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  • 19 Nov 2008
  • R. J. Nicholls, S. Hanson, Celine Herweijer, Nicola Patmore, Stéphane Hallegatte, Jan Corfee-Morlot, Jean Château, Robert Muir-Wood
  • Pages: 62
  • in OECD Environment Working Papers
This global screening study makes a first estimate of the exposure of the world's large port cities to coastal flooding due to storm surge and damage due to high winds. This assessment also investigates how climate change is likely to impact each port city's exposure to coastal flooding by the 2070s, alongside subsidence and population growth and urbanisation. The study provides a much more comprehensive analysis than earlier assessments, focusing on the 136 port cities around the world that have more than one million inhabitants in 2005. The analysis demonstrates that a large number of people are already exposed to coastal flooding in large port cities. Across all cities, about 40 million people (0.6% of the global population or roughly 1 in 10 of the total port city population in the cities considered here) are exposed to a 1 in 100 year coastal flood event. For present-day conditions (2005), the top ten cities in terms of exposed population are estimated to be Mumbai, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Miami, Ho Chi Minh City, Kolkata, Greater New York, Osaka-Kobe, Alexandria and New Orleans; almost equally split between developed and developing countries. When assets are considered, the current distribution becomes more heavily weighted towards developed countries, as the wealth of the cities becomes important. The top 10 cities in terms of assets exposed are Miami, Greater New York, New Orleans, Osaka-Kobe, Tokyo, Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Nagoya, Tampa-St Petersburg and Virginia Beach. These cities contain 60% of the total exposure, but are from only three (wealthy) countries: USA, Japan and the Netherlands. The total value of assets exposed in 2005 is across all cities considered here is estimated to be US$3,000 billion; corresponding to around 5% of global GDP in 2005 (both measured in international USD)...

This article examines how much of the dispersion in economic performance across OECD countries can be accounted for by the proximity to areas of dense economic activity. To do so, various indicators of distance to markets and transportation costs are added as determinants in an augmented Solow model, which serves as a benchmark. Measures of distance to markets are found to have a statistically significant effect on GDP per capita. And the estimated economic impact is far from negligible. The reduced access to markets relative to the OECD average could contribute negatively to GDP per capita by as much as 11% in Australia and New Zealand. Conversely, a favourable impact of around 6-7% of GDP is found in the case of two centrally-located countries: Belgium and the Netherlands. The paper provides also some tentative evidence that spending on R&D and human capital might have a stronger effect on GDP per capita in countries with a higher degree of urban concentration.

