bn. The report considers policy options for expanding the proportion of future Chilean earthquake losses that would be covered via new and expanded risk transfer mechanisms: for low income homeowners, small commercial enterprises and government buildings. Consideration is also given to how the overall levels of earthquake risk in Chile could be reduced through targeted efforts at risk mitigation. Recommendations are made for how the insurance industry and government in Chile should expand the use of probabilistic catastrophe loss models for defining and pricing risk management options.

In 2010, the international community took steps to improve the system of reporting and verification under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Parties to the UNFCCC decided at the sixteenth meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP 16) to enhance reporting for all countries and to conduct “international assessment and review” (IAR) of certain information from developed countries and “international consultations and analysis” (ICA) of biennial update reports from developing countries.

This is a step change from the existing reporting and review system – particularly for developing countries, since information from these countries is currently reported on an infrequent basis and is not reviewed. Establishing a system that combines improved reporting with some form of international verification could improve the quality of information available internationally and increase confidence in the integrity of the information reported. This would help to build trust between countries and potentially also increase the level of ambition of mitigation actions.

Further decisions need to be made by Parties in order to determine the scope, inputs, process, outputs and frequency of IAR and ICA, as the decisions agreed at COP 16 (known as the “Cancun Agreements”) provide limited guidance on these items. This paper outlines key questions to help guide such decisions and provides suggestions for the possible design and function of IAR and ICA. It outlines how they could build on existing review processes under the UNFCCC and draw on lessons from other multilateral review processes. The challenge for the international community will be to ensure that IAR and ICA are useful processes, both nationally and internationally, while minimising the resource requirements needed to implement them.

This paper examines the relationship between wages and levels of trade and FDI openness in twenty-nine sectors of the Chilean economy. Over the last four decades, this country almost fully liberalized its trade and foreign direct investment, which accelerated growth of flows in both areas and contributed to important changes in the labour market. Using cluster analysis, we divide 29 sectors into three groups of high, medium and low levels of trade and foreign direct investment penetration in 2003 and 2008. Subsequently, an average wage equation is estimated for salaried workers in each group based on their characteristics (gender, education, work experience and union membership) using microdata of the Supplementary Income Survey (SIS) database. Differences between average wages of the three groups are decomposed with the Oaxaca-Blinder method. The results confirm that the group of most open sectors pays a “wage premium” to its workers. It is also shown that most of this premium is accounted for by higher levels of labour unionisation compared to other sectors. An alternative grouping of sectors into two categories of tradable and non-tradable sectors based on export intensity only yields similar results.

These terms of reference articulate a shared view among OECD members about key aspects of the current context for privacy protection and provide orientation for further work on the review of the OECD Privacy Guidelines in light of changing technologies, markets and user behaviour and the growing importance of digital identities.

In this paper, we provide an extensive summary of a field experiment we have recently conducted on the behavioural effects of pay-as-you-drive (PAYD) vehicle insurance (Bolderdijk et al., 2011a). We start with a review of the rationale for PAYD schemes from a behavioural science perspective. Next, we describe the design of our study, and discuss and elaborate on the main empirical findings. Based on this, we present practical guidelines for policy makers and insurance companies aiming to introduce PAYD schemes as a tool to reduce crash risk, improve traffic safety, and reduce the negative environmental impacts of car use.

Ce document examine la relation qui existe en France entre les importations – et plus généralement le commerce – et l’emploi. Il s’inspire des travaux de plus en plus nombreux qui traitent des échanges et des marchés du travail, en tenant compte des théories du commerce au niveau de l’entreprise et de travaux empiriques antérieurs. L’analyse s’appuie sur trois sources permettant de constituer un ensemble de données appariées au niveau de l’entreprise et portant sur les échanges, les variables économiques et l’emploi pour la période 1995-2004. Cet ensemble de données concerne les entreprises manufacturières. Le document formule des estimations sur la relation entre l’emploi et l’activité commerciale au niveau de l’entreprise, d’abord sous une forme agrégée, puis par secteur industriel. Il évalue également la situation des entreprises concernant l’évolution des importations de produits finis et de biens intermédiaires. La conclusion récapitule les résultats obtenus et les rapproche de travaux antérieurs portant sur la relation entre le commerce et l’emploi en France, en signalant quelques explications possibles et des domaines de recherche à approfondir.

Brazil under-invested in infrastructure for over three decades, and infrastructure investment rates have come up only slowly since 2007. Infrastructure needs are sizeable in almost all sectors. It is likely that at its current stage of development the country will benefit from large pay-offs from infrastructure spending. Against this background, the Brazilian authorities have put in place a large infrastructure plan named Growth Acceleration Programme (Programa de aceleração do crescimento, PAC). This programme has been rightly protected from the fiscal cuts announced in early 2011. Nevertheless, some changes to the policy and regulatory framework could be introduced to make public investment more cost-efficient and to foster private participation. In particular: • The second stage of PAC needs to focus on completing the most worthwhile programmes. In addition, the public-private partnership framework should be streamlined. • In most areas, the regulatory framework is working well, but sectors are at different stages of development. Despite important institutional changes in recent years, policy capture is sometimes still influencing some federal and many state regulatory agency decisions. • In spite of some recent progress, frequent disputes appear to delay some infrastructure projects, especially in the energy sector. The main challenge in this area is to hasten the licensing process, while continuing to put appropriate emphasis on environmental and social protection. • Reforms have been implemented in individual network industries, but there is still some room to inject competition in fixed-line telecommunications and to prevent product cross-subsidisation in the electricity sector. Concession contracts in both roads and rail could be refined to foster private investment in maintenance and network expansion. In water and sanitation, where investments are the most needed, smaller municipalities should be encouraged to invest and form consortia to reap economies of scale. This Working Paper relates to the 2011 OECD Economic Review of Brazil 2011 (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/Brazil).

