Browse by: "PRE-2008"
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It is a well recognised rule in international law that the property of aliens cannot be taken, whether for public purposes or not, without adequate compensation. Two decades ago, the disputes before the courts and the discussions in academic literature focused mainly on the standard of compensation and measuring of expropriated value. The divergent views of the developed and developing countries raised issues regarding the formation and evolution of customary law. Today, the more positive attitude of countries around the world toward foreign investment and the proliferation of bilateral treaties and other investment agreements requiring prompt, adequate and effective compensation for expropriation of foreign investments have largely deprived that debate of practical significance for foreign investors.
Disputes on direct expropriation – mainly related to nationalisation that marked the 70s and 80s -- have been replaced by disputes related to foreign investment regulation ...
The survey submissions indicate that bilateral donors and multilateral agencies have become much more active in TRTA/CB over the last few years, particularly since the 2001 WTO Doha Ministerial Conference. This increased activity is not only reflected in increased funding for TRTA/CB, but also in the number of donors/ agencies with explicit strategies and programming guidelines for TRTA/CB; enhanced awareness among donors of the importance of TRTA/CB for development and poverty reduction; and the strengthened, and sometimes institutionalised, dialogue between development and trade practitioners. In addition, several donors and agencies have recently embarked on ambitious reviews of their own bilateral TRTA/CB programmes and/or their participation in multilateral programmes, in order to assess the effectiveness of their TRTA/CB activities.
This paper examines the recent slowdown in bank lending that has affected several large OECD countries. The analysis begins with a description of the importance of bank credit in the financial systems of the countries considered. The origins of the lending slowdown are analysed - - including the importance of deteriorating bank balance sheets and the BIS capital rules - - as well as its potential to depress economic activity. The paper concludes with a discussion of how monetary policy should react to unusually sluggish bank lending ...
In recent years a greater demand for strengthening the role of the legislature in the budget process has become evident worldwide: more than a quarter of countries have revised their constitutions over the last 15 years to give Parliament more powers. In particular, several African countries are experiencing pressure to increase the legislature’s role in the preparatory stage of the budget process and as a check on the executive. This article argues that there are risks in allowing greater parliamentary activism, but that a greater risk is associated with marginalising the role of Parliament in the budget process. The article sets out options for designing a role for Parliament that allows it sufficient oversight, while managing the risks of ill-disciplined parliamentary action leading to excess spending or of Parliament becoming a conduit for narrow, ineffective spending demands.
Monetary policy affects activity, and ultimately inflation, in a number of ways. The most important of these is generally considered to be through the effect of interest rates directly on the demand for goods by households and firms. However, monetary policy can also influence activity through its impact on the value of assets that, in turn, will influence the behaviour of households and firms; e.g. by changing wealth and, through an impact on balance sheets, borrowing costs. Recent financial market developments may have made these effects of monetary policy more important but at the same time less easy to predict. In particular, the size of financial markets has risen relative to activity and readily tradable assets are becoming increasingly important relative to other financial assets. Prices of such assets tend to be sensitive to shifts in market expectations about the future course of general economic developments and in particular interest rates. With these changing financial ...
Many African countries are benefiting from reductions in their external debt. One important objective is to redirect the budgetary resources released from servicing external debt towards poverty-reducing expenditures. Several questions arise in this context. First, are the public expenditure management (PEM) systems of African countries robust enough to allow specific povertyreducingexpenditures to be identified in annual budgets and tracked in countries’ accounting systems? Second, does the expenditure control system allow poverty-reducing expenditures to be protected from cuts should there be unforeseen shortfalls in revenues? Third, are internal and external audit mechanisms effective, so as to ensure the integrity of expenditure reports, both in-year and annually? To answer these and other questions, an assessment of the entire PEM system is required in each country. Such a study has already been prepared.1 During 2001, the PEM systems of 24 low-income countries were assessed based on a common set of 15 questions in the areas of budget preparation, budget execution, and fiscal reporting. Figure 1 shows the results for two regions of Africa (Anglophone countries and Francophone countries) – well below what is required to meet the objectives of effective PEM systems (both regions attained only about 40% of the required benchmarks)...
Market Exchange Rates (MER) balance the demand and supply for international currencies, while Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) exchange rates capture the differences between the cost of a given bundle of goods and services in different countries. When undertaking multi-country analysis of environmental issues (such as climate change) that includes different currencies, a decision has to be made as to whether to use PPP or MER in the analytical framework. The distinction between them is particularly germane in inter-temporal studies that postulate future scenarios. PPPs are generally favoured for their closer link to welfare, but MERS are necessarily the basis of international trade, so it is difficult to choose between them. Some authors have noted some empirical regularity between them and have sought to exploit this to avoid choosing between PPP and MER. In this paper, it is shown that such ad hoc adjustments are not necessary when structural changes are accounted for.