French
This paper analyses the determinants of structural unemployment rates in a two-stage approach. First, time-varying NAIRUs are estimated for a panel of OECD economies on the basis of Phillips curve equations using Kalman filter techniques. In a second stage, the estimated NAIRUs are regressed on selected policy and institutional variables. As predicted by theoretical wage-setting/price-setting models, the level of the tax wedge and the user cost of capital are found to be important drivers of structural unemployment. Consistent with earlier studies, the level of product market regulation, union density and the unemployment benefit replacement rate also play an important role in explaining changes in the NAIRU although there is considerable variation in estimates across countries. Nonetheless, the set of structural variables provides a reasonable explanation of NAIRU dynamics over the period 1978-2003, even though recent decreases are better explained than the earlier surge.
Il paraît évident de prime abord que la découverte d’un gisement de pétrole ou de cuivre est une très bonne nouvelle. Mais il arrive souvent que cette promesse tourne mal. La manne des ressources naturelles peut générer de la pauvreté, de la discorde, de la corruption, des inégalités, une croissance en berne et des pratiques antidémocratiques. Ce phénomène est connu comme la « malédiction des matières premières ». Cette étude du paradoxe de l’abondance passe en revue les initiatives à adopter pour que les ressources du sous-sol bénéficient aux pays qui en détiennent. Deux pays richement dotés en ressources ont su conjurer la malédiction et ont prospéré. Leur parcours est analysé en détail. La Norvège a découvert du pétrole et s’est enrichie grâce à ses choix de politiques et des institutions qui lui ont permis de gérer judicieusement sa trouvaille. Le Chili détient de vastes gisements de cuivre. Son histoire est totalement différente, mais lui aussi a su agir de sorte à ne pas tomber dans le piège d’une dépendance excessive.
English
The report argues that aid volatility is an important source of volatility for the poorest countries. Following a method already applied by the Agence Française de Développement, the report argues that loans to LICs should incorporate a floating grace period, which the country could draw upon when hit by a shock. The definition of a shock should include aid uncertainty, along with others such as commodity shocks and natural disasters. The idea is calibrated to a key IMF policy instrument towards Low-Income Countries, the Poverty-Reducing and Growth Facility (PRGF).
Avez-vous déjà envisagé de comparer le nombre d’hommes et de femmes qui occupent un emploi salarié ? Dans quelle mesure exactement les femmes sont-elles moins bien payées que les hommes ? Qui sont les dirigeants d’entreprises, quelle est la proportion de personnes de sexe féminin parmi eux ? La parité homme-femme est-elle une réalité au sommet de l’État ?
English
The well-coordinated terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001 presented the world with a new aviation security threat: the capture of aircraft in flight to be used as human-guided missiles. The two previous threats—hijacking an aircraft for ransom and putting a bomb aboard an aircraft—had led to varying degrees of screening of baggage and passengers in developed countries, plus some use of on-board security personnel on selected flights in some countries. In the wake of 9/11, governments in the United States, Canada, and Europe (at both national and EU levels) implemented a number of additional aviation security measures, among them: - strengthened (and locked) cockpit doors; - 100% screening of checked baggage; - more thorough screening of passengers and their carry-on baggage; - increased use of on-board security officers; - increased attention to air cargo; - and greater attention to airport access control and perimeter control (...)
French
Le rapport se structure comme suit : il commence par quelques considérations générales sur la lutte contre le terrorisme pour situer la question dans son contexte, présente ensuite un exemple provocateur de calcul, par le biais d’une l’analyse des risques, du rapport coût/efficience de plusieurs mesures prises après le 11 septembre pour sécuriser le transport aérien, compare après cela, en se fondant sur les résultats de ce calcul, la substance, les coûts et les risques des politiques de sûreté de l’aviation menées après le 11 novembre par les États-Unis, le Canada et les États membres de l’Union européenne et détaille, enfin, quelques pistes à suivre pour mieux adapter la politique de sûreté de l’aviation aux risques.
English
National security is a basic responsibility of national governments, but it is also intangible. What can economic analysis contribute? Benefit-cost analysis has rarely been applied because of the ambiguous and commons nature of the benefits. Our group at the University of Southern California’s Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism (CREATE) has worked to elaborate and apply economic impact analysis to describe the expected losses from various hypothetical terrorist attacks. Our innovation has been to add a spatial dimension to operational inter-industry models.
French
This paper studies sovereign debt crises during the period 1993-2006 through the prism of the primary sovereign bond market. Two conclusions emerge. First, investment banks price sovereign default risk well before crises occur and before investors detect default risk. Between three and one years prior to the onset of a crisis, sovereign default risk countries paid to investment banks on average 1.10 per cent of the amount issued, close to double the average paid by emerging countries overall in the same period (0.56 per cent). In contrast, the level of sovereign bond spreads prior to crises is on average only slightly higher than for emerging countries (385 vs. 319 basis points), suggesting that investment banks have an information advantage with respect to investors and are the only parties compensated for the risk of sovereign debt crises. Second, investment banks’ behaviour differs depending on the type of sovereign debt crisis. Before crises, investment banks charged on average a higher underwriting fee to countries presenting public finances difficulties than to other sovereign debt crisis countries. The robustness of these results is verified through panel data analysis. The results are puzzling in that they indicate that valuable, publicly available information is not tracked by investors to help improve allocation of their emerging market fixed income assets.
La sécurité nationale relève de la responsabilité fondamentale des États, mais elle est aussi de caractère intangible. Que peut apporter une analyse économique à cet égard? Dans ce domaine, l’analyse coûts-avantages a rarement été utilisée parce que les avantages sont ambigus et assimilables à des biens publics. Notre groupe, au Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism (CREATE) de l’Université de Californie du Sud, s’est attaché à approfondir et appliquer l’analyse d’impact économique pour décrire les pertes prévisibles dans diverses hypothèses d’attentats terroristes. L’innovation, dans nos travaux, tient à la dimension territoriale que nous avons ajoutée à des modèles intersectoriels opérationnels. Dans un souci de plausibilité, les scénarios d’attentats terroristes doivent comporter des précisions géographiques.
English

Abstract: This review contains the Main Findings and Recommendations of the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) and the report of the Secretariat. It was prepared with examiners from the United States and Australia for the Peer Review meeting held on 26 June 2007. The review noted that the European Community as a donor disbursed over USD 10 billion in official development assistance in 2006, while the European Commission plays a potentially important “federating” role for the institutions of all 27 Member States of the European Union. The DAC commended both the role of the Commission in reshaping its development co-operation and the progress made since the 2002 Peer Review in delivering Community assistance. It welcomed a 2007 policy that seeks better division of labour among the Commission and the Member States and the 2005 European Consensus on Development which outlines a common policy framework for them. The DAC noted a number of challenges facing the European Community, including: ensuring that European Union policies take forward the development focus of the Consensus; implementing these policies effectively at the country level; and continuing to reform the institutions and to simplify the procedures. 