This paper identifies refinements to the macroeconomic framework that will help Brazil to achieve strong performance in a new environment in which population will age at a rapid pace, heavy reliance on oil resources will increase public revenue volatility and uncertainties regarding the external environment are higher, possibly permanently. More specifically, the country needs to pursue fiscal consolidation and remove existing rigidities in the budget process. Over the medium term, moving to a headline budget target would ensure long-term sustainability of public (including social security) accounts, and introducing an expenditure ceiling and removing widespread revenue earmarking would help restrain expenditure. Adopting the proposals to simplify the tax system currently under discussion would improve the business environment, and the government should persevere in its effort to secure political support for them from the states. A pressing challenge is to adapt current transfer mechanisms to ensure regional and inter-generational equity in sharing oil revenues. The establishment of the social fund, which is designed to save part of the oil windfalls and whose investment returns will be allocated to social spending, could help these equity objectives to be reached, so long as it is well designed. The ongoing surge in capital inflows complicates the task of monetary policy and should be addressed through a range of policies, in which fiscal consolidation features prominently. Additional measures such as macro-prudential policies or a temporary tax on short-term capital inflows could also help to prevent the formation of asset price bubbles. This Working Paper relates to the 2011 OECD Economic Review of Brazil 2011 (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/Brazil).

This paper seeks to identify factors explaining the appreciation of the Brazilian real observed since 2003, which was temporarily interrupted only during episodes of financial turbulence. Net foreign assets and the productivity differential relative to Brazil’s main trade partners are found to be significant determinants of the real effective exchange rate in the long run. In the short term, exchange-rate developments are mostly explained by movements in net foreign assets. The production of oil is also found to explain developments in the real effective exchange rate in the long run. These results are robust to a wide range of tests. There is evidence of an over-valuation of the real in 2010, but the extent of the misalignment is hard to gauge. FEER estimations point to an overvaluation between 3-10% in 2010. Dynamic simulations of behavioural exchange-rate equations generally suggest an overvaluation of between 10-20%. However, these estimations remain subject to large uncertainties.

This paper examines, in France, the relationship between imports – and trade more generally – and employment. It builds on the burgeoning literature relating trade and labour markets, taking into account theories of firm-level trade and previous empirical work. The analysis in the paper draws on three data sources to establish a matched firm-level data set covering trade, economic variables and employment for the time period from 1995 to 2004. The data set covers manufacturing firms. The paper develops estimates of the relationship between employment and trade activity at the firm level, first on an aggregate basis and then at industry level. Additional assessments are made with respect to the firms’ experience with changes in imports of finished goods and intermediates. The conclusion sums up the results and relates these to previous work on the relationship of trade and employment in France, pointing to some possible explanations and areas for further research.

Low investment rates are limiting Brazil’s future potential growth rate. This paper analyses a number of potential reasons for these low investment rates and discusses policy options to achieve faster capital accumulation. A shortage of domestic saving appears to be a major constraint to higher investment rates in Brazil. Due to high levels of current expenditures, in particular pension entitlements, public sector saving is negative. In addition to being costly, the pension system redistributes income to individuals with relatively low saving propensities, thereby reducing private saving as well. In order to control pension expenses in the future, this paper suggests a number of parametric pension system reforms. Beyond a scarcity of domestic savings, major curbs on investment include the high level of real interest rates, whose reasons are not easy to pin down, and thin long term credit markets, which are dominated by the national development bank BNDES. Going forward, engaging commercial lenders in the provision of long term funding will be necessary to cover the country’s investment needs. This will require leveling the playing field, which can only be achieved by removing BNDES’ exclusive access to low-cost funding from a workers’ welfare fund and through budget transfers. Another factor limiting investment is the fragmented tax system, which raises firms’ compliance costs and adds to an already high tax burden. Finally, regulatory reforms, including the removal of remaining entry restrictions as well as reductions in trade protection, may reduce firms’ costs and enhance investment incentives. This Working Paper relates to the 2011 OECD Economic Review of Brazil 2011 (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/Brazil).

This paper joins the debate on the size of the middle class in Latin America, analysing its structure and characteristics. The paper investigates inter-class mobility potential and its evolution over time in the case of selected countries. As a result of the estimations, we find that Latin American countries have smaller middle classes than OECD countries. Moreover, this comparison shows that, while middle-class upward mobility potential is not very different, middle class resilience is higher in OECD countries. This suggests that particular attention should be paid to mitigating the impact of economic reversal on middle-class families, as they are more vulnerable to falling into poverty. This analysis provides a tool to identify the features of the middle class that need to be promoted by policy makers to foster middle-class resilience and enhance its stabilising role in society.

This paper examines the role of exports in skill upgrading in the Korean manufacturing sector during the 1990s utilizing a unique plant-level panel data set. The empirical results indicate the important role of exports on relative employment on skilled versus unskilled workers. The main findings are as follows. Firstly, this paper documents the significant degree of skill upgrading that occurred during the 1990s in the Korean manufacturing sector. Secondly, a large part of the increase in the aggregate non-production employment share was due to the �\within. effect, rather than the �\between. effect. This tendency becomes stronger when we use plant-level, rather than industry-level data. Thirdly, most of the �\within. changes were accounted for by the skill-upgrading of exporters, especially those exporters that were either R&D active or large. This is suggestive of the positive interactive effects between exporting and R&D expenditure in skill upgrading. Fourthly, regression analysis shows that both the �\within. and �\between. components of skill composition changes at plant level are strongly and positively correlated with exporting activities, while R&D expenditure is correlated only with the �\within. components.