Browse by: "D"

Dynamic scoring – taking full account of all the economic effects of policies when estimating their budgetary effects – is almost self-evidently attractive. But it is formidably difficult to achieve. This paper assesses the key conceptual and practical challenges it poses and considers the pros and cons of adopting it. The objective should be to provide more useful information while being robust to the political debate.

In the last few years, the growth in the amount of economic and financial data available has prompted econometricians to develop or adapt new methods enabling them to summarise efficiently the information contained in large databases. Of these methods, dynamic factor models have seen rapid growth and become very popular among macroeconomists. In this paper, we carry out a survey of recent literature on dynamic factor models. We start by presenting the models used before looking at parameter estimation methods and statistical tests available for choosing the number of factors. We then focus on recent empirical applications dealing with the construction of economic outlook indicators, macroeconomic forecasts, and both macroeconomic and monetary policy analyses.

Earlier studies in the OECD project on decoupling estimated static models of crop production incorporating risk aversion, following the analytical framework in OECD (2001). In contrast, this paper studies primarily dynamic models of crop investment. The province of Manitoba is selected as an example of Canadian prairie crop production, and investment is defined as current expenditure on machinery and equipment for Manitoba crop production (the data are not crop specific). This is the first econometric study of dynamic crop investment decisions for Canada, and as far as can be ascertained this is the first econometric study for any country of dynamic crop investment under risk aversion. Econometric results are used to simulate impacts of agricultural programmes on crop investment.

Global value chains (GVCs) in agriculture and food sectors are becoming an important part of the agro-food trading landscape, influencing both the nature of the gains from trade and the impacts of trade policies. This study explores the changes in trade in value added that are occurring within agro-food GVCs and the implications that participation in agro-food GVCs has had on the agro-food sectors. It makes use of a database on trade in value added for 22 agro-food sectors derived from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database. The study finds that between 2004 and 2014, agro-food sectors have been increasing their participation in GVCs and that the links created within these production networks have become more “global” in nature. At the same time, agro-food GVCs have become increasingly centred around hubs in the People’s Republic of China and Germany where large amounts of value added are funnelled before reaching the end consumer. The study also finds that participation in agro-food GVCs is beneficial for sector development and growth – both in aggregate terms and in terms of domestic value added from exports. Of key importance has been the use of foreign value added and access to a wide diversity of imported inputs. However, policies that restrict trade and limit market openness reduce participation and sector growth and development – including policies that create barriers to trade in agro-food products themselves. In addition, the study finds that the use of services value added in exports is an important factor that contributes to sector growth, which highlights the importance of the broader policy environment to enhance the benefits from agro-food GVCs.

This report presents a new effort to collect comprehensive metadata for DynEmp and MultiProd, two OECD distributed microdata projects that collect information to analyse employment dynamics and productivity in a harmonised way across countries. It gives an overall description of both projects, presents the methodologies used for the data collection, summarises the main features of the data by country and provides further country-specific information.

The transition to climate neutrality requires cost reductions in existing clean technologies to enable rapid deployment on a large scale, as well as the development of emerging technologies such as green hydrogen. This policy paper argues that science, technology, innovation, and industrial (STI&I) policies focusing on developing and deploying low-carbon technologies are crucial to achieving carbon neutrality. It notes however that the current level of innovation is insufficient to meet the net-zero challenge due to a policy emphasis on deployment rather than research and development (R&D) support. The paper explores the rationale for more ambitious STI&I policies targeted at R&D for climate neutrality and provides policy recommendations for an effective innovation policy for net-zero, including its interaction with the broader climate policy package.

This report contains an empirical analysis of the productivity and sustainability performance of different types of farms in thirteen countries. Farm productivity performance is measured through estimates of average productivity levels and through annual rates of technical change. Evidence on the environmental sustainability of farm groups is based on an index that reflects environmental pressure per hectare and the local environmental sustainability of production practices. In addition to environmental sustainability, the analysis also considers fundamental differences across farms with respect to farm structure, innovation of operations, individual characteristics as well as farm location. Productivity performance by farm classes is related to the environmental sustainability performance and to other farm characteristics in order to shed light on the factors that drive or impede farm performance. Empirically identifying the main conditions for and obstacles to performance improvement supports the development of effective and efficient policies targeting the performance of farms. This analysis contributes in particular to a better understanding of the synergies and trade-offs between productivity and environmental sustainability performance.

Divestment by multinational enterprises is an important yet understudied phenomenon. The few available estimates indicate that about a fifth of all foreign affiliates are divested every five years. This paper presents the findings from a novel cross-country firm-level dataset with financial and ownership information for over 62 000 foreign-owned affiliates from a selection of 41 OECD and G20 countries and their economic groups from 164 home countries for the period 2007-2014. The data allow an assessment of the relative importance of different determinants of divestment in a cross-country setting, including host country policies and bilateral factors, including trade, investment and tax agreements. The findings confirm that parents divested about one of every five foreign-owned affiliates between 2007-2014 and show that a number of host country policy and economic factors, including labour costs and international trade agreements, influence the divestment decision, on top of the firm considerations considered in previous studies.