OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation Development (OECD) and the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, prepared with input from Member governments and international commodity organisations. It provides a consensus assessment of the ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity, fish and biofuel markets at national, regional and global levels, and serves as a reference for forward-looking policy analysis and planning.
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 presents the trends driving food and agricultural markets over the coming decade. While progress is expected on many important fronts, in order to realize the 2030 Agenda and achieve the sustainable development goals (SDGs), concerted actions and additional improvements will be needed by the agricultural sector.
More information can be found at www.agri-outlook.org.
Chapitre :
Statistical Annex
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 - © OECD 2021
| C.2 | World oilseed projections | ||||||||||||
| C.2 | World oilseed projections | ||||||||||||
| Marketing year | |||||||||||||
| | | | Average 2018-20est | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
| | SOYBEAN | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 356.1 | 372.9 | 377.3 | 382.6 | 386.7 | 391.0 | 394.8 | 399.1 | 402.9 | 407.5 | 411.1 |
| | Area | Mha | 125.8 | 129.2 | 129.7 | 130.4 | 130.8 | 131.3 | 131.6 | 132.0 | 132.2 | 132.6 | 132.8 |
| | Yield | t/ha | 2.83 | 2.89 | 2.91 | 2.93 | 2.96 | 2.98 | 3.00 | 3.02 | 3.05 | 3.07 | 3.09 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 358.6 | 370.8 | 376.2 | 381.0 | 386.2 | 391.1 | 395.4 | 398.8 | 402.7 | 406.7 | 410.6 |
| | Crush | Mt | 324.3 | 334.1 | 339.1 | 343.6 | 348.5 | 353.1 | 357.2 | 360.3 | 363.9 | 367.8 | 371.5 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 42.4 | 38.7 | 39.9 | 41.5 | 42.0 | 41.9 | 41.3 | 41.7 | 42.0 | 42.7 | 43.1 |
| | Price 1 | USD/t | 413.1 | 459.1 | 454.6 | 452.0 | 455.0 | 458.8 | 468.7 | 474.7 | 484.2 | 487.1 | 494.2 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 129.6 | 135.3 | 136.6 | 138.0 | 139.3 | 140.8 | 141.9 | 143.2 | 144.4 | 145.9 | 147.2 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 98.3 | 98.0 | 98.0 | 99.4 | 99.9 | 100.7 | 101.1 | 101.6 | 101.9 | 102.5 | 103.0 |
| | Crush | Mt | 89.4 | 89.1 | 89.0 | 90.3 | 90.8 | 91.5 | 91.9 | 92.3 | 92.7 | 93.2 | 93.6 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 18.1 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 11.9 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 12.7 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 226.5 | 237.6 | 240.7 | 244.6 | 247.3 | 250.2 | 252.9 | 255.9 | 258.5 | 261.5 | 263.9 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 260.3 | 272.7 | 278.2 | 281.6 | 286.2 | 290.4 | 294.3 | 297.2 | 300.7 | 304.2 | 307.7 |
| | Crush | Mt | 234.9 | 245.0 | 250.2 | 253.3 | 257.7 | 261.7 | 265.3 | 268.0 | 271.3 | 274.6 | 277.9 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 24.3 | 30.3 | 30.1 | 30.3 | 30.1 | 29.8 | 29.2 | 29.5 | 29.6 | 30.1 | 30.4 |
| | OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 120.2 | 126.5 | 127.6 | 128.9 | 130.0 | 131.3 | 132.3 | 133.5 | 134.5 | 135.8 | 136.9 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 99.1 | 99.5 | 99.4 | 100.9 | 101.5 | 102.3 | 102.8 | 103.4 | 103.8 | 104.5 | 105.0 |