French

Abstract: This review contains the Main Findings and Recommendations of the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) and the report of the Secretariat. It was prepared with examiners from the Netherlands and Greece for the Peer Review meeting on 8 June 2007. Among the main issues covered were: the significant funding for official development assistance (ODA) and the welcome decision on the part of the Danish Government to maintain its ODA at a minimum of 0.8% of gross national income; the solid legal grounding, resulting from the long-standing support for development assistance; the integrated, decentralised, development co-operation system, which facilitates effective aid delivery and provides flexibility for aligning and harmonising programmes; the positive emphasis on quality assurance; the need to pursue Denmark’s efforts in meeting the commitments of the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness; the need to further develop and disseminate learning both within and outside Danida, especially in areas of high interest for the donor community, like mainstreaming crosscutting issues, capacity development and decentralisation; and the need to make further progress on aid untying. 

French
  • 31 Oct 2008
  • Espen Erlandsen
  • Pages: 35

Il n’existe pas de données toutes faites sur les services fournis par les hôpitaux et les ressources qu’ils consomment qui permettraient d’effectuer des comparaisons internationales d’ensemble de l’efficacité des hôpitaux.

Cet article s’appuie donc sur des indicateurs sélectifs pour comparer l’efficacité des hôpitaux dans un échantillon de pays de l’OCDE, sur la base de trois approches différentes, à savoir : i) les coûts unitaires pour des interventions hospitalières types ; ii) les niveaux d’efficacité globale entre pays pris deux à deux ; iii) la variabilité de l’efficacité entre hôpitaux d’un même pays. L’analyse montre des différences substantielles de performance entre pays. S’il est difficile d’évaluer dans quelle mesure ces comparaisons donnent une image cohérente des niveaux d’efficacité nationaux, car le nombre de pays couverts varie d’une approche à l’autre, des vérifications par recoupement des différents jeux d’indicateurs tendent à confirmer la robustesse du classement des pays.

English
  • 31 Oct 2008
  • François Marical, Marco Mira d’Ercole, Maria Vaalavuo, Gerlinde Verbist
  • Pages: 40

Les statistiques sur la distribution des revenus déduisent du revenu des ménages les impôts directs et cotisation sociales qu'elles acquittent sans pour autant tenir compte des services financés au moyen de ces impôts. Vu qu’un grand nombre des services assurés par les administrations publiques sont accessibles à la population gratuitement ou à des tarifs subventionnés, les statistiques sur la distribution des revenus surestiment le degré d’inégalité dans la distribution des ressources. Cet article examine l’ampleur du phénomène et évalue son influence sur les inégalités entre pays. Les estimations de l’effet des services publics sur la distribution statique du revenu des ménages obtenues à l’aide de deux approches différentes révèlent que la prise en compte de ces services réduit sensiblement les inégalités de revenu entre les pays sans pour autant modifier notablement leur classement, cet effet étant plus marqué aux extrémités de la distribution des revenus.

English
By Hansjörg Blöchliger and Claire Charbit

Fiscal equalisation is a transfer of fiscal resources across jurisdictions to offset disparities in revenue raising capacity or public service cost. It covers on average 2.5% of GDP or 5% of total government expenditure across OECD countries. Equalisation reduces fiscal disparities by two-thirds on average and in some countries levels them virtually out. Strong equalisation comes at a price: on average, around 70% of a jurisdiction’s additional tax income must be dedicated to an equalisation fund. The equalisation rate is generally higher for jurisdictions with low fiscal capacity, reducing their tax effort and likely to slow down regional economic convergence. Cost equalisation is larger than revenue equalisation in terms of GDP despite smaller cost disparities, pointing at inefficiencies in the distribution formulae. Fiscal equalisation can be pro-cyclical but most countries succeed in reducing fluctuations of entitlements, sometimes at the cost of sub-central budget needs. Fiscal equalisation is very country specific, and data and analysis must be taken with care.

