OECD Economics Department Working Papers

ISSN :: 1815-1973 (online)
DOI :: 10.1787/18151973

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Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.

Explaining the Appreciation of the Brazilian real

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Authors:: Annabelle Mourougane

Publication Date

21 Oct 2011

Bibliographic information

No.:: 901

Pages

DOI

10.1787/5kg3krcwd27k-en

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This paper seeks to identify factors explaining the appreciation of the Brazilian real observed since 2003, which was temporarily interrupted only during episodes of financial turbulence. Net foreign assets and the productivity differential relative to Brazil’s main trade partners are found to be significant determinants of the real effective exchange rate in the long run. In the short term, exchange-rate developments are mostly explained by movements in net foreign assets. The production of oil is also found to explain developments in the real effective exchange rate in the long run. These results are robust to a wide range of tests. There is evidence of an over-valuation of the real in 2010, but the extent of the misalignment is hard to gauge. FEER estimations point to an overvaluation between 3-10% in 2010. Dynamic simulations of behavioural exchange-rate equations generally suggest an overvaluation of between 10-20%. However, these estimations remain subject to large uncertainties.

Keywords:: Brazil, currency, equilibrium exchange rate, FEER, BEER

JEL Classification:

C10: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General / General
F31: International Economics / International Finance / Foreign Exchange