| | Crush | Mt | 90.7 | 90.8 | 90.7 | 92.1 | 92.6 | 93.5 | 93.9 | 94.5 | 94.9 | 95.5 | 96.0 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 18.1 | 8.6 | 10.0 | 11.6 | 12.2 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.9 | 13.0 |
| | OTHER OILSEEDS | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 156.0 | 159.4 | 162.7 | 165.6 | 167.0 | 169.2 | 171.1 | 173.3 | 175.2 | 177.4 | 179.5 |
| | Area | Mha | 88.9 | 90.6 | 91.3 | 91.9 | 92.0 | 92.4 | 92.6 | 92.9 | 93.1 | 93.4 | 93.7 |
| | Yield | t/ha | 1.75 | 1.76 | 1.78 | 1.80 | 1.81 | 1.83 | 1.85 | 1.87 | 1.88 | 1.90 | 1.92 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 157.5 | 159.6 | 162.2 | 165.2 | 166.8 | 169.0 | 171.1 | 173.3 | 175.2 | 177.4 | 179.5 |
| | Crush | Mt | 136.3 | 138.4 | 140.8 | 143.6 | 145.1 | 147.2 | 149.1 | 151.1 | 152.9 | 154.9 | 156.8 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 10.0 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.2 |
| | Price 3 | USD/t | 445.2 | 476.0 | 470.8 | 460.2 | 471.3 | 477.1 | 483.8 | 488.0 | 497.3 | 501.9 | 507.0 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 94.7 | 96.1 | 98.7 | 100.9 | 101.7 | 103.3 | 104.6 | 106.2 | 107.5 | 109.0 | 110.5 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 88.8 | 88.9 | 90.5 | 92.4 | 93.2 | 94.5 | 95.7 | 97.0 | 98.1 | 99.3 | 100.5 |
| | Crush | Mt | 81.5 | 81.7 | 83.3 | 85.1 | 85.8 | 87.1 | 88.3 | 89.4 | 90.5 | 91.7 | 92.8 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 7.7 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 61.3 | 63.3 | 64.0 | 64.8 | 65.3 | 65.9 | 66.5 | 67.1 | 67.7 | 68.4 | 69.0 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 68.7 | 70.7 | 71.7 | 72.8 | 73.6 | 74.5 | 75.4 | 76.3 | 77.1 | 78.1 | 79.0 |
| | Crush | Mt | 54.7 | 56.7 | 57.5 | 58.5 | 59.3 | 60.1 | 60.9 | 61.7 | 62.4 | 63.2 | 64.0 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| | OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 57.7 | 59.9 | 61.5 | 62.4 | 62.6 | 63.3 | 63.9 | 64.6 | 65.0 | 65.7 | 66.3 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 58.2 | 58.8 | 59.5 | 60.5 | 60.8 | 61.4 | 62.0 | 62.6 | 63.0 | 63.6 | 64.1 |
| | Crush | Mt | 52.7 | 53.2 | 53.9 | 54.9 | 55.1 | 55.7 | 56.3 | 56.9 | 57.3 | 57.8 | 58.3 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 6.4 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| | PROTEIN MEALS | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 353.7 | 363.4 | 368.8 | 374.3 | 379.4 | 384.6 | 389.3 | 393.2 | 397.4 | 401.9 | 406.3 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 353.8 | 363.1 | 368.6 | 374.0 | 379.3 | 384.5 | 389.2 | 393.1 | 397.3 | 401.8 | 406.2 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 14.1 | 13.7 | 14.0 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 14.5 | 14.6 | 14.7 | 14.9 |
| | Price 4 | USD/t | 354.4 | 391.0 | 390.2 | 385.4 | 384.1 | 389.9 | 397.4 | 404.3 | 411.7 | 416.4 | 422.2 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 114.8 | 115.0 | 115.8 | 117.8 | 118.6 | 119.8 | 120.7 | 121.7 | 122.5 | 123.6 | 124.5 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 126.7 | 126.7 | 127.6 | 128.2 | 128.2 | 128.6 | 129.1 | 129.4 | 129.5 | 129.9 | 130.1 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 238.9 | 248.3 | 253.1 | 256.5 | 260.8 | 264.8 | 268.5 | 271.5 | 274.9 | 278.4 | 281.8 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 227.0 | 236.3 | 240.9 | 245.8 | 251.1 | 255.9 | 260.1 | 263.7 | 267.8 | 271.9 | 276.1 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 11.8 | 11.4 | 11.7 | 12.0 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 12.5 | 12.6 |
| | OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 104.7 | 105.2 | 105.7 | 107.4 | 108.1 | 109.2 | 110.0 | 110.8 | 111.5 | 112.3 | 113.1 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 132.4 | 133.2 | 134.0 | 134.6 | 134.9 | 135.5 | 136.1 | 136.6 | 136.9 | 137.4 | 137.8 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| | VEGETABLE OILS | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 212.9 | 219.7 | 222.9 | 226.6 | 229.3 | 232.4 | 235.4 | 238.2 | 241.1 | 244.0 | 246.9 |
| | of which palm oil | Mt | 76.3 | 80.1 | 81.2 | 82.4 | 83.4 | 84.5 | 85.6 | 86.7 | 87.7 | 88.9 | 90.0 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 213.6 | 218.7 | 222.0 | 225.8 | 229.3 | 232.4 | 235.3 | 237.9 | 240.8 | 243.7 | 246.6 |
| | Food | Mt | 142.0 | 145.6 | 147.2 | 150.3 | 153.2 | 155.7 | 158.2 | 160.8 | 163.4 | 166.0 | 168.8 |
| | Biofuel | Mt | 31.9 | 32.5 | 33.3 | 33.5 | 33.8 | 34.0 | 33.9 | 33.6 | 33.5 | 33.6 | 33.4 |
| | Exports | Mt | 87.2 | 88.1 | 89.1 | 90.5 | 91.5 | 92.4 | 93.2 | 94.0 | 95.0 | 95.9 | 96.9 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 19.0 | 19.4 | 20.3 | 21.1 | 21.1 | 21.1 | 21.3 | 21.6 | 21.9 | 22.3 | 22.6 |
| | Price 5 | USD/t | 783.6 | 899.2 | 878.5 | 871.0 | 883.6 | 912.1 | 935.0 | 948.8 | 971.7 | 987.9 | 1 005.7 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 53.4 | 53.3 | 53.9 | 55.0 | 55.4 | 56.1 | 56.7 | 57.4 | 57.9 | 58.5 | 59.1 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 57.6 | 58.1 | 58.3 | 58.5 | 58.7 | 58.8 | 58.6 | 58.2 | 58.2 | 58.2 | 58.2 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 159.5 | 166.4 | 169.0 | 171.5 | 173.9 | 176.3 | 178.7 | 180.9 | 183.2 | 185.5 | 187.8 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 156.0 | 160.6 | 163.7 | 167.3 | 170.6 | 173.6 | 176.6 | 179.7 | 182.5 | 185.5 | 188.4 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 15.2 | 15.6 | 16.5 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 17.4 | 17.8 | 18.1 | 18.4 | 18.7 |
| | OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 43.5 | 43.6 | 44.0 | 44.8 | 45.1 | 45.6 | 46.0 | 46.3 | 46.7 | 47.1 | 47.4 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 58.6 | 59.4 | 59.6 | 59.8 | 60.1 | 60.3 | 60.1 | 59.7 | 59.7 | 59.7 | 59.7 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| Note: Average 2018-20est: Data for 2020 are estimated. Prices are in nominal terms. | |||||||||||||
| Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer | |||||||||||||
Soybean, U.S., CIF Rotterdam (October/September). | |||||||||||||
Excludes Iceland and Costa Rica but includes all EU member countries. | |||||||||||||
Rapeseed, Europe, CIF Hamburg (October/September). | |||||||||||||
Weighted average protein meal, European port (October/September). | |||||||||||||
Weighted average price of oilseed oils and palm oil, European port (October/September). | |||||||||||||
| Source: OECD/FAO (2021), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database).dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en | |||||||||||||