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This paper assesses the possible dynamic effects of occupational entry regulations (OER) on productivity. It combines firm-level productivity data with a new cross-country policy indicator measuring the stringency of OER by the presence of administrative burdens, qualifications requirements, and mobility restrictions, for five professional and ten personal services. The evidence suggests that bold reforms easing OER, especially those concerning qualification requirements, could help increase the contribution of personal and professional services to aggregate productivity growth via two channels: the acceleration of their catch up to best global practices (within-firm channel), where firms in regulated sectors could gain up to 2.5 percentage points of productivity on average; and a higher contribution of labour reallocation to firms’ employment growth (between-firm channel), which could increase by up to 10 percent for the most productive firms.
This paper studies the association between occupational licensing and job hire and job separation rates along with earnings of job stayers and job-to-job movers. In contrast to previous studies, it attempts to provide macro-level estimates by relying on a novel Job-to-Job Flows database from the U.S. Census Bureau, covering the near universe of job transitions. The empirical analysis exploits variation in licensing regulation across states and industries and constructs indicators for both the share of employment subject to licensing (the extensive margin) and the strictness of regulation (the intensive margin). Results show that more extensive and stricter licensing are both associated with lower job mobility. This holds for job-to-job mobility as well as for transitions in and out of nonemployment. The strictness indicator points to lower job-to-job mobility from entry restrictions and renewal requirements to licensing, while education and training requirements may increase job-to-job mobility. The analysis also finds a negative association between licensing restrictions for people with a criminal record and job hire from nonemployment. Further analysis shows that interstate job-to-job mobility tends to be lower towards states with more extensive and stricter licensing regulation. The results from the analysis of earnings are generally mixed and mostly insignificant. However, there is some evidence of lower earnings gains from job-to-job moves to states with more licensing within the same industry, which may reflect lower productivity growth because of weaker reallocation of labour resources and reduced competition.
This work investigates how education and training policies may facilitate occupational transitions. It proposes a methodology to estimate cognitive and task-based skill distances across occupation. It identifies the occupational transitions that can occur upon small (of up to 6 months), moderate (up to 1 year) or important (up to 3 years) (re)training spells. “Possible” transitions, i.e. transitions implying reasonable upskilling needs and similar knowledge areas, are distinguished from “acceptable” occupations, i.e. possible transitions entailing limited loss of human capital and income, if any. Possible and acceptable transitions exist for the quasi-totality of occupations, when up to one year of training is considered. Low-skilled occupations display fewer acceptable transitions and generally require higher cognitive or task-based skills. Transitions for many high-skilled occupations entail important wage decreases or skills excesses. Acceptable transitions for occupations at high-risk of automation are harder to find, and tend to require cognitive and task-based skills-related training.
This study proposes experimental estimates of the monetary cost of the training needed to move workers across occupations. Occupations of destination are held “acceptable” if they are close, in terms of skills requirements, and entail small wage cuts and skills excesses (if any) relative to the occupation of origin.
The total estimated cost encompasses the direct cost of undertaking the training, and workers’ opportunity cost, in terms of foregone wages. The minimum cost of moving workers in occupations at high risk of automation (ROA) to occupations where they are not at such risk (so called “safe haven”) is estimated to range between 1-5% of one year GDP, on average across the countries considered.
At the worker level, occupational transitions’ costs increase with the cognitive skills and the average age of the workers in the occupation of origin, and with the proportion of workers at high ROA in manufacturing.
This paper offers an analytical framework for understanding the evolution of India’s software industry and its place in the broader economy. It then considers how well the framework helps to answer three questions: i) What difference has the IT sector made to aggregate economic performance, at national and at state level? ii) What has been the impact of IT-sector growth on income distribution and on poverty? iii) What policy or other measures might enhance the benefits of the sector’s growth to ordinary Indians? ...
This paper provides an overview of the evolving nature of digital trade and digital trade policies. It shows that digital trade has been growing faster than “non-digital” trade. By 2018, 24% of global trade (USD 5.1 trillion) could be considered digital trade. In parallel, countries have embraced digital trade provisions in trade agreements and new digital economy agreements have emerged. The empirical analysis shows that growing digital connectivity delivers a double dividend, increasing both domestic and international trade. It also shows that digital trade chapters have the potential to double the effect of trade agreements, while reductions in domestic barriers affecting digital trade have a strong export-enhancing effect, particularly in digitally-deliverable services. Overall, the results suggest that digital connectivity and digital trade policies play a significant and growing role in reducing trade costs and increasing trade across countries at all levels of development. The paper calls for wider participation and ambition in discussions at the WTO.
This paper, originally presented at the 1981 meeting of the OECD Working Party of Senior Budget Officials, discusses the fundamental purposes of budgeting and explores how off-budget expenditures weaken a government’s financial control. The paper gives insights on many aspects of budgeting that are still relevant today: the transformation of the public sector, the interface with the private sector, the scope and size of government, the role of regulation, the emergence of new organisational forms, and the use of performance objectives and long-term planning.