This paper reports on the construction of an Input-Output table for the economy of Morocco. The table is calibrated to the year 1990 and details the interactions between 133 primary, manufacturing, and service sectors, relying on a combination of a more aggregate table estimated by the Moroccan government and detailed data from official sources. This table will form the core of a detailed social accounting matrix (SAM) currently under construction as part of the same work programme. Ultimately, the SAM will be incorporated into a general equilibrium model, to be used cooperatively by the Development Centre, the Moroccan government, and the World Bank for trade and resource policy analysis. This report describes in detail the construction of the Input-Output table, presents the table in its entirety, and provides some preliminary multiplier estimates elucidating the links between Moroccan agriculture and the rest of the economy ...
This paper presents an application to Ecuador of a computable general equilibrium model with a financial component, following the lead of F. Bourguignon, W. Branson and J. de Melo. Their macro-micro model was introduced in Technical Paper No.1 "Macroeconomic Adjustment and Income Distribution. A Macro-micro Simulation Model".
The authors first review the crisis of the Ecuadorian economy, the stabilization programmes that were implemented by governments and the economic effects of these programmes. Then the model and the corresponding data base are presented and used to perform three dynamic simulations. In the first case, there is no adjustment; in the second simulation, all public expenditures are reduced by the same percentage; and in the third simulation, the annual growth in money supply is reduced. For each simulation, the authors display the effects on growth, imbalances and income distribution. Finally a sensitivity analysis has been undertaken in order to assess the impact ...
OECD Member countries have grown increasingly interested in the use of
contract type arrangements in the 1990s as a means of improving public sector
performance. This interest reflects a number of broad challenges to traditional
governance structures. These challenges include the demand for greater efficiency
through highly adaptive and flexible public sectors and the increasing pressure of
accumulated public debt and fiscal deficits. "Governments must strive to do
things better, with fewer resources, and, above all, differently."
This paper aims to identify the Belgian business cycle and forecast GDP growth based on a large data base of short-term conjunctural indicators. The data base consists of 509 indicators containing information on surveys of Belgium and its neighbouring countries, macroeconomic variables and some worldwide watched indicators such as the US ISM and OECD confidence indicators. The statistical framework used is the One-Sided Generalized Dynamic Factor Model developed by Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Reichlin (2003). The model reduces the variables to their core business cycle information, defined as the part of variation of the variables common to the data set. Well-known indicators such as the EC economic sentiment indicator and the NBB overall synthetic curve contain a high amount of business cycle information. Furthermore, the richness of the model allows to determine the cyclical properties of the series and to forecast GDP growth all within the same unified setting. We classify the variables into leading, lagging and coincident with respect to a reference business cycle defined as the common variation contained in quarter-on-quarter GDP growth. 22% of the variables are found to be leading. Amongst the most leading variables we find asset prices and international confidence indicators such as the ISM and some OECD indicators. In general, national business confidence surveys are found to be coincident, while consumer confidence seems to lag. Although the model captures the dynamic common variation contained in the data set, forecasts based on that information are insufficient to deliver a good proxy for GDP growth given a non-negligible idiosyncratic part in GDP's variance. Lastly, we explore the dependence of the model's results on the data set and show through a data reduction process that the idiosyncratic part of GDP growth can be dramatically reduced. However, this does not improve the forecasts.
- During the 1980s, following the Mexican payments crisis of August 1982, a number of debt "plans" and "strategies" have been introduced, but overall progress in resolving the situation has been slow. This paper results from a project to investigate the relationship between macroeconomic developments in OECD countries and those in debtor countries. The aim is to develop tools that can help to throw light on the importance of international linkages, including those between OECD and debtor countries, in order to understand better why many of the hopes and expectations of the various debt plans have not been realised.
- This paper presents a set of models for Latin America (DEMOD) that can be used to analyze the impact of the world macroeconomy on the economies of Latin America; these have been designed to focus in particular on growth and debt servicing capacity and to trace the development of creditworthiness indicators. In addition, debt accounting models for the highly indebted ...
The Kyoto Protocol covers emissions of a range of greenhouse gases. Yet, most attempts to quantify the economic impact of implementing the Protocol’s emission targets for the period 2008-12 have focused exclusively on CO2 emissions. This paper extends previous OECD analysis confined to CO2 alone so as to cover also emissions of methane and nitrous oxide. The paper concludes that the economic costs of implementing the targets in the Kyoto Protocol are lower than suggested by an analysis confined to CO2 alone. However, over the longer term, when larger cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are required in order to have any material effect on climate, most abatement will likely have to come from CO2 and the inclusion of other gases in the analysis may not substantially alter estimates of economic costs ...