OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers
Sélection d’études sur les questions relatives à l’alimentation, l’agriculture et les pêcheries préparées par la Direction des Échanges et de l’Agriculture.
- ISSN : 18156797 (en ligne)
- https://doi.org/10.1787/18156797
The role of China’s feed deficit in international grain markets
International grain prices experienced a sharp increase during the 2020/2021 marketing season, most likely due to the unprecedented increase of imported grains by China. What would be the possible impact on international grain markets if China remains a strong grain importer? The scenario developed to explore the impact of such a development shows that further increases in Chinese grain imports over the medium term could result in a 4% to 25% increase in agriculture commodity prices compared to what was projected in the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030.
Mots-clés: African Swine Fever, Food price inflation, Cereal trade, Food security, Commodity markets
JEL:
Q11: Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics / Agriculture / Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices;
Q17: Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics / Agriculture / Agriculture in International Trade;
C61: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling / Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis;
F17: International Economics / Trade / Trade: Forecasting and Simulation
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