European multinationals show a growing divergence in their response to the formation of regional trade blocs, according to evidence from seven industries. European firms that are strong competitors at the world level are able to adjust aggressively to changes within Europe without disturbing their global strategies. Weaker firms are prone to becoming more inward-looking in Europe, and to risk further loss of global competitive position. The contrast is particularly marked in industries like chemicals and consumer products, which emphasize exports as a means to serve international markets, and the weaker firms are especially prone to call for protectionist help from Brussels in trade-intensive industries, like apparel. While the lobbying pressures on national and European institutions differ according to the global competitive strength of the leading European firms in a particular industry, the effect is one-sided: the pressure for protection or support is strong in industries where the ...
This report examines official development assistance (ODA) allocations by regime context, the kind of support donors provide to different regime types and if and how donors respond to processes of democratisation and autocratisation. The analysis covers country allocable ODA provided by all official donors to 124 ODA recipients. The report aims to inform policy discussions on existing ODA allocations by regime type and their underlying rationale. This report also proposes a series of policy questions for further reflection.
This working paper provides a broad picture of official financial flows for infrastructure development in developing countries by bilateral and multilateral development partners. Multilateral development banks are further examined in a special section. The paper offers an overview volumes and distributions of financial flows, including those channelled to private sector operations and those mobilised from the private sector by guarantees, syndicated loans and collective investment vehicles. This report, which builds on previous work on the topic, will contribute to research and policy dialogue on filling the financial gap in infrastructure in developing countries. It will also support the monitoring of Sustainable Development Goal 9 and the discussions of the G20 on infrastructure development.
About 40% of employment in manufacturing is in services functions. This paper develops a measure of narrow outsourcing, matching services functions performed by workers inside manufacturing firms to the same services functions provided by outside suppliers. The measure allows us to analyse the competition that, say, workers at the IT services desk in manufacturing firms face from outside IT suppliers. Narrow outsourcing is entered into labour demand functions where labour is broken down on business functions using OECD data combined with the 2016 releases of the World Input Output Database (WIOD). On average, a one percentage point increase in narrow local outsourcing of services reduces manufacturing employment in the same services function by between 1.5% (R&D) and 3% (transport). The impact of offshoring on manufacturing labour demand is small on average, but depends strongly on the complexity of the value chain, the policy environment and technology. Manufacturing employment is more services intensive the longer the value chain. In-house IT functions complement and support offshored IT functions, while offshored R&D functions tend to replace in-house R&D. Tentatively, technology as measured by IT maturity and the length of the value chain is more important for employment in services functions in manufacturing than is offshoring.
While the second half of the 20th century was characterised by a growing integration of the global economy, in recent years there have been growing calls for protectionism and reshoring. At the same time, COVID-19 resulted in higher levels of remote working, which showed that many jobs could be done from anywhere and could, in theory, be offshored. The future of offshoring and reshoring is therefore highly uncertain. This document summarises some of the key issues and trends with regards to offshoring and reshoring. It then sets out a research agenda which would result in a better understanding the future of offshoring and reshoring and their impact on domestic labour markets, which would help policy makers in OECD countries plan for the changes that lie ahead.
This paper analyses the factors influencing the price of oil and its likely evolution over the next quarter century. It begins by investigating the fundamental forces shaping long-term oil price developments, highlighting the importance of growth-led demand for oil, particularly that emanating from fast-growing, energy-intensive developing countries, and the implications of increasingly geographically concentrated oil reserves. The paper presents oil price projections to 2030 and examines the sensitivity of the projections to the assumptions about growth and non-OPEC supply. While certain combinations of factors could lead to a significantly higher oil price, the projections also suggest that the optimal strategy of resource-rich oil producers would be to prevent it rising too far. The paper then documents short-term influences on the oil price, which peaked at $50 a barrel in 2004, and notes that they have probably led to a significant departure from the long-run equilibrium price ...
The rapid increase -- over the next thirty years -- in the population share of persons above retirement age has led to a steady increase in attention paid by OECD Governments to questions concerning old age income maintenance. The attached paper looks at the proper role the Government can play in the provision of income for the elderly. The analysis starts with a discussion of the outcomes that can be expected under private contracting, in the absence of any specific Government intervention. Equity and efficiency concerns with these outcomes are identified, and the paper then examines how alternative forms of Government intervention, including comprehensive public old age pension schemes, can potentially improve on these outcomes. Explicit consideration is given to limitations on Governments' ability to achieve desired goals, as well as market distortions introduced by Government intervention ...
The development of purchasing power parities as converters of national accounts aggregates to comparable volume figures is important for international economic comparisons. This study is primarily concerned with the aggregation of price relativities to basic heading level: that is, the level below which there are no expenditure weights available across all of a given group of countries. Eight possible methods of aggregation to basic heading level are identified and appropriate summary statistics developed to assist in the subsequent practical investigation of these methods. This is undertaken using price data for 37 basic headings in ten OECD countries ...