French
  • 31 Oct 2008
  • Romain Duval, Lukas Vogel
  • Pages: 41

Bien que les fluctuations cycliques de l’activité se soient atténuées au cours des années récentes, leur ampleur et leur évolution continuent de différer sensiblement entre pays de l’OCDE. L’une des explications à cette hétérogénéité est que les pays affichent différents degrés de résilience à des chocs communs.
Cet article explore la contribution des politiques et des institutions sur les marchés financiers, du travail et des biens et services à ces écarts de résilience. À partir de régressions sur un panel de 20 pays de l’OCDE portant sur la période 1982-2003, l’article identifie l’impact des politiques sur deux dimensions de la résilience : l’effet d’un choc à l’impact et sa persistance ultérieure. Il ressort que les politiques et les institutions entraînant des rigidités sur les marchés du travail et des biens et services atténuent l’impact initial d’un choc mais rendent cet effet plus persistant, tandis que des politiques favorisant le développement des marchés hypothécaires réduisent la persistance et ainsi améliorent la résilience.
Combinant ces deux dimensions de la résilience, l’article utilise ensuite les équations estimées pour construire des indicateurs de résilience pour chacun des pays de l’OCDE concernés, sur la base de leurs politiques et de leurs institutions actuelles ou récentes. Cette analyse fait ressortir trois groupes de pays. Dans les pays anglophones, les simulations suggèrent que les chocs ont un impact initial significatif, mais que celui-ci se dissipe assez rapidement. A contrario, dans de nombreux pays d’Europe Continentale, l’impact initial des chocs est atténué, mais leurs effets se font ressentir plus longtemps et la perte de production cumulée tend à être plus élevée que dans les pays anglophones. Enfin, quelques petits pays Européens combinent à la fois un impact modéré des chocs et un retour relativement rapide à l’équilibre.

English

Abstract: This review contains the Main Findings and Recommendations of the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) and the report of the Secretariat. It was prepared with examiners from Belgium and Switzerland for the Peer Review Meeting on 10 October 2007. This peer review of Canada’s development co-operation programme highlights Canada’s renewed commitment to Africa; a promising approach toward fragile states, such as Haiti and Afghanistan; initiatives to make Canadian aid more effective, focusing on accountability and explaining results to the Canadian public and parliament; and strong commitment to good humanitarian donorship (GHD). Canada still faces some challenges, including: i) strengthening the mandate for development co-operation and for CIDA, while addressing some of the agency’s fundamental structural issues; ii) producing a policy for development co-operation which focuses on reducing poverty; iii) articulating an approach to policy coherence for development; iv) continuing to increase aid to meet Canada’s commitments made at Monterrey; v) focusing its aid on fewer partner countries in order to generate stronger impact and voice; and vi) galvanising the implementation of the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness. These steps are needed if Canada’s performance is to match its ambition to become a leading player in the donor community. 

French
This paper examines the short-term distributional effects of a number of tax and labour market reforms in the euro area, drawing on simulations using a micro-founded dynamic general equilibrium model. A heterogeneous household sector with two groups of consumers is considered. The first group maximises intertemporal utility over an infinite horizon in the presence of habit persistence. The second group is liquidity constrained and has no access to financial markets for intertemporal income transfers. It thus spends its disposable income entirely on current consumption. Although the examined reforms are estimated to boost aggregate consumption and output immediately after implementation, they have sizeable distributional effects. In particular, liquidity-constrained households may incur transitional losses after a cut in the benefit replacement ratio. Lowering employment and/or price adjustment costs could markedly reduce these short-term costs. A suitable compensation scheme could also reduce the uneven distribution of transitional losses, but at the expense of lower aggregate gains in the long run.
This paper examines the nature and the length of economic adjustments to selected structural reforms, drawing on a variety of approaches: descriptive analysis and simulations using Dynamic General Equilibrium and macro-economic neo-Keynesian models. The descriptive analysis suggests that the correlation between reforms, including a change in the tax wedge, the replacement ratio or anti-competitive product market regulation and the structural unemployment rate peaks only after 5 to 10 years. Lowering employment and price adjustment costs in the euro area to their respective US levels would only have a relatively limited effect on the speed of adjustment to labour market and tax reforms. Monetary policy reaction can speed up the adjustment to a new equilibrium, though to a varying degree in the different OECD countries or regions. In particular, reforms in individual euro area countries are likely to trigger only little or no policy reaction, unless there is an area-wide effort to implement reforms.
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